近强远弱格局 主力震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 豆粕周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约跌29收于1076.25美分/蒲式耳， 跌幅2.62%；豆粕01合约涨47收于3083元/吨，涨幅 1.55%；华南豆粕现货涨60收于3060元/吨，涨幅1.32%； 菜粕01合约涨14收于2411元/吨，涨幅0.58%；广西菜粕 现货涨20收于2500元/吨，涨幅0.81%。 ⚫ 12月USDA报告美豆平衡表未作调整，影响偏中性，阿根 廷小幅度下调大豆出口关税，情绪上带来偏空影响，市 场对美豆出口需求担忧 ...

数据显示，12月2日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价10198.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格(9745.00 元/吨)升水453.75元/吨。 (12月2日)今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等级:三级; | 广西防城 | 10190元/吨 | 市场价 | 广西/防城港市 | 广西防城市场 | | 等级:三级; | 安徽合肥 | 9960元/吨 | 市场价 | 安徽省/合肥市 | 安徽合肥市场 | | 等级:三级; | 福建厦门 | 10140元/吨 | 市场价 | 福建省/厦门市市 | 福建厦门市场 | | 等级:三级; | 广东东莞 | 10140元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省/东莞 | 广东东莞市场 | | 等级:三级; | 安徽六安 | 9940元/吨 | 市场价 | 安徽省/六安市 | 安徽六安市场 | 【市场资讯】 监测显示，11月28日，国内菜籽油38万吨，周环比下降1万吨，月环比下降8万吨，同比下降1万吨。 澳大利亚农业资源经济局(ABARES ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the context of the expectation of a new crop's high - yield and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of new cotton's high - yield, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the amount of the increase have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton's expectation. Among them, the increase in the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Prices - **Domestic Cotton Futures**: On August 21, CF01 was 14030, down 25 (-0.18%) from August 20; CF09 was 13770, down 30 (-0.22%); CF09 - 01 was -260, down 5 [3]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: In Xinjiang, it was 15038 on August 21, down 42 (-0.28%); in Henan, 15274, down 30 (-0.20%); in Shandong, 15208, down 30 (-0.20%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1008, down 17 [3]. - **Domestic棉纱 Futures**: CY was 20060 on August 21, down 5 (-0.02%) [3]. - **Domestic棉纱 Spot**: C32S price index remained at 20700 on August 21, with no change [3]. - **US Cotton Spot**: CT (USD/磅) was 67.53 on August 21, with no change; the arrival price was 77.20, 1% quota pick - up price was 13602, and sliding - duty pick - up price was 14358, all with no change [3]. Spread Data - **Yarn - Cotton Spread**: The futures spread was 6030 on August 21, up 20; the spot spread remained at 756 [3]. - **Internal - External Spread (Spot)**: It was 1636 on August 21, down 30 [4]. Other Data - **Cotton Import Profit (Shandong - US Cotton 1% Quota)**, **National Cotton Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons)**, **Spinning Mill Finished - Product Inventory (days)**, **Weaving Mill Finished - Product Inventory (days)**, and **Cotton Grey Cloth Inventory** are presented in graphical form in the report, showing historical data trends [4].

Group 1: Report Core Data - On August 20, the domestic cotton futures CF01 was 14,055, down 45 or -0.32% from the previous day; CF09 was 13,800, down 20 or -0.14% [3] - The domestic cotton spot price in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15,080; in Henan, it was 15,304, up 4 or 0.03%; in Shandong, it was 15,238, down 5 or -0.03% [3] - The domestic棉纱 futures CY was 20,065, down 80 or -0.40% from the previous day; the domestic棉纱 spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20,700 [3] - The US cotton spot CT was 67.53 USD/pound, unchanged; the arrival price was 77.20, down 0.3 or -0.39%; the 1% quota pick - up price was 13,602, down 52 or -0.38%; the sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14,358, down 29 or -0.20% [3] - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6,010, down 35; the yarn - cotton spread (现货) was 756, up 23 [3] - The domestic - foreign spread (现货) was 1,589, down 47 from the previous day [4] Group 2: Core View - Under the expectation of a new crop's high yield and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent [4] - From late July to early August is the window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy - related meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the implementation of new cotton high - yield, whether the import sliding - scale duty quota is increased and the increase amount have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton expectation. Among them, the situation of increasing the import sliding - scale duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a cotton data daily report dated August 14, 2025, provided by ITG Guomao Futures [2][3] Group 2: Market Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 increased from 13,980 to 14,130, a rise of 150 or 1.07% - CF09 rose from 13,735 to 13,830, an increase of 95 or 0.69% - CF09 - 01 decreased from -245 to -300, a drop of 55 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - Xinjiang cotton price increased from 15,052 to 15,057, a rise of 5 or 0.03% - Henan cotton price rose from 15,219 to 15,233, an increase of 14 or 0.09% - Shandong cotton price increased from 15,159 to 15,170, a rise of 11 or 0.07% - Xinjiang - main continuous basis decreased from 1,072 to 927, a drop of 145 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures - CY increased from 20,015 to 20,195, a rise of 180 or 0.90% [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Spot - C32S price index rose from 20,620 to 20,670, an increase of 50 or 0.24% [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/lb) remained unchanged at 68 - The arrival price increased from 76.40 to 78.10, a rise of 1.7 or 2.23% - 1% quota delivery price increased from 13,463 to 13,758, a rise of 295 or 2.19% - Sliding - duty delivery price increased from 14,264 to 14,456, a rise of 192 or 1.35% [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) increased from 6,035 to 6,065, a rise of 30 - Yarn - cotton spread (现货) decreased from 801 to 698, a drop of 103 - Domestic - foreign spread (现货) decreased from 1,696 to 1,412, a drop of 284 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - In the expectation of a new - crop bumper harvest and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent - From late July to early August is a window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the realization of a new - cotton bumper harvest, the issuance of import sliding - duty quotas and the issuance volume have an impact on the Zhengzhou cotton market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of the expected high yield of new cotton crops and the reality of the shortage of old - crop inventories, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August is a window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of the high yield of new cotton, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the magnitude of the increase all have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the supply - demand of old crops and near - term contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Items Domestic Cotton Futures - On July 29, CF01 was 14025, down 40 or - 0.28% from July 28; CF09 was 13925, down 150 or - 1.07% from July 28; CF09 - 01 was - 100, down 110 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On July 29, the price in Xinjiang was 15431, down 42 or - 0.27% from July 28; in Henan it was 15634, down 46 or - 0.29%; in Shandong it was 15562, down 48 or - 0.31%. The Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1506, up 108 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - On July 29, the domestic cotton yarn futures CY was 19995, down 240 or - 1.19% from July 28. The C32S price index of domestic cotton yarn spot was 20720, down 60 or - 0.29% from July 28 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On July 29, the CT price was 68 USD/ pound, unchanged from July 28. The arrival price was 77.60, up 0.1 or 0.13% from July 28. The 1% quota pick - up price was 13715, up 17 or 0.12% from July 28. The sliding - duty pick - up price was 14425, up 5 or 0.03% from July 28 [3]. Spread Data - On July 29, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5970, down 200 from July 28; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 710, down 12 from July 28; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1847, down 65 from July 28 [3].