来源：经济学家圈 1月10日，在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、 重庆市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教 授吴晓求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分主题作演讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如何完善企业股本补充机制；如何理解健全预算管理机制与健全资本市场治理体系的 关系；如何做好资本市场改革工作；如何优化金融结构并提高直接融资比重等话题分享了各自观点。 黄奇帆：建议由银行、社保、保险、外汇资金参与设立股权引导基金 黄奇帆在会上表示，多渠道提高直接融资比重，要"两个轮子"一起转，既要发展好股票市场，也要发展好企业股权投 资基金、完善企业股本市场化补充机制。他建议，可考虑设立一个由银行资金、社保基金、商业保险资金以及外汇资 金等参与的股权引导基金。 黄奇帆表示，在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若按照 3%的比例，可有约1万亿元资本金作为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 此外，高培勇指出，"稳住楼市、股市"从表面上看是稳住 ...

1月10日，在第三十届(2026年度)中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学 院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分 主题作演讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如何完善企业股本补充机制；如何理解健全预算管理机制与健全资本市场治理体系的关系；如何做好资本市场改革工作； 如何优化金融结构并提高直接融资比重等话题分享了各自观点。 黄奇帆：建议由银行、社保、保险、外汇资金参与设立股权引导基金 黄奇帆在会上表示，多渠道提高直接融资比重，要"两个轮子"一起转，既要发展好股票市场，也要发展好企业股权投资基金、完善企业股本市场化补充机 制。他建议，可考虑设立一个由银行资金、社保基金、商业保险资金以及外汇资金等参与的股权引导基金。 黄奇帆表示，在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若按照3%的比例，可有约1万亿元资本金作 为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 在社保资金方面，若按照30%的比例用于股权投资，我国社保基金预计可形成约 ...

黄奇帆：建议由银行、社保、保险、外汇资金参与设立股权引导基金 1月10日，在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常 务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研 究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分主题作演 讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如何完善企业股本补充机制；如何理解健全预算管理机制与健全资本市场治理 体系的关系；如何做好资本市场改革工作；如何优化金融结构并提高直接融资比重等话题分享了各自观点。 黄奇帆在会上表示，多渠道提高直接融资比重，要"两个轮子"一起转，既要发展好股票市场，也要发展好企业 股权投资基金、完善企业股本市场化补充机制。他建议，可考虑设立一个由银行资金、社保基金、商业保险资 金以及外汇资金等参与的股权引导基金。 黄奇帆表示，在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若 按照3%的比例，可有约1万亿元资本金作为股权投资基金母基金的来源。 在社保资金方面，若按照30%的比例用于股权投资，我国社保基金预计可形 ...

Group 1 - The forum highlighted the importance of improving the direct financing ratio in China's capital market, suggesting a dual approach of developing both the stock market and equity investment funds [1][3] - Huang Qifan proposed the establishment of an equity guidance fund involving banks, social security, insurance, and foreign exchange funds, potentially creating a fund size of 40 to 50 trillion yuan to support corporate equity supplementation [3][4] - The discussion emphasized the need for a robust expectation management mechanism as a key aspect of enhancing the governance system of the capital market [4][6] Group 2 - Gao Peiyong stressed that managing expectations will be crucial for macroeconomic governance and the capital market's governance system, linking it to stabilizing market confidence [6][4] - Wu Xiaoqiu pointed out the necessity for reforms in the asset, investment, and institutional aspects of the capital market to meet diverse financing needs and enhance wealth management [8][10] - Ding Zhijie noted that a significant portion of long-term capital remains trapped in the banking system, and transforming household savings into patient capital could optimize the financial structure and increase direct financing [10][11]

1月10日，在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛期间，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆 市原市长黄奇帆，中国社会科学院原副院长、学部委员高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓 求，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰围绕中国资本市场发展分主题作演讲。 在本次论坛上，四位学者分别从如何完善企业股本补充机制；如何理解健全预算管理机制与健全资本市场治理体系的关系； 如何做好资本市场改革工作；如何优化金融结构并提高直接融资比重等话题分享了各自观点。 中央经济工作会议明确提出，健全预期管理机制，提振社会信心。在高培勇看来，这可以折射出互为关联的两个方面的信 息。一方面，市场预期偏弱，社会信心不足，实际上已经构成当下经济发展中面临的突出挑战。另一方面，眺望2026年经济 运行轨迹时，能否跳出需求管理和供给管理的视野局限，深入到预期管理层面，进而从需求、供给、预期管理三者结合的意 义上去着力稳市场、稳就业、稳企业、稳预期，将在很大程度上决定着宏观经济治理的成效。 在银行资金方面，国际上，商业银行3%的资本金可用于股权投资。我国银行资本金规模庞大，若按照3%的比例，可有约1万 亿元资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical phase for China's economic development, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to achieve modernization by 2035, with a focus on expectation management, income distribution reform, and the integration of investment in goods and people [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should reflect the transitional characteristics of the economy, aiming for a solid foundation and comprehensive efforts to meet the 2035 modernization goal [3]. - Emphasis on expectation management mechanisms, integrating them into macroeconomic analysis and policy frameworks [3]. - The need for reform in income distribution systems to establish a fair and just social security and transfer payment system [3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - The period will see peak levels in population, real estate demand, heavy industry scale, export volume, and carbon emissions, necessitating a combination of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic policies for smooth transitions [4]. - High-quality development requires both qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, with a focus on maintaining economic growth while adjusting structures [4]. Group 3: Financial and Resource Management - The "debt-asset-resource" framework is proposed to revitalize existing economic structures, emphasizing the importance of resource liquidity and value creation [4]. - The need for financial theory innovation to support the development of a strong financial nation, addressing practical issues and enhancing core competitiveness [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Governance - Fiscal reforms are essential for national governance, requiring coordination between fiscal policies and other policy areas, while addressing structural issues in the medium to long term [5]. - The establishment of a budget system and tax system that aligns with responsibilities and powers is crucial for effective governance [5]. Group 5: Consumer-Focused Financial Systems - A consumer-friendly financial system is necessary to address the challenges in financial services and consumer behavior, promoting supply-side financial reforms and enhancing financial inclusivity [6]. - The significance of building a consumer-friendly financial system lies in guiding financial reforms and advancing inclusive finance [6]. Group 6: Forum Discussions - The conference featured six sub-forums discussing topics such as AI empowerment in think tank construction, economic growth and macroeconomic policies, fiscal policies and tax reforms, and the dual circulation development pattern [6].

