1月10日，在第三十届(2026年度)中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学 院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分 主题作演讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如何完善企业股本补充机制；如何理解健全预算管理机制与健全资本市场治理体系的关系；如何做好资本市场改革工作； 如何优化金融结构并提高直接融资比重等话题分享了各自观点。 黄奇帆：建议由银行、社保、保险、外汇资金参与设立股权引导基金 黄奇帆在会上表示，多渠道提高直接融资比重，要"两个轮子"一起转，既要发展好股票市场，也要发展好企业股权投资基金、完善企业股本市场化补充机 制。他建议，可考虑设立一个由银行资金、社保基金、商业保险资金以及外汇资金等参与的股权引导基金。 黄奇帆表示，在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若按照3%的比例，可有约1万亿元资本金作 为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 在社保资金方面，若按照30%的比例用于股权投资，我国社保基金预计可形成约 ...

黄奇帆：建议由银行、社保、保险、外汇资金参与设立股权引导基金 1月10日，在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常 务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研 究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分主题作演 讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如何完善企业股本补充机制；如何理解健全预算管理机制与健全资本市场治理 体系的关系；如何做好资本市场改革工作；如何优化金融结构并提高直接融资比重等话题分享了各自观点。 黄奇帆在会上表示，多渠道提高直接融资比重，要"两个轮子"一起转，既要发展好股票市场，也要发展好企业 股权投资基金、完善企业股本市场化补充机制。他建议，可考虑设立一个由银行资金、社保基金、商业保险资 金以及外汇资金等参与的股权引导基金。 黄奇帆表示，在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若 按照3%的比例，可有约1万亿元资本金作为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 在社保资金方面，若按照30%的比例用于股权投资，我国社保基金预计可形 ...

在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若按照3%的比例，可 有约1万亿元资本金作为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 在社保资金方面，若按照30%的比例用于股权投资，我国社保基金预计可形成约2万亿元作为股权投资基金母基金的来 源。 在保险资金方面，根据商业保险公司每年资产收入，按照30%用作股权投资的比例，预计可形成约3万亿至4万亿元作 为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 黄奇帆表示，银行、社保、保险、外汇四个渠道的资金汇总起来，并引导社会资本进一步跟投后，预计可形成四五十 万亿元规模的股权投资基金，用以支持补充企业股本。在具体运作上，可参照新加坡模式，由财政部牵头，并组建多 个类似淡马锡的投资集团。 高培勇：健全预期管理机制将是健全资本市场治理体系的重头戏 1月10日，在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主 席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一 级教授吴晓求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分主题作演讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如 ...

丁志杰指出，从近年全国社保基金理事会地方养老基金投资收益率来看，养老金在进入资本市场的情况 下，年化收益率能够超过5%，明显高于保底收益。截至2024年末，我国基本养老金总规模达8.7万亿 元。"若这部分资金很大一部分进入资本市场，对于推动资本市场发展有积极意义。"丁志杰说。 此外，丁志杰还指出，我国医保结余、住房公积金缴存余额，都是以银行存款的形式存在，如果部分资 金能进入资本市场，对于提高居民投资储蓄收益率，发展资本市场都有积极意义。 1月10日，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰在第三十届(2026年度)中国资本市场论坛圆桌讨论时表 示，中国金融结构优化还有很大空间，金融结构变革的机遇远远大于挑战。我国在深化金融体制改革上 已取得长足进步，但中国金融体系效率仍有提高空间。他认为，将银行体系沉淀的部分家庭部门长期储 蓄，转化为耐心资本、长期资本，对于优化金融结构，提高直接融资的比重有积极意义。 丁志杰指出，大力发展资本市场是中国金融结构优化的一个方向，包括积极发展股权、债券等直接融 资。近年来，我国积极在培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本。而部分耐心资本、长期资本仍沉淀在银行体 系。 ...

