Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the delivery of Treasury bond futures, specifically analyzing the historical delivery situation and the potential delivery trends of the 2509 contract, while also introducing the concept, process, benefits of Treasury bond futures delivery, and the advantages of Guotai Junan Futures in delivery [2][6][22] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The historical delivery volume and delivery rate of Treasury bond futures have been rising, and the 2509 contract has a high position - holding volume and significant arbitrage opportunities, indicating that the delivery volume may remain high. However, the new VAT policy may change the delivery logic and expectations, potentially leading to a lower - than - expected delivery volume [2] - The final delivery situation of the 2509 contract needs to be comprehensively considered from aspects such as IRR level, cash - bond liquidity, short - and long - term interest rate strength, futures position - holding volume, combined with the delivery willingness of the short side and the bond - taking willingness of the long side [20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Historical Delivery Situation and 2509 Delivery Highlights 3.1.1 Historical Delivery Situation - From 2303 to 2506, the average position - holding volume of four Treasury bond futures contracts (except TS) showed an upward trend. The delivery volume and delivery rate of some contracts, such as T2506 and TF2506, reached historical highs. The delivery time characteristics of different varieties in the 2506 contract vary [6][8] - In terms of positive arbitrage opportunities, TS2506 and TF2506 had relatively more positive arbitrage opportunities, leading to stronger short - side delivery willingness. T2506 and TL2506 had fewer positive arbitrage opportunities but still had some short - side delivery due to such opportunities [10] - From the long - side perspective, in the two months before the 2506 delivery, the short - end was strong and the long - end was weak. The long - side's bond - taking attitude varied depending on the liquidity of the delivery bonds [15] 3.1.2 2509 Contract Delivery Situation Analysis - The average IRR levels of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 in the past month are all higher than the R007 average level, indicating positive arbitrage space. The position - holding volume of the 2509 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Without considering the VAT impact, the delivery volume and delivery rate of the 2509 contract may reach historical highs [19] - After the VAT policy change, new bonds will be subject to VAT, making old bonds more popular. The short - side's delivery willingness may decrease, while the long - side's bond - taking willingness may increase, which may drive the futures price up and the intraday IRR to rise [19] 3.1.3 Conclusion - The final delivery situation of the 2509 contract needs comprehensive consideration. Based on the previous contracts, the delivery volume and delivery rate of the 2509 contract may remain high, but the VAT policy may cause the delivery volume and rate to be lower than expected [20] 3.2 Concept and Basic Process of Treasury Bond Futures Delivery - Treasury bond futures delivery is the process of fulfilling the contract through the transfer of physical bonds at the contract's expiration. It uses a physical delivery system to ensure the convergence of futures and spot prices. The main participants include the short side, the long side, the exchange, and the settlement institution [22] - The delivery months are March, June, September, and December, and the last trading day is the second Friday of the contract month. The delivery includes rolling delivery and concentrated delivery, and there are two delivery modes: general mode and DVP mode [22][23] 3.3 Benefits of Treasury Bond Futures Delivery - For the short side: It can lock in the selling price for positive arbitrage investors, eliminate basis risk for institutions hedging bond portfolios, provide a selling channel for illiquid bonds, and offer time and bond - type selection rights [24] - For the long side: It can ensure the receipt of qualified bonds, obtain cost - effective CTD bonds, gain interest - rate spread benefits in a loose - money environment, and help obtain old bonds not subject to VAT [25] 3.4 Advantages of Guotai Junan Futures in Delivery - Guotai Junan was the first member to handle Treasury bond delivery for clients after the listing of Treasury bond futures. In the first half of 2025, its Treasury bond delivery volume accounted for 23.12% of the market, ranking among the top in the industry [26] - It provides a professional institutional service platform with full - process electronic CFFEX business, no need for stamping, and real - time progress tracking [26] - It offers total - to - total services, including pre - confirming bond account status, sending delivery calendar reminders, and confirming bond settlement status [26] - It has in - depth experience in serving clients' Treasury bond collateral business and has won relevant honorary awards from China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. for five consecutive years [27]

