Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1.14%, reaching $4,113.67 per ounce [1] - Spot silver rose by 3%, reaching $52.17 per ounce [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, events had little impact, funds took profits and fled, leading to a significant decline in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices are under downward pressure and will mainly fluctuate this week, with attention needed on the Fed meeting, China-US consultation progress, and US PCE data [13] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of gold and silver futures contracts and spot prices all declined. For example, Shanghai Gold 2512 fell 4.89%, COMEX Gold 2512 fell 2.05%, Shanghai Silver 2512 fell 7.34%, and COMEX Silver 2512 fell 3.38%. The US dollar index rose 0.39%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.01% [4][13] - China-US economic and trade consultations were held from October 25th to 26th, and both sides reached a basic consensus on resolving concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year-on-year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in the expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed within the remaining time of this year. There were also developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, such as the US imposing new sanctions on Russian oil companies and the EU passing a new sanctions package [13][15][16] 2. Weekly Review - Events last week had little impact, funds took profits and fled, causing a significant decline in precious metal prices. This week, there are many events and data releases, including the APEC leaders' informal meeting, central bank interest rate decisions, and the release of China's PMI and the Fed's favorite inflation indicator PCE. The downward pressure on precious metal prices remains under the optimistic trade expectation, and they will mainly fluctuate [13] 3. Fundamental Data - The US 10 - year Treasury yield oscillated and fell to 4.38%. There were also developments in economic data such as inflation and employment, and geopolitical events affected the market [13][15][23] 4. Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased significantly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The long position decreased by 8.33%, the short position decreased by 10.89%, and the net position decreased by 6.61%. For Shanghai Silver, the net position decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The long position decreased by 6.31%, the short position decreased by 6.98%, and the net position decreased by 4.21%. As of September 23rd, the CFTC gold net long position increased slightly, and the CFTC silver net long position continued to increase. The SPDR gold ETF position increased significantly, while the silver ETF position decreased slightly. The inventories of Shanghai Gold, COMEX Gold, Shanghai Silver, and COMEX Silver all increased [26][28][29] 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, China-US consultation progress, and US PCE data. Under the optimistic trade expectation, the downward pressure on precious metal prices remains, and they will mainly fluctuate [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent approach of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the weakening of most economic data have led to a more obvious impact on domestic commodities. The risk appetite in the domestic market fluctuates greatly, but the silver price is still supported overall, showing a pattern of strong silver and weak gold. The probability of policy intensification increases due to the slowdown of domestic economic data in August [26]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have significantly increased. The political pressure on the Fed is huge. The impact of US economic data is magnified under the shadow Fed. The expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has risen to 3 times, and the expectation for next year has also started to increase. The interest - rate cut in the September Fed meeting this week is almost certain. The rise of gold and silver prices driven by expectations has been completed, and there has been no early decline yet. The sentiment is neutral and slightly bullish, and the future depends on Trump's political suppression of the Fed [26][55]. - Gold and silver prices are significantly affected by risk preference. In the past three years, they have shown a positive correlation. Under the loose expectation, risk preference is high, and a shift in asset preference cannot be ruled out. Gold and silver prices tend to complete the process of rising and then falling before the occurrence of key events. After the non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly revised down, there has been a post - event correction trend, but there has been no obvious decline, and the sentiment may still remain. The strength of the driving force for gold and silver prices depends on the September dot - plot, but the upward trend remains unchanged [55]. - The prices of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are currently at historical highs with no upper pressure levels. It is recommended to hold them for the long - term. The pressure level for COMEX silver is at 43.75, and it is very likely to reach this price, and the pattern of strong silver and weak gold remains unchanged [55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since 2020, there have been only 45 trading days when the daily increase in positions of Shanghai silver exceeded 50,000 lots, and only 3 trading days when it exceeded 100,000 lots. On September 1st, the increase was 92,000 lots. For Shanghai gold, there have been only 8 trading days when the daily increase in positions exceeded 20,000 lots, and only on September 1st did it exceed 30,000 lots [14]. 3.2 Logical Analysis - Affected by the approaching Fed's interest - rate meeting and the weakening of most economic data, domestic commodities have been more significantly impacted. The risk preference in the domestic market fluctuates greatly, but the silver price is still supported overall, being affected by the photovoltaic industry and the chip sector, resulting in a pattern of strong silver and weak gold. The slowdown of domestic economic data in August increases the probability of policy intensification [26]. - Trade disputes still exist, but the agreements of major trading economies have been basically determined in the short term, and market attention has significantly decreased. The weakening trend of US dollar assets has been broken, but with the significant increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the political pressure on the Fed is huge. The impact of US economic data is magnified under the shadow Fed. The expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has risen to 3 times, and the expectation for next year has also started to increase. The interest - rate cut in the September Fed meeting this week is almost certain [26][55]. - In August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the previous year's employment data, further increasing economic concerns. The bond market reflects economic concerns, while the stock market reflects the optimistic expectation of interest - rate cuts. Both factors push up the prices of gold and silver. As the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle approaches, the driving force of the optimistic expectation of interest - rate cuts is more obvious [26]. - Geopolitical frictions continue, and political turmoil within many countries has intensified [26]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have significantly increased. The probability of an interest - rate cut in September is 100%, 82.3% in October, and the expectation of three interest - rate cuts in December reaches 77% [29][31][34]. - The prices of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are currently at historical highs with no upper pressure levels. The pressure level for COMEX silver is at 43.75, and it is very likely to reach this price, and the pattern of strong silver and weak gold remains unchanged [55]. 