收缩不仅限于私营部门，政府雇员的年度工资增长亦出现放缓，受"政府效率部门"成本削减措施影响， 该领域就业人数今年以来持续下降。公共部门就业的持续减少，不仅给整体就业市场带来额外压力，也 直观体现了财政紧缩政策对劳动力供需的直接影响。 经济学家与政策制定者正密切关注下周将发布的11月非农就业报告与消费者价格指数报告。这些数据将 提供更完整的经济图景，特别是在此前政府停摆导致数据发布延迟的背景下。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国劳动力成本年增长率在第三季度放缓至3.5%，创近四年最低水平，进一步表明就业市场降温正有 效缓解通胀压力。 12月10日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，追踪工资和福利变化的就业成本指数在截至9月份的12个 月内上涨了3.5%，环比上涨0.8%，低于经济学家预期的0.9%。数据表明，该走势反映出就业市场动能 减弱，雇主普遍放缓招聘节奏，部分企业已启动裁员。 对于预计将于周三宣布降息的美联储而言，劳动力成本增速下降是抑制通 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. has risen to 3.1%, indicating a risk of continued inflationary pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [3] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year remains at 2.7%, while the month-on-month rate meets expectations at 0.2%, suggesting a slight easing of overall inflationary pressures [3] - The market's expectation for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, which is seen as a short-term positive for gold [3] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently experiencing mixed signals, with no clear upward or downward trend, as various factors are influencing the market [3] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating within a range, with resistance levels identified between 3368-3372 and support levels between 3342-3338 [3] - A trading strategy is suggested to buy on dips around 3343 with a stop loss at 3333 and a target range of 3375-3388 [4]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderation in inflationary pressures, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and reached a year-on-year rate of 3.1%, marking the largest increase since January of this year [2] - Following the CPI data, the market's expectation for a rate cut during the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has risen from 86% to 94% [2] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The CPI data has minimal impact on gold prices, with expectations for the market to remain in a consolidation phase for the remainder of the week [4] - Key price levels for gold are identified: a support level at 3330 and a resistance level at 3360, with potential movements towards 3375 if the upper level is breached [4] - The overall sentiment indicates a weak bearish trend for gold, with a lack of strong upward momentum despite favorable CPI data [4] Group 2: Domestic Gold and Silver Trends - Domestic gold prices, such as the Shanghai Gold (2512 contract), are expected to maintain support levels around 778, with a target of 785 for short-term profits [5] - International silver prices have shown resilience around the 37.5 support level, with a rebound towards 38, and expectations to reach 38.5 in the near term [5] - The Shanghai Silver (2512 contract) is currently in a bullish trend, with expectations to see price levels around 9350/9400, focusing on short-term profit accumulation [5] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with a current closing price around 63, indicating a lack of upward momentum [6] - The market environment for oil is described as weak, with expectations for a potential rebound if favorable news emerges [6] - Domestic fuel oil prices are also fluctuating, with a recommendation to maintain bullish positions while monitoring market changes [6]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a likelihood of 90.7% for a rate cut and only 9.3% for maintaining the current rate [1] - For October, the probabilities indicate a 4.5% chance of maintaining rates, a 48.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and a 46.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut, suggesting strong expectations for continued rate cuts [1] - Recent economic data shows a moderation in inflation and a slowdown in employment growth, which are key factors influencing the market's expectation for a rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - The core personal consumption expenditure price index in the U.S. has decreased to 2.9%, indicating easing inflation pressures and providing room for a shift in monetary policy [2] - The unemployment rate remains low, but the growth rate of new jobs is slowing, and the savings rate has dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since December 2022, suggesting challenges for sustainable economic growth [2] - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to impact the U.S. dollar negatively, leading to a depreciation that could attract more foreign investment into emerging markets [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including inflation, employment, and GDP growth, which will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3255 per ounce, with a significant buying interest emerging after a dip to $3207.30 per ounce, indicating strong investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a slight easing of inflation pressures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.4% to 2.3%, which is below expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar's performance and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold is influenced by three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and India-Pakistan tensions [4] - The easing of tariffs is viewed positively, suggesting that trade resumption with China may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current course and gradually resume rate cuts later this year [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials and the discussions at the NATO informal meeting regarding security priorities and defense investments [4]

Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The market's reaction to daily fluctuations should not dictate long-term investment strategies; successful investors are those who can sustain profitability over time [1] Gold Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a moderation in inflation, impacting market sentiment and reshaping Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [1] - Despite a dovish signal from the CPI data, market reactions were mixed, reflecting both caution and optimism [1] - Following a recent U.S.-China tariff truce, market risk appetite increased, reducing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] - Traders are awaiting the upcoming CPI data, which is crucial for determining the next market direction [1] Technical Analysis - The monthly gold chart indicates a neutral to bullish long-term trend, while the weekly chart shows a bearish shooting star pattern [2] - Short-term trends are bearish, but a breakout above 3348 could signal a potential bottom reversal and the start of a new bullish wave [2] - Key support levels are identified at 3215-3225, with 3200 acting as a critical pivot point [4] Oil Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - International oil prices rebounded but faced a pullback due to the U.S. and major Asian countries agreeing to delay some tariffs, which boosted economic outlook and energy demand [5] - Brent crude oil futures rose by $1.05 (1.6%) to $64.96 per barrel, while WTI crude increased by $0.93 (1.5%) to $61.95 per barrel, marking the highest closing levels since April 28 [5] - The market remains in a range-bound phase, with ongoing uncertainties regarding the sustainability of trade agreements [5] Technical Analysis - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential test of the $50 level anticipated after a series of price fluctuations [6] - Short-term trends indicate a shift towards bearish momentum, with MACD indicators showing strong bearish signals [6] - Recommended trading strategy includes buying on dips around $60 and selling on rebounds near $64.5-$65.0 [6]