螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报 2025/11/25 陈敏涛 投资咨询证号：Z0022731 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 螺纹价格区间预测 | | 01合约区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 波动率百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 2900-3300 | 11.25% | 14.7% | | 热卷 | 3100-3500 | 9.34% | 3.80% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 螺纹风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | | | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空螺纹或是热卷期货来锁定 | RB2601 | 卖出 | 30% | 3200-325 0 3350-340 | | | | | 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current state of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream steel industry remains unchanged, with the peak season not living up to expectations. During the National Day holiday, steel consumption declined more than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Iron ore production remains high, and the steel inventory accumulation rate is higher than the same period in previous years [3]. - Although the demand data of the five major steel products rebounded regularly after the holiday, it was still lower than the pre - holiday level. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the steel industry remained unchanged [3]. - Today, the iron ore in the furnace material end continued to fall, but the prices of coking coal and coke increased significantly. With the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, the market still has expectations for macro - policy stimulus, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. However, in the absence of improvement in the steel fundamentals, today's rebound is more of a rebound after a long - term decline and is driven by the coking coal and coke end, with limited rebound space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly forecast range for the 01 contract of rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.60% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 11.76% and a volatility percentile of 12.86% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about steel price drops, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. For example, short RB2501 and HC2501 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the suggested entry intervals of 3100 - 3150 and 3280 - 3350 respectively. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the steel price rises, such as selling RB2601C3400 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 30 - 40 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For example, buy RB2601 and HC2601 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the intervals of 3000 - 3050 and 3200 - 3250 respectively. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the rebar price drops, such as selling RB2601P2900 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 35 - 45 [3]. 3.2 Market Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The Fourth Plenary Session in October and production restriction disturbances [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Steel inventory accumulation beyond the seasonal norm and the increasing pressure of negative feedback [5]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3049, 3102, and 3141 respectively, with daily changes of 15, 12, and 191, and weekly changes of - 47, - 57, and 121. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3219, 3233, and 3254 respectively, with daily changes of 7, 10, and - 356, and weekly changes of - 67, - 60, and - 116. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also showed certain changes [5]. - **Spreads**: - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: On October 16, 2025, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 53, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10; the rebar 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 92, with a daily change of 176 and a weekly change of 168. The hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 14, with a daily change of - 7 and a weekly change of - 7; the hot - rolled coil 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 35, with a daily change of - 363 and a weekly change of - 49 [6]. - **Roll - Rebar Spreads**: The 01 roll - rebar spread, 05 roll - rebar spread, and 10 roll - rebar spread also had corresponding changes, and the spot roll - rebar spreads in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang also showed different trends [6]. - **Other Spreads**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore, 05 rebar/05 iron ore, 10 rebar/09 iron ore, and the ratios of rebar to coke also had certain changes [8]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report also provides a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar 01 contract basis (in Hangzhou Zhongtian, Beijing, etc.), hot - rolled coil 01 basis (in Zhangjiagang Shagang, etc.), iron ore 01 basis, coking coal 01 contract basis, coke 01 contract basis, rebar and hot - rolled coil month - to - month spreads, rebar and hot - rolled coil 01盘面利润, various steel product profits (including immediate and raw - material - lagged profits), spot roll - rebar spreads, hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, and warehouse receipt inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [9][11][17][20][21][25][31][34][37][50][57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sudden news of a coal mine accident, combined with the public opinion effect of safety production assessment inspections and the market sentiment boost from the rise of related varieties such as gold and non - ferrous metals, drove the futures market to rise. However, the actual supply impact of the coal mine accident was limited, and it was more of a short - term emotional drive [3]. - During the holiday, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was weak, and the inventory accumulation rate was significantly faster than in previous years. The inventory - to - sales ratio had climbed to a high level in the same period in recent years, indicating significant de - stocking pressure on steel products [3]. - Long - process steel mills still had some profit margins and had a low willingness to cut production actively, while there were no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. The contradiction between high supply and insufficient demand persisted, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually accumulating [3]. - Although there was replenishment support on the raw material side before the holiday, it was expected that the post - holiday replenishment momentum would weaken under the state of steel's super - seasonal inventory accumulation. The strengthening of the futures market was only a rebound driven by events and emotional repair, not a fundamental - driven reversal. The upward resistance was significant, and the market was expected to remain under pressure in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted price range for the 01 - contract of rebar in October was 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. The predicted price range for the 01 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 11.95% and a volatility percentile of 13.34% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling steel prices, it was recommended to short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio for RB2501 and HC2501 was 30%, with the entry range of 3130 - 3200 yuan/ton for RB2501 and 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton for HC2501. Selling call options (RB2601C3400) was also recommended to reduce capital costs, with a ratio of 20% and an entry range of 30 - 40 yuan [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, it was recommended to buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio for RB2601 and HC2601 was 30%, with the entry range of 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton for RB2601 and 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton for HC2601. Selling put options (RB2601P2900) was also recommended to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a ratio of 20% and an entry range of 35 - 45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3096 yuan/ton, 3159 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 24 yuan/ton, 31 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly changes of - 68 yuan/ton, - 68 yuan/ton, and - 51 yuan/ton respectively. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3286 yuan/ton, 3293 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 33 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and - 14 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly changes of - 71 yuan/ton, - 72 yuan/ton, and - 44 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Tianjin were 3258 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, 3290 yuan/ton, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3350 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Overseas Data**: As of October 9, 2025, the FOB export prices of hot - rolled coil in China, Japan, India, Turkey, and the CIS were 480 US dollars/ton, 500 US dollars/ton, 512 US dollars/ton, 540 US dollars/ton, and 485 US dollars/ton respectively. The CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, the EU, and India were 493 US dollars/ton, 530 US dollars/ton, 565 US dollars/ton, and 422 US dollars/ton respectively [6]. - **Spread Data**: On October 9, 2025, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar were - 63 yuan/ton, 139 yuan/ton, and - 76 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of hot - rolled coil were - 7 yuan/ton, - 125 yuan/ton, and 84 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 181 yuan/ton, 131 yuan/ton, and 350 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 ratios of rebar to iron ore were 3.94, 4.12, and 4.04 respectively, and the 01, 05, and 10 ratios of rebar to coke were 1.89, 1.77, and 1.62 respectively [6][8][10]. 3.4 Seasonal Data The report also provided a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar and hot - rolled coil basis, month - spreads, profits, costs, and inventory, etc., which could help investors understand the historical laws of the market and make more informed investment decisions [13][15][27][33][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - **Overseas Data**: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - **Spreads**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - **Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - **Seasonal Data**: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].