Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is influenced by factors such as the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships in different metal industries. Some metals may see price increases due to supply shortages and low inventory levels, while others are limited by weak consumption or over - supply expectations [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: LME copper rose 1.74% to $9,896/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,790 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 400 to 93,075 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 24,000 tons. - **Market Outlook**: Loose US fiscal and monetary policies boost risk appetite. Tight raw material market and low inventory may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price may fluctuate upwards. Pay attention to import losses for potential futures structure changes. The operating range for SHFE copper is 78,800 - 80,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9,700 - 10,000 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: LME aluminum rose 0.72% to $2,585/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,660 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 10,000 to 661,000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 43,000 tons. - **Market Outlook**: With the rebound of crude oil prices, the non - ferrous metals atmosphere is positive. Low inventory levels and improved demand expectations may push prices up, but the off - season and price increases limit the upside. The operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20,400 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2,540 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Performance**: SHFE lead index rose 0.23% to 17,221 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,046.5/ton. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. - **Market Outlook**: Although the export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, the high concentration of long - positions in the July LME lead contract and the slow strengthening of the Cash - 3S structure support prices. However, weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [5]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.84% to 22,202 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,729.5/ton. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc mines are being converted into zinc ingots, with high expectations of zinc ingot production. Geopolitical disturbances may affect Iranian zinc ore exports, leading to large price fluctuations [7]. Tin - **Price Performance**: On June 26, 2025, SHFE tin rose 1.57% to 267,260 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues. Demand is weak in the off - season. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 35,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [8]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: Nickel prices rebounded with reduced positions. - **Supply - Demand**: Nickel ore prices may decline, nickel iron prices are under pressure, and the supply of intermediate products may improve. - **Market Outlook**: The oversupply of refined nickel remains, and inventory may increase again. Cost support is weakening. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The MMLC index rose 0.83% to 60,477 yuan. - **Supply - Demand**: Production increased by 1.7% to 18,767 tons, and inventory increased by 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons. - **Market Outlook**: High production and inventory put pressure on prices, but the positive commodity atmosphere may lead to price fluctuations. The reference range for the LC2509 contract is 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: The alumina index rose 0.96% to 2,937 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand**: Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the import window is closed. - **Market Outlook**: The over - capacity situation remains. Prices are expected to be anchored by costs and fluctuate weakly. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless - steel contract closed at 12,635 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. - **Supply - Demand**: Social inventory decreased, and steel mills plan to cut production. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, but the over - supply and weak demand situation persists. Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. The tight raw material market and low inventories may support price increases, but weak domestic consumption restricts the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate and rise. Pay attention to import losses for potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The aluminum price may rise due to low inventories and improved risk sentiment, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season effect. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The lead market has a weak downstream consumption. With the increase in primary lead smelting profits and开工率, and the low profit of secondary lead, the lead price is expected to remain weak [5]. - The zinc market is in a process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Although there is a high expectation of zinc ingot production, factors such as smelter production conversion, transportation issues, and geopolitical events lead to large market fluctuations [7]. - The tin market has a short - term supply shortage, but the downstream is in a seasonal off - season and has limited acceptance of high prices. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8]. - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with weakening cost support. It may face a downward trend, and attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian nickel ore prices [10]. - The lithium carbonate price has a slight increase. With limited marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost, and market news disturbances, caution is advised in operation [12]. - The alumina market has an over - capacity situation. The price is expected to be anchored by cost and maintain a weak oscillation. It is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - The stainless steel market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. Afternoon trading was more active due to factors such as production cuts and futures rebounds [16]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.31% to $9664/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78470 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 94675 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 22000 tons [2]. - **Market**: Domestic spot import losses widened; the refined - scrap copper price difference slightly increased; the overall market sentiment was weak [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.93% to $2568/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20270 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16000 hands; futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 46000 tons; domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Market**: The spot market atmosphere was average; overseas LME inventory decreased, and the basis narrowed [4]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.19% to 16958 yuan/ton; LME lead 3S rose $11.5 to $2009.5/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 44200 tons; domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - **Market**: The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined; the primary lead smelting开工率 reached a high level, and the price was expected to be weak [5]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.61% to 21908 yuan/ton; LME zinc 3S rose $36.5 to $2685/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 7500 tons; domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - **Market**: Zinc ore imports were good in May, but zinc ingot imports were lower than expected; the market was affected by production conversion, transportation, and geopolitical events [7]. Tin - **Price**: On June 24, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263800 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [8]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply is short - term tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues; demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the downstream has limited acceptance of high prices [8]. - **Market**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton in the LME market [8]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices may decline; nickel iron prices are under pressure; intermediate product and nickel sulfate prices are falling; refined nickel spot premiums are stable [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The refined nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and inventory may start to accumulate again [10]. - **Market**: The price may face a downward trend, and attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian nickel ore prices [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 0.17% to 59777 yuan; the LC2509 contract rose 2.67% to 60700 yuan [12]. - **Market**: With market news disturbances and limited marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost, caution is advised in operation [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.07% to 2895 yuan/ton; domestic spot prices mostly declined; the import window was closed [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24 to 35100 tons [14]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation remains, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12440 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; spot prices mostly declined [16]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 669 to 113234 tons; social inventory increased by 1.04% to 1157400 tons [16]. - **Market**: The price showed a trend of first decline and then rise, and afternoon trading was more active [16].