Banco BBVA Argentina (BBAR) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 21, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBelén Fourcade - Investor Relations ManagerBrian Flores - VP - Equity ResearchCarmen Arroyo - CFOPedro Leduc - Brazil Financials - Equity ResearchDiego Cesarini - Head - IRConference Call ParticipantsNone - AnalystMartín Ignacio Argento - Senior Equity AnalystOperatorGood morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA's Argentina Second Quarter twenty twenty five Results Conference Call. Today with us are Mr. Diego Ces ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy, specifically focusing on the credit market and social financing trends in July 2023. Key Points and Arguments Credit Market Performance - In July 2023, new RMB loans contracted by 50 billion, marking the first decline since July 2005, and fell short of market expectations of 285 billion [1] - Total new loans were 3.1 trillion less than the previous year, with household loans decreasing by 489 billion and corporate loans increasing by 600 billion [1] - The contraction in household medium to long-term loans was 110 billion, significantly lower than the previous year's figures [1] - The overall credit demand is weak, attributed to a sluggish real estate market and low corporate credit demand [2] Social Financing Trends - New social financing in July was 1.157 trillion, down 386 billion year-on-year, and below the market expectation of 1.5 trillion [3] - The key factor for the underperformance was the weak RMB loans, which contracted by 426 billion [3] - Government bonds issuance remained strong at 1.2 trillion, up 556 billion year-on-year, contributing positively to social financing growth [3] Future Outlook - Credit growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year due to accelerated government bond issuance, which has already reached 57% of the annual target for national bonds and 67% for local government bonds [4] - The government plans to provide interest subsidies for consumer loans, which may have a mild impact on credit and consumption demand due to underlying issues with income and consumer confidence [4] - The forecast for social financing growth is expected to decline from 9% in July to approximately 8.6% by the end of 2025 [4] Additional Insights - A significant drop in household deposits by 1.1 trillion year-on-year indicates a potential shift of funds from bank deposits to financial markets [1] - The ongoing debt replacement for local government financing platforms may also be suppressing corporate loan demand [2] - The overall credit impulse remains stable at 3.2% of GDP, indicating a steady but cautious economic environment [3] Important but Overlooked Content - The contraction in loans is not only a seasonal trend but also reflects deeper economic issues, including the impact of falling real estate prices on consumer wealth and confidence [4] - The government’s fiscal policy adjustments, including potential increases in the fiscal deficit, may provide some support for credit growth in the latter part of the year [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Insights - Social financing continues to grow, but credit growth requires policy support. In July, the social financing growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, while the growth rates of financial institution loans and medium to long-term loans decreased to 6.9% and 6.5% respectively, indicating a weakening in credit growth after a brief stabilization [5][12] - The government bond financing has cumulatively increased by 4.87 trillion yuan year-on-year, providing strong support for social financing, although the credit growth trend remains a concern [12][17] - There is a notable decline in both household and corporate loans, with household loans showing a negative growth of 489.3 billion yuan in July, primarily due to sluggish real estate transactions [6][15] Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit Growth - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in July, with government bond financing contributing significantly, up by 555.9 billion yuan year-on-year [12][17] - The total amount of loans in July showed a negative growth of 426.3 billion yuan, indicating a significant drop compared to the previous year [12][15] Loan Structure - In July, corporate loans added only 60 billion yuan, a decrease of 70 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate bill financing surged by 871.1 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in financing structure [6][15] - The overall loan structure is weakening, with both short-term and medium to long-term loans for enterprises showing negative growth [6][15] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates improved, with M1 growing by 5.6% and M2 by 8.8% in July, attributed to increased non-bank deposits and changes in household financial behavior [27][30] - Total new deposits in July amounted to 500 billion yuan, with significant increases in fiscal deposits, while both corporate and household deposits showed negative growth [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on "high dividend + regional growth" strategies for bank stocks, highlighting state-owned banks and several regional banks with potential for dividend growth [9][10][33] - The expectation is that with continued policy support, credit growth may stabilize, and banks' asset quality will further solidify [9][33]

