证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 12 日 1 月理财规模季节性下降 ——理财规模跟踪月报（2026 年 1 月） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1 月理财规模季节性下降。我们测算，截至 2026 年 1 月末，理财规模合计 32.5 万 亿元，较上年末下降 0.8 万亿元。2026 年春节较晚，理财规模月度增长节奏可能与 春节较晚的 2021 年类似。2021 年 1 月理财规模下降了 0.66 万亿元。1 月份银行的 工作重心往往在存贷款开门红上，理财经理可能会引导客户阶段性赎回理财来冲存 款规模；此外，今年 1 月份理财收益"打榜"乱象规范可能也对理财增长产生了暂 时性的影响。我们预计 2 月理财规模将回升 1 万亿左右，存款利率较低及春节前不 少企业发放年终奖有望带动 2 月理财规模明显回升。2026 年理财规模有望增长 3 万 亿左右。 1 月理财公司固收理财平均当月年化收益率回升。2022 年初以来，理财公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the wealth - management scale continued to decline, with a monthly decrease of 1.142 billion yuan, contrary to market expectations of a rebound. Looking ahead, before the Spring Festival in February, the scale may show a moderate growth trend [1][9]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, while the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [2][35]. - Interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds compressed their durations, while medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased their durations [3][44]. - The supply scale of government bonds increased significantly in early February, with a planned issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week of February [50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - Month Wealth - Management Scale Decline 3.1.1 Weekly Scale - From January 19 - 23, the wealth - management scale continued to rise, with a week - on - week increase of 7.41 billion yuan to 33.35 trillion yuan, higher than the historical same - period level. From January 26 - 30, due to the drive of funds returning to the balance sheet, the scale decreased by 178.8 billion yuan to 33.18 trillion yuan, and the decline was more than seasonal [8]. 3.1.2 Wealth - Management Risks - Product net values continued to rise, and the proportion of negative yields remained low. The proportion of all products with negative yields in the interval remained low at 0.96%. The wealth - management break - even level slightly increased, with the break - even rate of all products rising by 0.03 pct to 0.2%. The proportion of products with unmet performance targets continued to decline, with the non - performance rate of all wealth - management products dropping by 0.3 pct to 23.9% [15][24]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Inter - bank Continued to Decline - From January 26 - 30, affected by cross - month demand, capital prices seasonally increased. The average weekly trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the average overnight proportion also decreased. The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [32][35]. 3.3 Interest - Rate and Credit - Type Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds Compressed Durations - From January 26 - 30, due to insufficient incremental information at the end of the month, institutions were still cautious in their operations. The average weekly durations of interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased [42][44]. 3.4 Government Bond Supply Scale Increased Significantly in Early February - In the first week of February (February 2 - 6), the planned issuance of government bonds was 906.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week. The estimated net payment scale of government bonds was about 460.4 billion yuan, still higher than the weekly median payment level since 2025. In terms of different types of bonds, the net payment scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased [50][53].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the wealth management market, with a total scale reaching 33.29 trillion yuan and a net increase of 3.34 trillion yuan in 2025, marking an 11.15% growth compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a decline in average returns on wealth management products, the number of investors increased by approximately 18 million, reaching 143 million by the end of 2025 [4][6] - There is a notable shift in asset allocation towards public funds, while the proportion of direct equity and bond investments has decreased [7][8] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of 2025, there were 159 banks and 32 wealth management companies offering a total of 46,300 products, an increase of 14.89% from the beginning of the year [2] - The wealth management market's scale has seen a continuous growth trend, with the annual increase exceeding 3 trillion yuan for the second consecutive year [2] - The dominance of wealth management companies is evident, holding 92.25% of the market share in terms of product scale [2] Group 2: Product Performance - The average yield of wealth management products fell to 1.98% in 2025, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from 2024 [4] - The total earnings generated for investors reached 730.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.87% increase year-on-year [4] - The trend of declining yields is consistent with the downward movement of market interest rates, with the average yield closely tracking the 10-year government bond yield [5] Group 3: Investor Behavior - By the end of 2025, the number of individual investors increased by 17.69 million, indicating a growing interest in wealth management products despite lower yields [6] - The risk appetite among individual investors has shifted, with a rising proportion of those with higher risk tolerance [6] - The majority of individual investors still prefer low-risk products, with 95.73% of the total product scale classified as low to medium risk [7] Group 4: Asset Allocation Trends - There has been a significant increase in the allocation to public funds, rising from 2.9% to 5.1% of total investments by the end of 2025 [7][8] - The allocation to cash and bank deposits also increased, from 23.9% to 28.2% [7] - Conversely, the allocation to bonds decreased from 43.5% to 