（原标题：连平：中国金融结构正在发生历史性转折，直接融资比重持续提升） 人民财讯1月10日电，1月10日，在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平表示，中国金融结构正在发生历史性转折。近三年来，尤其是2025年 之后，金融领域一大值得关注的新变化是，间接金融增量占比持续下降，直接金融增量占比稳步上升。 连平指出，从存量来看，间接融资仍占据主导地位，占比超65%，但近年来直接融资增长提速，占比逐 步上升，2025年11月末的数据较2019年11月末上升了4.7个百分点，整体增长速度快于间接融资。 "未来中国金融结构将进一步优化。近年内，中国金融结构优化将进入关键阶段，直接融资比重有望超 过一半，形成直接融资规模超过间接融资的总体趋势。"连平表示。 连平分析称，直接融资需求保持较快增长，企业直接融资整体表现良好，这得益于多重积极因素推动： 实体经济中，直接融资需求绕开银行信贷相关环节，需求更为实在；同时，直接融资资金配置更具市场 化特征，与新动能的适配性较强，这些均为直接金融发展注入动力。此外，多层次资本市场建设成效显 著，科创板、创业板、北交所及债券市场科 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that capital market reform is a crucial element in China's economic transformation by 2025, impacting both investor wealth expectations and the financing efficiency of innovative enterprises [2] - The discussion highlights the need for fundamental institutional innovation to rebuild market confidence and address deep-seated contradictions within the capital market ecosystem [2] Group 2 - The issue of "one-share dominance" and the controversy surrounding major shareholder reductions are significant, with 4,000 out of 5,400 listed companies being privately controlled, and 126 private enterprises having original shareholders holding over 90% [3][4] - There is a notable concern regarding the potential market pressure from major shareholder reductions, with 1,979 companies disclosing reduction plans amounting to 400 billion, which could lead to a total potential sell-off of 21.5 trillion if 20% of the main board's market value is reduced [4] - The discussion also touches on the IPO system design, noting that high-tech companies in China often skip multiple financing rounds, leading to concentrated shareholding, unlike the gradual dilution seen in U.S. companies [4][6] Group 3 - The current financing structure shows a significant imbalance, with capital market financing at approximately 1 trillion compared to 20 trillion in bank loans, indicating a need for reform to enhance direct financing [8] - The expected total dividend payout in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is projected to exceed 2 trillion by 2025, signaling a gradual return of the market to its investment function [8] - Institutional reforms are proposed, including legal amendments to impose severe penalties for fraudulent activities, the development of institutional investors, and improvements in civil compensation mechanisms [8][9] Group 4 - The role of institutional investors is under scrutiny, with calls for aligning management fees with performance rather than fixed fees, which are seen as unreasonable [9] - The introduction of new policies to encourage insurance funds to enter the market is viewed as a critical step in improving the funding structure [9] - The overall restructuring of China's capital market ecosystem is deemed necessary to address issues from the asset side, funding side, and institutional side [9]

Core Insights - The central bank's data indicates that as of the end of August, the total social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans grew by 8.8%, 8.8%, and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a high overall growth rate in financial volume [1][9][10] - The narrowing "scissor difference" between narrow money (M1) and M2 suggests a shift towards more demand deposits, which supports consumption and investment activities [1][8] Financial Data Summary - As of the end of August, M2 balance grew by 8.8%, while M1 balance increased by 6% [2] - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 1.346 trillion yuan [2] - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first eight months was 2.656 trillion yuan, which is 466 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2] Credit Growth and Economic Support - As of the end of August, RMB loan balance reached 269.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, supported by the recovery in industry, resilient exports, and seasonal consumption [4][5] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points [2][9] Structural Optimization in Finance - The special refinancing bonds issued for replacing local hidden debts amounted to 1.9 trillion yuan by the end of August, indicating a higher loan growth rate when adjusted for these factors [5] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.6% [9] Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts expect that macro policies will maintain continuity and stability, with moderately loose monetary policy continuing to support the real economy, particularly in optimizing financial structure [10] - Structural monetary policy tools are anticipated to play a significant role in guiding financial institutions to support key sectors effectively [10]

Group 1 - The core concept of resident financial personality is the stable tendency of individuals as micro-financial entities in their financial behaviors, influenced by factors such as age, income level, and education [1] - Optimizing resident financial personality is crucial for enhancing adaptability in financial activities and promoting the internal formation of patient capital, which is characterized by a long-term investment return focus and resilience to investment risks and short-term market fluctuations [1] - Patient capital is essential for fostering technological innovation, supporting strategic emerging industries, upgrading traditional industries, and improving infrastructure investment, thereby enhancing national competitiveness [2][3][4] Group 2 - Patient capital plays a significant role in improving financial structure and competitiveness by providing long-term investment that traditional banking systems may not adequately support [5] - Investment in education and healthcare by patient capital can enhance human capital competitiveness, which is foundational for national competitiveness [6][7] - The support of patient capital in national defense technology research and equipment upgrades is vital for strengthening national defense competitiveness [8] Group 3 - Optimizing resident financial personality aids investors in pursuing long-term value returns and reduces the influence of market noise on investment decisions [9] - It also helps investors endure the risks associated with innovation and make independent investment decisions based on their financial knowledge and experience [10] - Furthermore, an optimized financial personality allows investors to better tolerate short-term market value fluctuations, fostering a long-term investment mindset [11] Group 4 - There are challenges in optimizing resident financial personality, including mismatches in time preference and risk perception among investors [12][13] - Deficiencies in financial literacy among investors can lead to poor investment decisions and increased susceptibility to market volatility [14] - Existing incentive distortions in financial markets can reinforce short-term profit-seeking behaviors, complicating the cultivation of patient capital [15] Group 5 - Strategies for optimizing resident financial personality include enhancing financial literacy through education and community training programs [15][16] - Financial institutions should innovate financial products and services tailored to different age groups and educational backgrounds to better serve clients [16] - Technological advancements can facilitate the optimization of financial personality by providing tools for risk assessment and investment management [17][18] - Institutional adjustments, such as improving the design of financial support systems and extending performance evaluation periods for fund managers, can further promote the growth of patient capital [19]