事实上，贷款增长既与中长期经济结构转型升级等背景有关，（下转A02版） （上接A01版）也受到直接融资发展、企业融资渠道日益多元化的影响，还叠加地方政府债务置换、中 小银行化险、专项债使用效率提高等因素。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 中国人民银行8月13日发布的数据显示，7月末，社会融资规模、广义货币（M2）增速均保持在较高水 平，为实体经济提供了适宜的货币金融环境，体现出适度宽松的货币政策取向。 专家表示，上半年，人民银行出台了一揽子货币政策，有力地支持了实体经济回升向好。各项政策效果 将进一步显现并持续释放，对实现全年经济社会发展目标任务提供有力支撑。 信贷保持合理增长 数据显示，前7个月人民币贷款增加12.87万亿元；7月末人民币贷款余额268.51万亿元，同比增长 6.9%。 专家表示，6月和7月信贷数据波动，一方面与金融机构上半年报表披露和实体企业结算窗口期有较大关 系；另一方面则是因为今年地方政府债务置换对贷款数据影响较大，还原相关影响后，7月人民币贷款 增速仍明显高于GDP增速。 具体而言，6月恰逢金融机构半年报披露，部分机构会出现短期调整信贷投放节奏、拉高6月数据的情 况，这种"冲时点"的做法在以往年 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held a press conference focusing on financial statistics and policy implementation in Beijing for the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Statistics - Total credit in Beijing showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in RMB loans reaching 12.08 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 7.3%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than at the end of Q1, marking the highest growth in nearly 10 months [1] - Corporate loans increased by 9.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 462.78 billion yuan in corporate loans during the first half, accounting for 84.4% of all new loans, which is a 53.1 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Household loans grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with personal housing loans increasing by 7.5%, showing a monthly upward trend since the beginning of the year [1]

Group 1: Competitive Advantage - The company adopts a differentiated business strategy to adapt to changes in the operating environment, focusing on high-quality development through four main approaches: deepening the main business line, strengthening professional operations, accelerating technological transformation, and ensuring risk management [2]. Group 2: Capital Supplementation - The bank has continuously optimized its business structure and saved capital usage, achieving a capital adequacy ratio of 15.32% by the end of 2024, which is considered a good level within the industry [2]. Group 3: Loan Growth - The company has focused on key sectors such as private small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, import-export businesses, and consumer services, enhancing financial services to support the real economy and maintain steady loan growth [2]. Group 4: Investor Communication - During the investor relations activity, the company ensured thorough communication with investors and adhered to disclosure regulations, with no significant undisclosed information leaks reported [2].

Group 1: Asset Quality Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a good asset quality level within the industry, despite new challenges posed by economic cycles and external conditions [2] - The bank will focus on key areas and adhere to a risk bottom line, implementing prudent and efficient credit policies [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company adopts a differentiated business strategy to accumulate comparative advantages and promote high-quality development [2] - Key strategies include deepening operational focus, strengthening core advantages, accelerating technological transformation, and ensuring stable operations [2] Group 3: Loan Growth Prospects - The company has focused on supporting private small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, import-export businesses, and consumer sectors, leading to steady loan growth [2] - Future loan growth is expected to continue as policies promoting domestic demand and consumption are implemented [2] Group 4: Compliance and Disclosure - During the investor relations activity, the company ensured full communication with investors, adhering to relevant regulations without disclosing any undisclosed significant information [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the moderate growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the first half of the year has created space for stronger credit growth in Vietnam [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the CPI growth has been described as moderate, indicating a stable economic environment [1] - It suggests that the current economic conditions are favorable for increasing credit, which could stimulate further economic activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of credit growth in China, highlighting that while there is a slowdown in year-on-year growth, it does not indicate a decrease in credit support for the real economy. Instead, it suggests that measures like local government debt replacement are beneficial for economic growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from April but a decrease of 330 billion compared to the same month last year [3]. - The replacement of local government hidden debts is a significant factor affecting credit growth, allowing local governments to alleviate financial burdens [3]. Economic Indicators - Weakening effective demand is reflected in recent economic data, with manufacturing PMI for April and May at 49.0% and 49.5%, respectively, lower than the first quarter average of 49.9% [3]. - The PPI year-on-year growth rates for April and May were -2.7% and -3.3%, respectively, also lower than the first quarter average of -2.3% [3]. Historical Context and Policy Response - Historical experiences show that proactive policy responses can maintain or even strengthen credit support for the economy despite external shocks, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic years [4]. - In 2022, a new policy tool was introduced to address capital shortages for major projects, leading to a significant increase in effective credit demand [4]. New Financial Tools - A new type of policy financial tool was proposed in a recent political meeting, which could theoretically leverage 20 trillion in credit demand for every 500 billion issued [5]. - This tool is seen as a key measure to promote credit issuance, suggesting a positive outlook for future credit growth [5]. Credit Growth Perspective - The article questions whether more credit growth is always beneficial, noting that excessive competition among financial institutions can lead to unsustainable practices [5]. - A moderate decline in credit growth is considered normal amid economic restructuring and increased direct financing [6]. Target Growth Rates - Considering various factors, a credit growth rate of around 7.5% for major state-owned banks is viewed as satisfactory in light of the GDP and CPI growth targets of approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that credit growth has accelerated slightly compared to previous expectations [1] Group 1: Credit Growth - Credit growth is showing a slight acceleration, which may impact economic conditions and monetary policy [1] - The ECB's assessment suggests that the financial environment is evolving, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates or other monetary measures [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in credit growth could signal improved economic activity, influencing consumer spending and investment [1] - This development may also affect the ECB's future policy decisions, as they monitor the balance between inflation and economic growth [1]