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Gao Peiyong emphasizes the dual approach of policy support and reform innovation as essential for driving economic development in 2026 [1] - Current weak market expectations are identified as a significant factor hindering economic recovery, necessitating the establishment of a robust expectation management mechanism [1] - Gao proposes three key measures for improving expectation management: integrating expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis, explicitly including stable expectations in macroeconomic policy goals, and incorporating reform measures into macroeconomic regulation practices [1] Group 2 - Consumption is highlighted as a lasting driver of economic growth, with its effectiveness depending on both the release of current consumption potential and the cultivation of long-term consumption capacity [2] - The deep-rooted issue of insufficient consumer demand is attributed to changes in income and wealth accumulation patterns, leading to uncertainty in future expectations [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference's focus on implementing a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income is seen as a crucial step in reforming the income distribution system [2] Group 3 - The fiscal and tax system is called to transition towards a public finance model, focusing on optimizing the government revenue and expenditure structure [3] - Adjustments in government spending are recommended, shifting funds from "investment in material" to "investment in people," particularly in social welfare and livelihood security [3] - This transformation is described as a profound change in the fiscal system's function, aimed at enhancing public service spending and increasing investments in livelihood, ultimately fostering a virtuous cycle of income growth and consumption increase [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of confidence and expectations in China's economic development, highlighting a shift in focus towards quality and structural optimization in economic growth [2][3] - The meeting acknowledged the achievements of 2025 while also recognizing ongoing challenges, particularly the "prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand" [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy direction remains "more proactive," with continued implementation of "more active fiscal policies" and "moderately loose monetary policies" [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting introduced the concept of integrating stock and incremental policies, as well as enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a balanced approach to future macroeconomic policies [3] - Emphasis was placed on managing expectations and boosting social confidence, with fiscal policies aimed at maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and addressing local fiscal difficulties [3][4] - The focus on long-term momentum cultivation includes expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with significant attention on investment recovery and support for private investment [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting outlined eight key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for innovation-driven growth and the establishment of a unified national market, which may indicate a stronger focus on these areas in the coming year [4][5] - In the realm of social welfare, the meeting addressed employment, education, healthcare, and safety, indicating a comprehensive approach to improving living standards [5][6] - The proposed differentiated assessment system for local governments suggests a tailored approach to economic work and sustainable development, reflecting the need for localized strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan, and incremental policies will be implemented in 2026 based on evolving circumstances to promote stable economic growth [1][3]. Economic Performance - The year 2025 is highlighted as significant for China's modernization, with major economic indicators expected to meet targets, and a growth rate of around 5% is forecasted for the year [2]. - China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, with strong performance in employment, foreign trade, and advancements in modern industrial systems, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [2][3]. Policy Implementation - Incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 to enhance macroeconomic governance, focusing on both existing and new policies to foster economic stability [4]. - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, ensuring necessary fiscal deficits and expenditures while enhancing local financial autonomy and optimizing expenditure structures [4][5]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors such as technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [5]. - The alignment of fiscal and monetary policies will be reinforced to ensure cohesive economic measures [5]. Economic Strategy - Five key principles for economic work have been outlined: maximizing economic potential, balancing policy support with reform, effective regulation, combining investments in physical and human capital, and strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges [6][7]. - The focus will be on expanding both exports and imports to promote sustainable foreign trade development [8]. Income and Employment - Efforts will be made to synchronize income growth with economic growth, with initiatives to boost consumer spending and enhance employment quality, particularly for vulnerable groups [9][10]. - Green development will be prioritized, with plans for energy transition and carbon emission control to support high-quality growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025-2026 China Economic Annual Conference will be held on December 13, focusing on implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and promoting high-quality development for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Economic Policy and Governance - The Deputy Director of the Central Financial Office, Han Wenxiu, emphasized the need for steady progress in economic work next year, aiming for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1] - There will be an increase in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to effectively enhance macroeconomic governance [1] - A series of policy measures have been implemented since the Politburo meeting on September 26 last year, with plans for additional incremental policies based on changing circumstances next year [1] Group 2: Market Expectations and Confidence - The integration of existing and new policies will be crucial to promote economic stability and improvement [1] - The market economy largely depends on economic expectations, necessitating the establishment of a sound expectation management mechanism [1] - Effective economic communication and public opinion guidance are essential to respond to market concerns and boost social confidence [1]