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility / Polysilicon: Volatility [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices continue to decline, with some small factories planning further production cuts, but partial resumption in Sichuan and potential resumption of large Xinjiang factories. Demand remains weak, and future spot prices are not optimistic [1][9]. - Polysilicon prices first rose and then fell. After the production - cut meeting, no clear plan was given. The market is trading based on reality. The company has lowered the production schedule for May and June, and polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory [1][11]. - For investment, it is not recommended to go long on industrial silicon on the left - hand side, and consider short - selling on rebounds. For polysilicon, an arbitrage strategy is recommended, focusing on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8145 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blowing 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon also declined. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 980 yuan/ton to 36850 yuan/ton, and the N - type re - feeding material transaction price also dropped [7][8]. 2. Industrial Silicon May Partially Resume Production, Polysilicon Focus on Positive Spread Opportunities Industrial Silicon - This week, industrial silicon futures rebounded and then fell. Zhou production was 6.92 tons, a decrease of 3.94%. Social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, and sample factory inventory decreased by 1.73 tons. Demand is weak, and future prices are not optimistic [9]. Organic Silicon - This week, organic silicon prices declined slightly. The overall enterprise start - up rate was about 58.95%, an increase of 3.17pct. Zhou production was 3.90 tons, an increase of 3.17%, and inventory was 4.69 tons, a decrease of 5.06%. Short - term prices may rebound slightly, but the long - term supply surplus problem remains [9][10]. Polysilicon - This week, polysilicon futures prices first rose and then fell. The company has lowered the production schedule for May to about 9.3 tons and for June to 9 tons. Polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory in May and June. The average spot selling price has fallen below the cash cost line, and the production - cut action is still being negotiated [11]. Silicon Wafers - This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of May 15th, factory inventory was 19.44GW, an increase of 1.31GW. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. Battery Cells - This week, battery cell prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was 58 - 59GW. Inventory has accumulated, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [13]. Components - This week, component prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was about 54GW, and the expected production schedule for June is 50GW. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the low - price range [13]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Industrial silicon: Do not recommend going long on the left - hand side, consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Recommend an arbitrage strategy, focus on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508, and continue to pay attention to supply - side changes and spot conditions [2][15]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Ruoqiang County's second - phase 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon compliance capacity project: The industrial silicon indicator of Fuhai County will be transferred to Xinjiang TBEA Loulan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. for project construction [16]. - Hongyuan Green Energy plans to transfer 27.0737% of the equity of Inner Mongolia Xinyuan for 1.245 billion yuan to optimize resource allocation and focus on core business [16]. - Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project is under publicity, with an investment of 1.495 billion yuan [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides various data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, production, inventory, and profit data [6]

撰写品种：尿素 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 尿素周度报告 一、行情回顾 本周尿素期货市场行情呈现下行走势，主力合约 UR2509 周内累计跌幅达 0.9%， 最终收报 1757 元/吨。市场交投活跃度较高，总成交量录得 132.1 万手，其中主力合 约成交量占比高达 89.09%，达 117.7 万手。 从技术面分析显示，期货价格目前维持在 20 日均线附近震荡整理，MACD 指标显 示市场维持震荡格局。基差方面，UR2509 合约基差稳定，山东基差维持在 55 元/ 吨，河南基差为 49 元/吨。 供应端数据显示，本周国内尿素开工率为 83.61%，较上周下降 2.13 个百分点， 部分装置因短暂停产导致开工率回落。预计下周随着装置逐步恢复，开工率将明显回 升。企业盈利状况方面，受需求推迟及短期空档期影响，现货价格震荡趋弱，企业利 润水平有所下滑。后期随着开工率逐步回升至高位，预计旺季背景下企业利润将得到 一定修复。 库存数据显示，企业库存量为 106.5 万吨，较上周增加 15.88 万吨。企业预收订 单天数为 5.12 天，较上周 ...