39.7%, while equity investments dropped from 2.6% to 1.9% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management scale is projected to reach 33.3 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, reflecting a decrease of only 500 billion yuan from 33.8 trillion yuan at the end of November, which is a decline of 1.48%, significantly lower than historical averages [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The average month-on-month decline in wealth management scale in December over previous years was approximately 800 billion yuan, while the 2025 December decline was much less than market expectations [1] - The strong demand for scale from wealth management subsidiaries and the "price comparison effect" due to low deposit rates effectively mitigated the outflow pressure from year-end assessments [1] Group 2: Credit Bonds and Future Outlook - The stable performance of wealth management scales provides strong support for short- to medium-term credit bonds [1] - For 2026, "fixed income +" products are expected to remain a core growth driver, with an anticipated scale increase of at least 1.2 trillion yuan, leading to an overall wealth management scale potentially exceeding 36 trillion yuan for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the end of December 2025, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to reach 33.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of only 500 billion yuan from the end of November, which is a decline of 1.48%, significantly lower than historical levels [1] Group 1 - The average month-on-month decline in wealth management scale in December over previous years was approximately 800 billion yuan, while the decline in December 2025 exceeded market expectations [1] - The strong demand for scale from wealth management subsidiaries and the proactive drive for growth, combined with the low deposit interest rates creating a "price comparison effect," effectively mitigated the outflow pressure from year-end assessments [1] - The stable performance of wealth management scale provides strong support for short- to medium-term credit bonds [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, "fixed income +" products are expected to remain the core growth point, with an anticipated scale increase of at least 1.2 trillion yuan [1] - The overall wealth management scale is expected to surpass 36 trillion yuan for the entire year [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights significant fluctuations in the bond market following two important meetings, with the 30-year government bond yield experiencing a range between 2.23% and 2.28% [1][23] - The first main line of analysis focuses on the supply and demand issues for government bonds in 2026, with expectations of a net supply increase from 6.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to a range of 6.5 to 7.2 trillion yuan [2][25] - The second main line discusses speculation around structural interest rate cuts, particularly the LPR, due to weak demand and real estate data, with a notable decline in residential short-term loans [3][26] Group 2 - The report suggests that if the LPR structural interest rate cut is implemented, the bond market may experience a positive reaction, with potential rapid growth in demand towards the year-end [4][33] - The analysis indicates that the long-end interest rate's upward boundary is becoming clearer, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.85% [5][36] - The report emphasizes that the current bond market may be entering a turning point, with bullish forces beginning to emerge, suggesting a more optimistic strategy compared to early December [7][39] Group 3 - The report notes a slight decrease in the scale of wealth management products as the year-end approaches, with a weekly decline of over 1,000 billion yuan [40] - It highlights that the net value drawdown of pure bond products has continued to narrow, with the proportion of negative yields decreasing [47][56] - The report indicates that the overall performance of wealth management products is improving, with the proportion of products not meeting performance standards declining to 26.4% [56][61]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight strengthening on December 17, with long-term bonds performing better, as government bond futures rose across the board and interbank bond yields fell by approximately 2 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.63% to 112.14, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 108.005, and the 5-year main contract up by 0.06% to 105.84 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" decreased by 2.5 basis points to 2.254%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield fell by 0.95 basis points to 1.843% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 3.12 basis points to 4.143% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.1 basis points to 1.974% [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 28-day and 91-day government bonds at 1.1220% and 1.2957%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.09 and 2.69 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 468 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.275% [6]. Institutional Views - Huaxi Fixed Income noted that the bond market's short-term fundamentals are not the main pricing driver, with concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply overshadowing expectations for loose monetary policy [7]. - Zheshang Bank indicated that the overall liquidity is stable, and there are no significant adverse policies or events affecting the bond market, suggesting that further declines are unlikely [8]. - CITIC Securities mentioned that seasonal factors may lead to a slight contraction in the scale of wealth management products, but this is expected to recover quickly in early January [8].

