Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. has risen to 3.1%, indicating a risk of continued inflationary pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [3] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year remains at 2.7%, while the month-on-month rate meets expectations at 0.2%, suggesting a slight easing of overall inflationary pressures [3] - The market's expectation for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, which is seen as a short-term positive for gold [3] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently experiencing mixed signals, with no clear upward or downward trend, as various factors are influencing the market [3] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating within a range, with resistance levels identified between 3368-3372 and support levels between 3342-3338 [3] - A trading strategy is suggested to buy on dips around 3343 with a stop loss at 3333 and a target range of 3375-3388 [4]

山海：CPI数据影响不大，基本确定黄金是震荡表现！ 美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比涨幅为2.7%，基本符合市场预。这一数据继6月份0.3%的涨幅后显示出通胀压力的缓 和迹象，特别是核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比达3.1%，为今年1月以来的最大涨幅，但整体并未出现大幅上行。通过本次CPI的反应，现在市 场普遍认为，今年9月16日至17日会议上降息的可能性从周一的86%提升至94%。后续市场变化还有待关注。另外，川普对鲍威尔激烈的言 辞，也是市场不确定性因素之一。周二整体黄金还是偏弱的，但是偏弱的延续性不够，延续周一下跌，最低在3331附近，在CPI数据利多的 情况下，多次试探至3360不破，形成了低位震荡，那么，基本可以确定本周黄金难有大作为，预计是震荡表现。白银就比较明显，在回落至 37.5支撑后形成反弹到38，基本思路是维持37.5支撑上走高位震荡，就看能不能上涨至38.5高点。 先下结论，CPI数据对黄金的影响不大，基本确定本周后三个交易日以震荡为主，周三关注3330/3360区间内的波动，突破3360再看3375，突 破3330再看3310。本周前两个交易日黄金有一个特性，周 ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a likelihood of 90.7% for a rate cut and only 9.3% for maintaining the current rate [1] - For October, the probabilities indicate a 4.5% chance of maintaining rates, a 48.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and a 46.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut, suggesting strong expectations for continued rate cuts [1] - Recent economic data shows a moderation in inflation and a slowdown in employment growth, which are key factors influencing the market's expectation for a rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - The core personal consumption expenditure price index in the U.S. has decreased to 2.9%, indicating easing inflation pressures and providing room for a shift in monetary policy [2] - The unemployment rate remains low, but the growth rate of new jobs is slowing, and the savings rate has dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since December 2022, suggesting challenges for sustainable economic growth [2] - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to impact the U.S. dollar negatively, leading to a depreciation that could attract more foreign investment into emerging markets [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including inflation, employment, and GDP growth, which will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3255 per ounce, with a significant buying interest emerging after a dip to $3207.30 per ounce, indicating strong investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a slight easing of inflation pressures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.4% to 2.3%, which is below expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar's performance and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold is influenced by three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and India-Pakistan tensions [4] - The easing of tariffs is viewed positively, suggesting that trade resumption with China may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current course and gradually resume rate cuts later this year [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials and the discussions at the NATO informal meeting regarding security priorities and defense investments [4]

黄金目前下方短期先关注3215-3225两支撑的企稳，以3200作为风水岭拐点，守住它继续维持底部震荡运行或逐步反弹；一旦突破站上3270，则反弹会加 强，去试探3300关口；再突破3300站稳，则下调结束，回归趋势拉升； 那么只要中途3270-3300依然压制不上，那么还会反复冲高回落而试探底部支撑；若 意外失守3200，那么会指向3160-3150，也需要先做好心理准备，希望不会发生；黄金4小时图来看：此时短期5日有望金叉于10日，则3240之上就会成为一 定支撑表现，关键强支撑还是年均线上移3200一线；阻力一个是3290前面大阴高点，也是分割压力，强压是中轨3293，或靠近3300关口；留意支撑和阻力之 间的运行得失。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注3280-3290一线阻力，下方短期重点关注 3225-3215一线支撑。 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的 ...