赔率思维应对转债高估值环境 —— 8 月转债投资策略与关注个券 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 08 月 05 日 [李一爽 Table_ First固定Author 收益]首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [赔率思维应对转债高估值环境 Table_Title] ——8 月转债投资策略与关 注个券 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 05 日 债券研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [T债券able_ ...

Group 1 - The market performance this week exceeded expectations, driven by factors such as increased interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, appreciation of the RMB, stabilization of military conflicts in the Middle East, and anticipated visits from Trump to China [1] - Incremental capital sources include a marginal recovery in newly issued active equity public funds, rapid follow-up from leveraged funds, and a potential acceleration of insurance capital entering the market since mid-June [1] - The market's future performance will be dominated by capital and valuation, with a bullish long-term outlook for the index, although short-term fluctuations are expected rather than a continuous surge [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, a better strategy is to position at low levels and utilize odds thinking, with ongoing high-low switching being a key market signal [2] - The sectors that have shown relative underperformance since March 2020 but have seen marginally improved profit expectations recently are worth attention, including semiconductors, solid-state batteries, power grid equipment, industrial metals, and beer [2] - Caution is advised regarding short-term volatility risks in the banking sector as capital accelerates and the cost-effectiveness of stock-bond spreads decreases [2]

Core Views - The market is expected to remain in a "top and bottom" scenario, with attention on the upcoming Lujiazui Forum and FOMC meeting for further guidance [2][3] - The recent trading volume of micro-cap stocks is approaching levels seen in November 2023, indicating a crowded market, but the odds of participating in small-cap trends are currently low [2][5] - With the current trading volume not significantly increasing, the speed of sector rotation may remain rapid, with themes like innovative drugs and new consumption already fully played out [2][4] Market Dynamics - The short-term market lacks clear upward momentum, with increased divergence near key levels, but strong support exists at the market bottom [3] - Structural pressures on the macro economy persist, with manufacturing and domestic demand needing improvement, with potential for trend improvement in the second half of the year [3] - The financing balance remains stable at around 1.8 trillion, indicating a baseline scenario of stock game [3] Sector Rotation Opportunities - Recent adjustments in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors suggest a need for investors to reassess their positions [4] - The current internal rotation within innovative drugs and new consumption is relatively sufficient, with a decline in cost-effectiveness [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume has dropped to a low since 2023, presenting potential excess return opportunities in low-positioned technology sectors with industrial catalysts [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of "odds thinking" in investment strategy, suggesting a focus on relatively low-crowded technology sectors such as AI computing chips, storage chips, optical fibers, and smart driving [6] - Mid-term focus should be on core assets represented by A50, consumption, and finance, especially considering the potential for RMB appreciation due to "de-dollarization" [6]