新 春 快 乐 顺流逆流，皆为行路的风景；心有罗盘，便有笃定的方向。券商中国微信平台粉丝总量已强势突破600 万大关，值此2026年新春佳节来临之际，我们深深感恩每一位读者朋友长久的信任与陪伴。在此，券商 中国、券中社APP诚邀各大金融机构共同录制新春寄语视频，一起回顾2025年的精彩历程与深刻洞察， 携手展望2026年的崭新蓝图与无限可能。 鑫元基金党委书记、董事长龙艺在《预见金马》年终策划中表示，展望2026年，宏观政策将持续靠前发 力，经济转型向纵深突破，逆周期调节与跨周期调控协同增效，经济治理效能稳步提升，资本市场运行 环境将持续得到改善。同时，随着房地产金融属性弱化、存款加速"脱媒"，居民与企业金融资产配置需 求持续释放，为公募基金行业打开了长期发展空间。 以下为视频全文： 各位证券时报的读者朋友们，大家好，我是鑫元基金党委书记、董事长龙艺。 灵蛇辞旧岁，骏马踏春归。在这辞旧迎新、万象更新的美好时刻，我谨代表鑫元基金全体同仁，向长期 以来关心支持我们的广大投资者、合作伙伴及社会各界朋友，致以最诚挚的新春问候和最美好的节日祝 福，祝大家新春快乐、阖家安康、万事顺意、马到成功！ 2025年，鑫元基金紧紧 ...

未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类资管产品 之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更丰富的资产类别供 投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这离不开一个重要的"吸引力前 提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因 此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业 良性竞争生态的关键一环。 早在1月中旬举行的国新办新闻发布会上，央行公布的一组数据就能看出存款腾挪背后的流向趋势：2025年资管产 品募集自住户和非金融企业的资金分别增加4万亿元和1万亿元，资管产品底层资产中，存款和存单新增4.6万亿 元，占资管各类新增底层资产的五成。 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中很大规模 资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金配置的主要诉求是 保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需 ...

Core Insights - The 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo will feature the "2025 China-Europe Financial and Investment Greater Bay Area Exchange Conference and the 9th China-Europe Shenzhen Forum CLF50 Winter Meeting" to discuss future financial trends [1] - The conference aims to gather industry insights and explore value investment strategies amid global economic restructuring and uncertainty [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The Shenzhen Financial Expo is the largest and highest-standard financial event in the Greater Bay Area, taking place from November 19-21 at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center [1] - The event will include participation from numerous universities to connect industry, academia, and research resources for financial discipline development and talent cultivation [1] Group 2: Key Presentations and Discussions - The "European Regional Economic Research Report 2024-2025 (EU Volume)" will be launched, providing the latest research findings on European regional economic development [2] - A keynote speech will feature four industry experts, including the Deputy Dean of China Europe International Business School and the Chief Economist of Industrial Bank [2] Group 3: Roundtable Discussion - A roundtable discussion themed "Value Restructuring and Investment Map under Global Cycle Changes" will be held, featuring various experts from finance and investment sectors [3] - The discussion aims to provide cutting-edge insights into value investment in the context of global economic changes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the transformation of China's car market, driven by rising disposable income among car-buying families and a shift in spending priorities from housing to child-rearing and travel [4][9][31] - In 2024, the average disposable income of car-buying families in China surpassed 200,000 yuan, reaching 204,900 yuan, while their spending slightly decreased to 140,900 yuan, resulting in a savings increase to 64,000 yuan [4][21] - The reduction in housing loan burdens has allowed families to redirect their spending towards cars, travel, and entertainment, positioning the car market as a potential driver for domestic demand [6][7][31] Group 2 - The proportion of housing loan repayments in family expenditures has significantly decreased from over 70% in 2019 to 56.46% in 2024, allowing for increased discretionary spending [6][31] - The average age of car-buying families has risen to over 40, with a growing proportion of middle-class families, indicating a shift in the demographic profile of car buyers [4][10][31] - The trend of child-rearing expenses is expected to surpass housing costs as the primary expenditure for families by 2025-2030, leading to a more personalized and quality-driven car market [9][10][31] Group 3 - Post-pandemic, travel spending among car-buying families has surged, with over 35% of families spending more than 15% of their income on travel in 2024, indicating a strong correlation between travel and car purchases [12][13] - The rise of self-driving tours is reshaping the high-end car market, with local brands benefiting from this trend as they cater to family-oriented travel needs [13][31] - The shift in family spending from housing to financial assets is expected to enhance the quality of car purchases, with financial assets projected to exceed 50% of total assets by 2030 [23][24][31] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need for car manufacturers to adapt their strategies to meet the evolving demands of families, particularly in smaller cities where the market is expected to grow significantly [26][27][31] - The focus on high-end products must also consider the price sensitivity of consumers in smaller cities, as they seek value-driven options [27][31] - The potential for a new era of car consumption characterized by quality and personalization is anticipated as families increasingly prioritize child-rearing and travel in their spending [10][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "fixed income +" products, which primarily invest in fixed income assets while incorporating a small portion of equity assets to enhance returns, aiming for stable long-term asset appreciation [1][2] Group 1: Investment Strategy - "Fixed income +" products are categorized based on equity allocation: medium volatility with 10%-20% equity and high volatility with over 20% equity [1] - The current economic environment shows weak traditional economic cycles, but sectors like technology, manufacturing, innovative pharmaceuticals, exports, and consumption have long-term growth potential [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation - Financial asset allocation is deemed crucial for residents, with low-risk interest rates expected to remain in a low range, making it difficult for a trend reversal in the short term [1] - The article suggests that single asset allocation may not yield stable and favorable returns over the long term, highlighting the need for diversified strategies [1] Group 3: Product Management - "Fixed income +" products require refined management to control volatility and achieve excess returns, catering to different risk appetites [2] - The focus is on providing stable strategies that match risk and return, selecting high-probability individual bonds and stocks within each product's asset allocation framework [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes discuss the financial market dynamics, particularly focusing on the non-bank deposit ratio as an indicator of private sector financial asset allocation, which tends to rise during bullish equity markets and decline when the real economy and real estate are weak [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Non-Bank Deposit Ratio Trends**: The non-bank deposit ratio has shown significant increases during periods of strong equity market performance, specifically noted in July 2020, December 2021, and projected from December 2023 to December 2024. Currently, the ratio stands at approximately 13%, with historical highs reaching 14% [1][4]. - **Impact of Economic Indicators**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) and housing price diffusion index are critical in assessing the influence of the real economy and real estate returns on financial asset allocation. Weakness in these indicators leads to a preference for financial assets, as seen in historical cycles from 2011-2015 and 2014-2015 [1][5]. - **Policy Environment**: The political bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized risk prevention in key areas and support for capital market development, indicating a favorable policy outlook for the capital markets while being less optimistic about real estate [6]. - **Historical Market Dynamics**: The analysis of the 2014 market shows that an increase in incremental capital significantly supported the stock market, with a notable rise in new account openings and silver-to-stock transfers in the latter half of the year [7][8]. - **Market Style Shifts**: Historical data from 2014 and 2015 indicates that market styles shifted based on the influx of capital. High-performing stocks, large-cap stocks, and low P/E stocks outperformed during periods of significant capital inflow, suggesting a potential for similar trends if new capital enters the market [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Current Market Sentiment**: There is a growing trend of style switching in the market, with a need to monitor retail investors and private sector tendencies towards equity asset allocation. An increase in this inclination could lead to a higher likelihood of style shifts [2][10]. - **Future Projections**: If the slope of capital inflow continues to steepen, it may lead to a reversal of past effective factors, with a potential preference for high-performing and large-cap stocks in a low real economy return environment [9][10]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, policy decisions, and market dynamics, providing a framework for understanding potential investment opportunities and risks in the current financial landscape.

