2026 年债市展望：度尽劫波，守候周期 20260105 摘要 2026 年或延续出清阶段，企业部门杠杆率维持高位，政府部门加杠杆， 居民部门负债压力缓解，整体风险偏好有望随新质生产力显现而回升， 并促进资产价值重估。 预计 2026 年通胀温和修复，但总体物价难有趋势性大幅改善。猪周期 或在 2026 年见底回升，能源价格供强需弱格局难改，核心通胀虽有修 复但难以支撑整体通胀大幅上升。 合理的政策组合应为财政和货币双宽松。预计 2026 年广义赤字率维持 在 10%左右水平，货币政策通过小幅降息维持名义利率低位，并运用降 准、MLF 等工具投放流动性。 名义 GDP 增速或接近归零，经济增长更多依赖实际产出提升。需通过财 政货币双宽松稳定总需求，确保资产价格上涨不伴随名义利率明显回升。 2025 年中长期流动性投放积极，预计 2026 年维持宽松。货币政策操 作框架更注重短期利率和资金利率调控，资金面和流动性运行将相对平 稳，呈现"资金的新常态"。 预计 2026 年居民中长期信贷延续回落趋势，信贷增量主要依赖政策推 动的投资需求回升，如新型政策性金融工具扩量。 在陡峭收益率曲线下推荐期限策略，大幅上行概 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the domestic economy is steadily improving, while global economic growth remains insufficient, with various risks primarily stemming from external disturbances [2] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is on a steady path, with sufficient support to achieve annual targets, and the effectiveness of demand policies is becoming evident [2] - The global economic outlook is cautious, with insufficient growth momentum, diverse inflation trends, and concerns over fiscal sustainability [2] Inflation - Price levels have shown improvement, maintaining a positive tone compared to previous reports, with a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [2] Exchange Rate - The report emphasizes the need to deepen market-oriented reforms of the exchange rate, highlighting its role as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic balance and international payments [3] Monetary Policy - The report maintains a stance of moderately loose monetary policy while introducing a more comprehensive macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the importance of smooth monetary policy transmission [4] Credit - The report stresses the need to guide banks in consolidating credit support and maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, aligning credit growth with economic and price targets [5] Liquidity - The report continues to advocate for ample liquidity in the market, aiming to stabilize the funding environment and improve the overall monetary financial environment [6] Risk Management - The report expands the scope of macro-prudential support, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, and emphasizes the need for a broader coverage of macro-prudential policies [7]

Group 1: Competitive Advantage and Business Strategy - The company adopts a differentiated business strategy to adapt to changes in the operating environment, focusing on high-quality development through four main approaches: deepening operational lines, strengthening core advantages, accelerating technological transformation, and ensuring risk management [2]. - The company aims to maintain a good asset quality level despite economic fluctuations and challenges, leveraging its unique "Four Transformations and Five Supports" service system to assist key economic sectors [2]. Group 2: Loan Growth and Economic Support - The company has focused on supporting private small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, import-export businesses, and consumer sectors, leading to a steady increase in loan volume [2]. - Future loan growth is expected to be sustained as policies promoting domestic demand and consumption continue to be implemented, enhancing financial service coverage to meet the needs of the real economy [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Credit Policies - The company emphasizes strict credit approval processes and prudent lending policies to manage credit risk effectively, ensuring stable operations [2]. - Continuous improvement of the credit risk management process is prioritized, utilizing financial technology to enhance risk monitoring systems [2].

Core Insights - Brazil's central bank reported a 1.1% month-on-month increase in national credit volume for September, reaching 6.844 trillion reais [1] - The growth in credit was driven by a rebound in corporate and personal loan issuance, with free resource loans rising by 8.1% and directed resource loans increasing by 8.2% [1] - The non-performing loan rate for free resource loans improved slightly from 5.4% in August to 5.3% in September, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1] - Average interest rates for free credit loans decreased to 45.5%, down 0.4 percentage points, while directed credit rates fell to 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1] - The banking spread in free credit business narrowed to 31.9 percentage points, compared to 32.2 percentage points in the previous month [1] - Analysts noted that the credit growth indicates a recovery in corporate financing activities and a gradual restoration of consumer credit demand, although high interest rates raise questions about the sustainability of loan expansion [1]

