1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Pay attention to callback pressure for single - side trading; perform rolling operations for hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive spreads or use options tools to assist in procurement and sales [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Investment clients should short - allocate on rallies, and industrial clients can use put options to protect spot exposures [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily wait and see [8] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a weak and volatile state. The decline in hot metal production triggers a phased negative feedback, and the cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to the pressure release of hot - rolled coils [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese follow the black - sector fluctuations, with insufficient driving forces. The supply is high while the demand is weak, and the price will be under pressure [3][5] - In the coking coal and coke market, the second round of coke price cuts has started, and the coking coal auction is weak. Affected by weak reality and weak expectations, the prices continue to hit new lows [6] - The iron ore price has fallen after oscillating at the upper edge of the range. With the decline in hot metal production, the inventory will continue to accumulate, and short positions can be held [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 11, the closing prices of far - month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, I2609, J2605, and JM2609 were 3103.00 yuan/ton, 3248.00 yuan/ton, 733.00 yuan/ton, 1657.00 yuan/ton, and 1112.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 36.00 yuan, - 37.00 yuan, - 9.50 yuan, - 49.50 yuan, and - 49.00 yuan, and percentage changes of - 1.15%, - 1.13%, - 1.28%, - 2.90%, and - 4.22% respectively [1] - The closing prices of near - month contracts (main contracts) for RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2601, and JM2605 were 3069.00 yuan/ton, 3238.00 yuan/ton, 757.00 yuan/ton, 1491.50 yuan/ton, and 1035.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 41.00 yuan, - 39.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, - 45.50 yuan, and - 47.50 yuan, and percentage changes of - 1.32%, - 1.19%, - 1.30%, - 2.96%, and - 4.39% respectively [1] - The cross - month spreads for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, I2605 - 2609, J2601 - 2605, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 34.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, 24.00 yuan/ton, - 165.50 yuan/ton, and - 77.00 yuan/ton respectively on December 11 [1] - The spreads, ratios, and profits of main contracts on December 11: the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 169.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.05, the coking coal - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar disk profit was 16.45 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 114.95 yuan/ton [1] Spot Market - On December 11, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, 3480.00 yuan/ton, 2940.00 yuan/ton, and 105.00 respectively, with changes of - 50.00 yuan, - 60.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, - 20.00 yuan, and - 1.40 respectively [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB were 3240.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, 3250.00 yuan/ton, 310.00 yuan/ton, and 789.00 yuan/ton respectively on December 11, with changes of - 50.00 yuan, - 60.00 yuan, - 70.00 yuan, - 30.00 yuan, and 2.00 yuan respectively [1] - The spot prices of some coking products on December 11: the price of a certain product was 676.00 yuan/ton, another was 726.00 yuan/ton, the coal price was 1170.00 yuan/ton, the coking coal at Ganqimao Port (out - of - warehouse) was 1580.00 yuan/ton, and the Qingdao Port PB was 790.00 yuan/ton, with changes of 7.00 yuan, 7.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 3.00 yuan respectively [1] - The basis for HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract on December 11 was 2.00 yuan/ton, 181.00 yuan/ton, 22.00 yuan/ton, 242.42 yuan/ton, and 165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 6.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 35.50 yuan, and 35.00 yuan respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Low-level range operation [3] - Coke: First round of price cut implemented, range operation [8] - Coking Coal: Supply still has disruptions, maintain range operation [12] - Ferroalloys: Limited supply-demand contradictions, maintain range operation [15] Core Views of the Report - Steel: The fundamentals of rebar are weakly balanced, with slightly decreased production and apparent demand, and decreased inventory. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased slightly, the apparent demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] - Iron Ore: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, the fundamentals have weakened, and a cautious bearish view is taken [6][7] - Coke: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, and inventories have accumulated. Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. It is expected to follow coking coal in the short term [10] - Coking Coal: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, and the market transaction is light. It is expected to repair the basis and maintain range operation [13] - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] Summary by Variety Rebar - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly, inventory decreased, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. Iron water production decreased, and steel mills' willingness to reduce production is low [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term lack of strong driving force, may fluctuate in the range [5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Variety View**: Production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Iron water production decreased slightly, steel mills' willingness to reduce production is not strong, and it may fluctuate in the range in the short term [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, steel mills are destocking, ports are increasing inventory, and the fundamentals have weakened [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken, and long positions should avoid the edge for the time being [7] Coke - **Variety View**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, inventories have accumulated, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. Iron water production has decreased, and most steel mills have maintenance plans [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [11] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, the market transaction is light, and downstream restocking needs to be concerned [13] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [14] Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The short-term cost has certain support, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is recommended to be cautious [17] Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is expected to operate in the range [17]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have reached the resistance level of the 20 - day moving average. After the basis repair, if the industry fails to find a better bullish story, prices may face pressure again. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [4][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continues to fluctuate. With the long - term agreement price and quantity discounts from major mines in Shanxi, the cost of coking coal is decreasing. The market has expectations of price cuts. Considering the high uncertainty in the macro - environment and the approaching off - season for steel demand, it is advisable to take a short - side approach in the medium - to - long - term [4][5]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the price elasticity increases. The cost support for silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon is weakening, and the prices are expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel procurement [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipment is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. Considering the approaching off - season for steel demand, it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 11, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various varieties showed different degrees of increase. For example, the far - month contract RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.54%; the near - month contract RB2510 closed at 2991 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.67% [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton on June 11, with a change of 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of various products such as Shanghai's rebar, Tianjin's rebar, and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil also had different changes on June 11. For example, the price of Shanghai's rebar was 3100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The price has reached the resistance of the 20 - day moving average. After the basis repair, the price may face pressure again if there is no good bullish story. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot - rolled coils and rebar are around the 20 - day moving average on the disk [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, major mines in Shanxi have increased long - term agreement price and quantity discounts, and the coking coal auction remains weak. On the futures side, the sector continues to fluctuate. After the news of the poor outcome of the China - US talks, the market sentiment turned bearish, and short - sellers started to increase their positions [4][5]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: There are rumors of furnace shutdowns in Inner Mongolia's silicon ferroalloy plants. The direct demand is weakening, the cost support is weakening, and the prices are expected to be under pressure [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipment is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. Considering the approaching off - season for steel demand, the downstream pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [5].