Core Insights - The Chinese asset management industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the total scale expected to exceed 150 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a historical high [1] - Various sub-sectors, including public funds, bank wealth management, insurance asset management, trust industry, and private equity, are contributing to the overall development of the asset management landscape [1][2] Public Funds - The public fund sector is leading the industry with a scale of 43.43 trillion yuan, showing the highest growth rate among all asset management sectors [2] - Approximately 82.4% of the 1.93 million funds achieved positive returns in 2024, with an average return of 5.06% [2] - The average returns for different fund types include 8.85% for equity funds, 4.49% for bond funds, and 3.71% for mixed funds [2] Trust Industry - The trust industry is undergoing a transformation, with trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan, a historical high, and a 55.61% year-on-year increase in funds directed towards the securities market [2][3] - Regulatory policies are encouraging trust companies to shift from traditional non-standard financing to standardized products, enhancing market liquidity and rational capital allocation [3] Bank Wealth Management - As of Q1 2025, there are 215 banks and 31 wealth management companies with a total of 40,600 existing wealth management products, with a scale of 29.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a 9.41% year-on-year increase [3] - New regulations are being drafted to standardize information disclosure for asset management products, which will positively impact the market's health [3] Financial Asset Allocation - The proportion of financial assets in Chinese households is increasing, with a notable reliance on fixed deposits, which account for 33.6% of total financial assets, significantly higher than in the US and other developed countries [5] - There is a trend towards higher risk asset allocation among residents, with a growing interest in investment products as low-interest rates drive the search for higher returns [6][7] Investment Behavior - A survey indicates that 61.4% of residents prefer saving, while 13.6% are inclined towards more investment, showing a slight increase in investment interest [6] - The preferred investment methods include bank, securities, and insurance company wealth management products, as well as fund trust products and stocks [6] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The asset management industry faces challenges such as declining yields and increasing volatility, which complicate asset allocation [8] - Future competitiveness will depend on the ability to provide diverse investment strategies and meet differentiated client needs [8][10] Innovation and Digitalization - Financial institutions are innovating to offer more equity-linked wealth management products, enhancing the variety of investment options available to investors [9] - Digital tools are becoming essential for improving asset allocation capabilities and operational efficiency, which can strengthen competitive advantages in the market [10]