Core Insights - The financial operation in Sichuan province is stable in the first three quarters of 2025, with steady growth in deposits and loans, optimized credit structure, and declining loan rates, providing strong financial support for high-quality economic and social development [1] Group 1: Deposit Growth - As of the end of September, the total balance of deposits in Sichuan reached 14.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, with an increase of 1.14 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, which is 205.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The demand deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 16.0% year-on-year, with growth rates surpassing those of the same period last year and the end of the previous year by 27.3 and 16.3 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 2: Loan Growth - By the end of September, the total balance of loans in Sichuan was 12.80 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, ranking among the top in the country; the loan balance increased by 1.05 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, which is 92.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, reaching 88.6% of the total loan increment expected for 2024 [3][4] - The balance of loans directed towards key areas, such as technology and small micro-enterprises, showed significant growth, with technology loans increasing by 13.4% and small micro-enterprise loans (under 10 million yuan) growing by 21.7% [4] Group 3: Loan Rates - In September, the weighted average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans, inclusive small micro-enterprise loans, and personal housing loans were 3.79%, 3.77%, and 3.14%, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 47, 49, and 19 basis points, reducing the interest burden on residents and enterprises [4] - The stock loan interest rate continued to hit historical lows, dropping to 3.87% in September, a year-on-year decrease of 46 basis points [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China Sichuan Branch will continue to guide financial institutions to focus on serving the real economy, targeting major strategies, key areas, and weak links, and aligning financial resource supply with economic structural adjustments to support the sustained recovery of the provincial economy [4]

Macro Analysis - The core CPI has risen to +1.0% year-on-year due to increases in gold prices and durable goods, but overall CPI remains negative due to the drag from pork prices [2] - CPI is expected to turn positive in Q4 as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates [2] - PPI's year-on-year decline continues to narrow, influenced by the high base effect and the promotion of "anti-involution" [2] Credit Market Insights - In September 2025, new RMB loans increased by 700 billion, marking the second consecutive month of growth [3] - The credit growth indicates a potential upward trend for Q4, suggesting that the market is preparing for increased lending activity [3] Bond Market Overview - The overall CPI showed slight improvement in September, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months [4] - PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a decline in manufacturing prices [4] - The bond market outlook is optimistic due to a relatively loose funding environment, with a target yield for 10Y government bonds set at 1.7% [4] Banking Sector Analysis - In September, the intensity of loan issuance showed a seasonal rebound, with new social financing at 3.53 trillion, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 8.7% [6] - The M1 money supply continues to rebound, while M2 shows a slight decline due to a high base effect, indicating an increase in monetary activity [6] Company Research: Xinhan New Materials - Xinhan New Materials focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of aromatic ketone products, with projected net profits of 79 million, 85 million, and 100 million RMB for 2025-2027 [7] - The company is expected to experience high growth due to new capacity coming online, leading to an "overweight" rating [7] Company Research: Xiaocaiyuan - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading brand in the affordable dining sector, aligning with consumer trends for quality and price [8] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 750 million, 922 million, and 1.132 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.78, and 0.96 RMB [8] - The company is rated "overweight" due to its supply chain advantages and potential for margin improvement [8]

