Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals operating weakly. Steel prices in the off - season continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily decrease of 0.09%, also showing decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, hot - rolled coil supply is continuously increasing while demand has slightly declined. Both supply and demand are at high levels, and the supply - increasing and demand - weakening fundamentals are operating weakly, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.06%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, iron ore supply remains at a high level, and the improvement in demand is limited. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and inventories are rising at a high level, with weak upward drivers. The relatively positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%. The total value of imports and exports reached a new high, and China will continue to maintain its position as the world's largest goods trading country [7]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, with production at 34.531 million vehicles and sales at 34.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. It has ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new vehicle sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, and exports of new energy vehicles reached 2.615 million vehicles, doubling year - on - year [8]. - In 2025, China exported 119.019 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%, and imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, China imported 6.059 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,341 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average price was 3,308 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,970 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,110 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 821 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Ocean freight: Australia was 7.56 yuan, and Brazil was 20.83 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.19 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,162 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 764,719 contracts, a decrease of 73,160 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,691,461 contracts, an increase of 3,518 contracts [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,306 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%. The trading volume was 309,018 contracts, a decrease of 95,043 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,448,875 contracts, an increase of 8,625 contracts [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 821.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 238,116 contracts, a decrease of 73,505 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 662,688 contracts, an increase of 9,381 contracts [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventories: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [16]. - Iron ore inventories: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (inventory and its monthly change, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [24]. - Steel mill production: Included charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [31]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. Building steel mills are continuously resuming production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and has room for further increase. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. High - frequency transactions have rebounded due to holiday factors, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Plate steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and is at a relatively high level, and the high inventory level has not alleviated the supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are at a low level. The relatively positive factor is that the production of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, providing support for hot - rolled coil demand, but industrial contradictions are accumulating, and export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is operating weakly, and inventories are continuously rising. Steel mills are starting to resume production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills increased month - on - month, but the overall increase was not large. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the off - season steel market can hardly accommodate a large - scale increase in production, so the room for improvement in iron ore demand is limited and the positive effect is weak. Meanwhile, port arrivals are continuously increasing, and the shipments of miners are weakly stable, both at relatively high levels. Overseas iron ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply is also rebounding, so iron ore supply remains at a relatively high level. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the volume and open interest contracted. The demand for rebar has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, the inventory reduction pressure is high, and the supply remains low. With cost support, the steel price is expected to continue the oscillatory bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.16%, the volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The high - supply pressure persists, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil is weak. With cost support, the price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.19%, the volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the industry concerns remain, the demand downward pressure is emerging, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening, and the high - valued iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to September 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; the new order volume was 66.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%; and the order - holding volume as of the end of September was 242.24 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. China's three major shipbuilding indicators maintained global leadership [6]. - Starting from 00:00 on October 18, 2025, Sichuan Province will suspend the implementation of the 2025 automobile scrapping and replacement subsidy policies. The follow - up adjustment policies will be announced in a timely manner after being determined [7]. - On October 16, 2025, Australia launched the first anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset review investigations on precision steel pipes from China and South Korea at the request of domestic enterprises [8]. 2. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,170 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,110 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price was 3,215 yuan, up 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,190 yuan, unchanged; and the national average price was 3,331 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 777 yuan, unchanged; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 807 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.84 yuan, up 0.23 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.43 yuan, down 0.25 yuan; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 105.95 yuan, down 0.25 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,037 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 854,671 lots, a decrease of 181,696 lots; the open interest was 2,004,317 lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,204 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.16%. The trading volume was 487,804 lots, a decrease of 153,898 lots; the open interest was 1,496,079 lots, an increase of 16,084 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 771.0 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 271,218 lots, a decrease of 127,333 lots; the open interest was 545,426 lots, an increase of 9,848 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel mill inventory), and steel mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [15][20][30]. 5.