3.4 Position Data - As of September 12, 2025, for Shanghai gold's top 20 positions, the long - position volume was 251,147 lots, an increase of 1.32% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 84,280 lots, an increase of 0.16%; and the net position was 166,867 lots, an increase of 1.91% [42]. - As of September 12, 2025, for Shanghai silver's top 20 positions, the long - position volume was 386,061 lots, an increase of 6.68% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 285,157 lots, an increase of 17.73%; and the net position was 100,904 lots, a decrease of 15.69% [45]. - Gold ETF positions have increased in a volatile manner, while silver ETF positions have decreased in a volatile manner and have not recovered with the price increase. The sentiment has started to cool down before the event [46]. - COMEX gold inventories are fluctuating and remain at the highest level in the past 5 years. Shanghai gold inventories continue to increase. COMEX silver inventories continue to increase, and there are still concerns about tariffs. Shanghai silver inventories have recently increased and are higher than the same period last year [48][50][51]. 3.5 Summary - This week is a heavy - weight central bank week. The Fed, along with the central banks of Japan, the UK, and Canada, will announce their latest policy interest rates. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have significantly increased, and the political pressure on the Fed is huge. The impact of US economic data is magnified under the shadow Fed. The expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has risen to 3 times, and the expectation for next year has also started to increase. The interest - rate cut in the September Fed meeting this week is almost certain. The rise of gold and silver prices driven by expectations has been completed, and there has been no early decline yet. The sentiment is neutral and slightly bullish. The future depends on Trump's political suppression of the Fed. The return of a favorable environment for gold and silver price increases, combined with a loose cycle and a weakening US dollar [55]. - Gold and silver prices are significantly affected by risk preference. In the past three years, they have shown a positive correlation. Under the loose expectation, risk preference is high, and a shift in asset preference cannot be ruled out. Gold and silver prices tend to complete the process of rising and then falling before the occurrence of key events. After the non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly revised down, there has been a post - event correction trend, but there has been no obvious decline, and the sentiment may still remain. The strength of the driving force for gold and silver prices depends on the September dot - plot, but the upward trend remains unchanged [55]. - The prices of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are currently at historical highs with no upper pressure levels. It is recommended to hold them for the long - term. The pressure level for COMEX silver is at 43.75, and it is very likely to reach this price, and the pattern of strong silver and weak gold remains unchanged [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver, and recent positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut. Although the employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts all declined, with the decline rates of Shanghai gold futures at -0.32% and that of Shanghai silver futures at -1.37% and -1.35% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of spot gold and silver also decreased, with the decline rate of London silver reaching -1.66%. The price differences between different contracts and the ratios of Shanghai gold/silver to London gold/silver changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX changed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory increasing by 11,020 kilograms and the COMEX's gold inventory decreasing by 17,425.86 ounces [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators**: The US dollar index rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index fell by -0.59%, the US Treasury yield decreased by -0.92%, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased slightly [2]. Macro News - Trump stated that the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. The US planned a tripartite meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest [3]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50% [3]. - Japan and the US planned to closely discuss the implementation of a $550 billion investment in the US and set up a mechanism to verify national interests [3]. - The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the US in July increased by 5.2%, reaching 1.428 million units, higher than market expectations [3]. Comments and Strategies - The unexpected inflation data in the US last week pressured gold and silver, and the positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut [4]. - Previously, the US Treasury Secretary believed that there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, but the inflation data has changed this expectation [4]. - The employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, but the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4].

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing multiple dynamics, including rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a declining US dollar index, and fluctuating prices for gold and silver, with London gold stabilizing around $3,300 per ounce and London silver around $33 per ounce [1] - The investment landscape for gold and silver is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain concerns due to tariff policies, leading to a dual logic of safe-haven demand and industrial attributes [1] - Year-to-date, London gold has increased over 12%, while silver has shown higher volatility, presenting differentiated investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Comparison of Gold and Silver Characteristics - London gold is viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset, with price fluctuations primarily driven by macroeconomic cycles and monetary policy, particularly the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [3] - The expected core PCE inflation rate for 2025 is 2.7%, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - London silver, with over 50% of its demand coming from industrial applications, saw a 21.5% price increase in 2024, but is expected to face a 21% reduction in global supply gap in 2025, making it more susceptible to short-term market sentiment [3] Group 2: Role of Jinsheng Precious Metals in Investment Decisions - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange, offers a trading platform that connects deeply with international markets, providing 24-hour two-way trading services for gold and silver [4] - The platform features a transparent cost structure with a standard spread of $30 per lot for gold and $100 per lot for silver, along with a leverage ratio of 1:100 [4] - Jinsheng's customer service team is available 24/7 to assist investors, especially during critical market events such as Federal Reserve policy changes [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - A suggested strategy for ordinary investors is to adopt a "gold base + silver enhancement" approach, allocating 70% of the portfolio to gold and 30% to silver [5] - Key signals to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June and changes in US non-farm employment data, which could influence gold and silver prices [5] - Jinsheng's simulated trading feature serves as a testing ground for various strategies, helping investors avoid pitfalls in real trading scenarios [5] Conclusion - In the context of shifting Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical changes, the investment value of London gold and silver varies, with Jinsheng Precious Metals providing a compliant, transparent, and professional trading platform for investors [7] - Both long-term holders seeking stability and short-term traders looking to capitalize on volatility can find suitable solutions within Jinsheng's ecosystem [7]