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale increased by CNY 960 billion to CNY 33.61 trillion from December 1-5, indicating a seasonal rebound[1] - The scale is expected to face pressure as December is a traditional quarter-end month, with weekly reductions anticipated starting from the second week of December[1] - Historical data suggests that the weekly decline in wealth management scale could reach CNY 3,000-4,000 billion by the last week of December[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank system rose from 107.13% to 107.37% during the week[2] - Exchange leverage levels slightly decreased from 123.01% to 122.99%, showing a downward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions showed insufficient motivation to increase leverage, with their average leverage level declining from 112.19% to 112.10%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds compressed from 3.49 years to 3.36 years, marking a continuous decline over five weeks[3] - In contrast, the duration of credit-based medium and long-term bond funds increased from 2.13 years to 2.20 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds saw their durations extend, with average durations rising from 1.38 years to 1.42 years for medium-term funds and from 0.76 years to 0.79 years for short-term funds[3] Group 4: Risk Alerts - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy alterations[4]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - In November, the wealth management scale increased slightly by 729 billion yuan, reaching 33.57 trillion yuan[1] - The week of November 24-28 saw a decrease of 1,328 billion yuan due to market adjustments and seasonal factors, which is consistent with historical trends[1] - The average increase in wealth management scale for the same period since 2020 (excluding 2022) was 2,300 billion yuan, indicating current performance is below seasonal expectations[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average interbank leverage ratio rose from 107.01% to 107.13% during the week, indicating a recovery in lending willingness among banks[2] - The exchange leverage ratio also increased from 122.75% to 123.01%, reflecting a stable upward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions have begun to increase leverage, with their average leverage level rising from 111.71% to 112.19%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate bond funds decreased from 3.51 years to 3.49 years, while credit bond funds saw a slight reduction from 2.14 years to 2.13 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds also experienced a reduction in duration, with averages dropping from 1.40 years to 1.38 years[3] - The duration of short bond funds increased slightly from 0.75 years to 0.76 years, indicating a mixed trend in duration adjustments[3] Group 4: Risk Indicators - The proportion of negative returns among wealth management products rose to 25.0%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The overall rate of products not meeting performance standards increased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.0%, with notable rises in various banking institutions[1] - The net value of wealth management products has shown significant withdrawal, with a recorded drop of 26 basis points in rights-based products[1]

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration of all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, which is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, up 0.12 years week-on-week, at the 84.50th percentile, while the standard deviation increased to 2.72, at the 97.10th percentile [1][9][18] Group 2 - The turnover rate of interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate of credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate of 10-year and above government bonds decreased to 1.92%, at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The turnover rate of 5-7 year medium-term notes increased to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile [1][9][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have high turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][9][18] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][9][18] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the leverage ratio for broad-based funds increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][9][18] Group 4 - The total scale of wealth management products in the market increased by 30.25 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value of wealth management products remained stable at 0.73% [1][9][18] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced slight changes [1][9][18] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for those with a duration of one month or less and one to three years, while others remained stable or increased [1][9][18]