Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada (BoC) has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations, due to economic weakness and anticipated inflation remaining near the 2% target [3][8]. Economic Conditions - The BoC cited ongoing weakness in the labor market and excess capacity in the economy as reasons for the rate cut, with core inflation stubbornly around 3% and broader indicators suggesting potential inflation at approximately 2.5% [7][8]. - The central bank has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward for the next two years, from 1.8% to 1.2% for 2025 and to 1.1% for 2026, attributing this to the impact of U.S. trade policies [8]. Inflation and Employment - The latest inflation data showed a year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.4% in September, exceeding market expectations [8]. - The unemployment rate remains high at 7.1%, with low business investment and hiring intentions contributing to economic pressures [8][9]. Trade Relations - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. have created significant uncertainty, with tariffs negatively impacting Canada's economic capacity and increasing costs [9][10]. - The BoC's Governor, Tiff Macklem, emphasized that monetary policy cannot offset the damage caused by tariffs, and the economic outlook remains uncertain due to these trade conflicts [9][10]. Future Outlook - The BoC indicated that the current rate cut cycle may be nearing its end unless there are changes in inflation or economic prospects [10]. - Market economists are cautious about further rate cuts, with most expecting the policy rate to remain at 2.25% until the end of the following year [10].

Group 1 - Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, calling him "incompetent" and indicating a change in leadership is expected by May next year [1][2][3] - The U.S. stock market showed slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.45%, S&P 500 up 0.09%, and Nasdaq up 0.35% [1] - Microsoft saw a significant rise, with shares increasing nearly 4%, and its market capitalization reaching $4 trillion due to a new agreement with OpenAI [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its upcoming meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% [3] - Recent reports indicate that foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market has rebounded, with $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly figure since November 2024 [4] - Morgan Stanley's chief China equity strategist expressed confidence in the Chinese stock market, citing macroeconomic stability, improved global investor confidence, and significant advancements in innovation [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, labeling him as "incompetent" and indicating a potential change in leadership by May 2024 [2][3][4] - Trump is expected to decide on the next Federal Reserve Chairman by the end of this year, with a shortlist of five candidates being prepared by Treasury Secretary [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its upcoming meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% [4] Group 2 - The article highlights a rebound in foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, with $4.6 billion net inflow in September, the highest since November 2024 [6] - Morgan Stanley's chief China equity strategist expresses confidence in the Chinese stock market, citing three main reasons: stabilization of the macro economy, increased global confidence in Chinese policies, and low current investment positions among global investors [6]

Group 1 - The October PMI data will be released on October 31, with September's manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will take place from October 27 to 30 in Beijing, co-hosted by various government and financial regulatory bodies, focusing on "Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping Global Financial Development" [1] - Domestic oil prices are expected to see their ninth reduction of the year on October 27, with predictions indicating a decrease exceeding 50 yuan/ton, based on the latest international crude oil price trends [1] Group 2 - A "Super Central Bank Week" is approaching, with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan set to announce interest rate decisions on October 30, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The disclosure of Q3 financial reports for A-share listed companies will conclude next week, with 4,347 companies scheduled to release their reports from October 27 to 31 [1] - Over 480 billion yuan in market value of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with 41 stocks set to have their restrictions lifted [1] Group 3 - Three new stocks are set to be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28, with a subscription code for each [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 22, the lead price fluctuated at a high level, and the recycled lead price was mainly stable. The supply side has limited short - term increase in primary lead production due to refinery maintenance, and the recycled lead supply is expected to increase. The demand side has a strong wait - and - see attitude among downstream enterprises, and the overall demand is in a slow recovery stage. Considering the inventory situation and the upcoming super central bank week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to remain high next week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,160 yuan/ton, with a flat change; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,993 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. The 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 88,572 lots, an increase of 1,744 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,728 lots, an increase of 870 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 24,977 tons, a decrease of 3,156 tons. The SHFE inventory was 41,701 tons, an increase of 1,785 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货 Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 39.69 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.09 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average开工 rate of primary lead was 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points, and the weekly output was 3.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,396 yuan, down 75 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points, and the monthly output was 22.42 tons, a decrease of 6.75 tons. The global lead mine production was 379.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 16 thousand tons, and the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, an increase of 1.27 tons [3]. 产业 Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, a decrease of 1,596.29 tons, and the export volume was 2,752.22 tons, an increase of 957.7 tons. The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries was 9,991.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand pieces, an increase of 1,925 thousand pieces. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 2,002.86 points, an increase of 22.32 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, an increase of 47.46 tons, and the new energy vehicle production was 133.3 tons, an increase of 15.7 tons [3]. Industry News - On October 22, the lead price fluctuated at a high level, and the recycled lead price was mainly stable. The price of reduced lead was reported at 15,800 - 15,900 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead was reported at 15,800 - 15,850 yuan/ton ex - factory [3].