当前油价下行的软实力因素分析。一是产油国的规则重构与预期管理。欧佩克联盟的增产策略，2025年4月起连续增产，累计近每天250万桶，12月计划再日 增产13.7万桶，2026年一季度暂停增产计划。这种渐进式调整展现了"可控供应"的规则重构能力。俄罗斯的出口调整，通过出口结构转向亚洲市场（特别是 中国和印度）和技术创新，俄罗斯在西方制裁下保持了全球10%的石油供应份额，体现了规则适应能力。二是地缘政治与规则权力转移。俄乌和平协议预 期，若达成可能解除对俄罗斯部分制裁，增加全球供应，市场预期油价可能回归每桶55~60美元的基准线。这种地缘政治变化实质上是规则权力的重新分 配。美国页岩油产业困境，面临技术红利耗散与资本效率陷阱，未能将初期技术优势转化为持续创新能力，从价值创造者沦为资本消耗者，反映了软实力退 化的过程。三是市场预期的自我实现机制。供应过剩预期强化，交易商密切关注三项关键进展（和平协议落地、对俄制裁解除、额外供应注入），这些预期 本身已对价格形成下行压力。库存指标信号，经合组织（OECD）石油库存自年初以来稳步上升，美国原油库存近期意外大幅增加，海上浮仓原油规模超过 10亿桶，这些数据强化了市场过剩预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies while addressing the declining marginal efficiency of these policies [2][3] - The importance of ensuring consistency between economic and non-economic policies to avoid "composite fallacy" is highlighted, as conflicting policies can lead to suboptimal outcomes [2][3] - The necessity of improving the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policies to achieve intended policy goals is discussed, indicating that a blockage in these mechanisms can hinder effectiveness [3][4] Group 2 - The role of automatic stabilizers and fiscal policy transmission mechanisms is crucial, with income distribution, money supply, and prices being key mediators [4][5] - The need for a robust expectation management mechanism is outlined, emphasizing that market participants' expectations can significantly influence policy effectiveness [6][7] - The importance of matching policy goals with appropriate tools is stressed, referencing Tinbergen's principle that the number of policy instruments should at least equal the number of targets [9] Group 3 - The coordination between short-term and long-term policies is essential for stabilizing economic growth, with short-term counter-cyclical policies needing to align with structural reforms [10][11] - The current economic environment necessitates stronger macroeconomic stimulus policies to break negative cycles and restore confidence among businesses and households [8][11] - The potential negative impacts of short-term policies on long-term structural reforms must be carefully managed to ensure overall policy effectiveness [11]