后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output has decreased, and the supply is in a continuous contraction state but the decline is slowing. The demand has recovered after the festival, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is low, and the demand weakness remains. With cost support, the steel price is expected to continue the oscillatory bottom - seeking trend [41]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The inventory is increasing, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is questionable. With cost support, the price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [41]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The steel mill production is weakly stable, the terminal consumption of iron ore is declining, the supply is increasing, and the high - valued iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened and declined by 1.82% daily, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. The demand for rebar weakened as expected, while the supply remained relatively stable. The off - season fundamentals continued to deteriorate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. However, the recent significant increase in costs limited the downside space. Under the dominance of bearish sentiment, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined by 1.18% daily, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Thanks to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has improved, and the inventory increase has narrowed. However, the sustainability of demand improvement is questionable, and the supply is expected to pick up. The fundamentals are difficult to achieve a substantial improvement. The relatively positive factor is that the cost has increased significantly, limiting the downside space. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price is expected to continue the oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened and declined by 2.94% daily, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. At present, the fundamentals of iron ore are running smoothly under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel mills' profitability is good, with acceptable demand resilience, providing strong support for the ore price. The relatively negative factor is that the valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend will maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to July 2025, the national railway completed a fixed - asset investment of 433 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In July, the national railway completed a passenger volume of 455 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the passenger turnover was 177.069 billion person - kilometers, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The freight volume was 452 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the freight turnover was 304.217 billion ton - kilometers, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [6]. - The global container shipping volume is expected to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [7]. - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290 yuan, 3,320 yuan, and 3,402 yuan respectively, with price drops of 40 yuan, 30 yuan, and 18 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,450 yuan, 3,430 yuan, and 3,502 yuan respectively, with price drops of 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,080 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,150 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 160 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,140 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 771 yuan, a drop of 17 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.10 yuan, a drop of 0.28 yuan; from Brazil was 24.86 yuan, an increase of 0.11 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 102.79 yuan, a drop of 0.47 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.30 yuan, a drop of 0.70 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,189 yuan, a decline of 1.82%, with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots, an increase of 47,285 lots, and a position of 1,636,544 lots, a decrease of 16,049 lots [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,432 yuan, a decline of 1.18%, with a trading volume of 551,741 lots, an increase of 83,037 lots, and a position of 1,291,831 lots, a decrease of 62,005 lots [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 775.0 yuan, a decline of 2.94%, with a trading volume of 331,007 lots, an increase of 133,769 lots, and a position of 451,957 lots, a decrease of 462 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace start - up rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace start - up rate, etc.) [13][18][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.73 tons, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, and the supply pressure is still likely to increase. The demand has weakened, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons. The steel price is under pressure, but the cost increase limits the downside space. It is expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output increased by 0.70 tons, and the supply is expected to pick up. The demand has improved, but the sustainability is questionable. The price is expected to continue the oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [38]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has declined, but the steel mills' profitability is good, providing support for the ore price. The supply is weak. The short - term trend will maintain high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.63%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened. Although production has decreased, demand has weakened more significantly due to holiday factors, leading to inventory increases. Rebar prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate weakly to find the bottom [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in an oscillating manner, with a daily decline of 1.34%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply of hot - rolled coil remains high with large pressure, and demand has started to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.57%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Although steel mills' production is stable and ore demand is high, there are concerns about the peak of demand, and the supply has returned to a high level. Ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%. In April, the total value of imports and exports was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [6]. - In April 2025, 7408 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 3.213894 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Hubei, Anhui, and Heilongjiang, with total investments of 1.1257 trillion yuan, 446.783 billion yuan, and 374.669 billion yuan respectively [7]. - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; from January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to April, the cumulative steel imports were 2.072 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In April, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%; from January to April, the cumulative imports were 388.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are shown in the black - metal spot quotation table, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,307 yuan, a decrease of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,310 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. For instance, the closing price of rebar was 3,022 yuan, a decrease of 1.63%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3,157 yuan, a decrease of 1.34%; the closing price of iron ore was 696.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.57% [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: It includes the weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, as well as the total inventories (including steel mills and social inventories) [14][16][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It shows the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrates, etc., along with their seasonal changes and环比 changes [19][21][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: It involves the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [28][30][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and inventory has increased. Although production has decreased, demand has weakened more significantly due to holiday factors and will continue to weaken seasonally. Rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly to find the bottom [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed, and inventory has increased again. Supply remains high, while demand has started to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Although demand is relatively good, there are concerns about the peak of demand, and supply remains high. Ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [39].