Macro Analysis - The core CPI has risen to +1.0% year-on-year, driven by increases in gold prices and durable goods, but overall CPI remains negative due to the drag from pork prices [4] - CPI is expected to turn positive in Q4 as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates [4] - PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed, influenced by the high base effect from last year and the promotion of "anti-involution" [4] - The upward slope of PPI may slow in Q4 due to weakened support from last year's base, increased oil price declines, and obstacles in price transmission from upstream to downstream [4] Credit Market Insights - In September 2025, new RMB loan data indicates a significant increase, with a month-on-month rise from 640 billion to 700 billion yuan, reflecting a robust credit growth trend [5] - The current credit growth shows potential for further acceleration in Q4, indicating a positive outlook for the credit market [5] Company Insights - Zhongyan Co., Ltd. (688716.SH) is a leading player in the domestic PEEK industry, with an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons of PEEK and an additional 5,000 tons of deep-processing products expected to be operational by September 2026 [6] - The company has developed a comprehensive product system with 52 specifications across two major categories and three major brands [6] - Newhan New Materials (301076.SZ) specializes in aromatic ketone products, with a production capacity of 9,800 tons per year by the end of 2024, showcasing significant technological and supply chain advantages [6] - Xiaocaiyuan (0999.HK) is a leading brand in the mass catering sector, focusing on high cost-performance, with plans to accelerate store openings in H2 2025 and potential for improved profit margins through supply chain efficiencies [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The new RMB loan data in September 2025 reflects both the "form" and "trend" of current credit growth. The credit growth in September was "holding back", and the credit growth in the fourth quarter is "accumulating strength". The overall situation of credit and the economy is improving [1][2][3]. - The improvement in the "trend" is not only reflected in credit data but also in other monetary - financial and economic operation data, indicating that the economic situation is gradually getting better [3]. 3) Summary of Related Sections Credit's "Form" and "Trend" - **Form**: In September 2025, it was the second consecutive month of month - on - month increase in credit, and the increase widened from 64 billion yuan in the previous month to 70 billion yuan. The year - on - year decrease also narrowed compared to the previous month [1]. - **Trend**: - **September's credit "holding back"**: The rise in the 3M national - share transfer discount rate at the end of September shows that if financial institutions had not restricted credit, the credit data would have been higher [2]. - **Fourth - quarter credit "accumulating strength"**: The 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments started to be put into use at the end of September, which will boost credit demand. The impact of implicit debt replacement on credit growth in the fourth quarter of this year is weaker than that in the same period last year, so the year - on - year credit growth in the fourth quarter is likely to improve compared to the third quarter [3]. Other Data Indicating the Positive "Trend" - **Monetary - financial data**: In late September, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate rising for five consecutive months [3]. - **Economic operation data**: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, rising for the second consecutive month; the PPI year - on - year growth rate was - 2.3%, also rising for the second consecutive month and increasing by 1.3 percentage points from the annual low in July [3]. Stock Market and Economic Outlook Since May, the Shanghai Composite Index has been rising, reaching 3912.21 points at the close on the day of the report. The economic situation is improving, and investors' expectations and confidence have changed significantly [4].

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) reported a continued acceleration in bank credit growth in the Eurozone for August, reaching a multi-year high due to declining interest rates promoting credit flow [1] Group 1: Credit Growth - Corporate credit growth increased from 2.8% in July to 3.0% in August, marking the highest level since mid-2023 [1] - Household loan growth rose from 2.4% to 2.5%, the highest level since April 2023 [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Impact - The ECB lowered interest rates by 200 basis points over the year ending in June, aiming for cheaper credit to boost investment and spending in the region [1] - The Eurozone has experienced sluggish economic growth for several years [1] Group 3: Money Supply - The M3 money supply indicator grew by 2.9%, below the expected 3.3%, reflecting a steady reduction in the ECB's balance sheet [1] - M3 is typically used as an indicator for future economic activity [1]

Group 1: Asset Quality Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a good asset quality level within the industry despite new challenges posed by economic cycles and external conditions [2] - The bank will focus on key areas and adhere to a risk bottom line, implementing a prudent and efficient credit policy [2] - Continuous improvement of credit risk management processes will be supported by financial technology to enhance risk monitoring systems [2] Group 2: Refinance and Internal Growth - The company emphasizes the importance of balancing dividends with internal capital growth to ensure sustainable development [2] - Internal capital is expected to create greater value for the company's development, especially under current refinancing regulatory requirements [2] - The company aims to enhance performance and maintain steady growth in internal capital to provide better returns for shareholders [2] Group 3: Loan Growth Prospects - The company has focused on supporting key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and consumer spending, leading to steady loan growth [2] - Future loan growth is expected to be supported by ongoing policy benefits aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [2] - The bank plans to continue expanding financial service coverage to effectively meet the financing needs of the real economy [2] Group 4: Compliance and Disclosure - During the investor relations activity, the company ensured compliance with disclosure regulations, with no significant undisclosed information leaks reported [2]