Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the rise in gold prices will slow down next year due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will support upward momentum, with gold prices expected to reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The rise in gold prices is expected to slow down as central banks and ETFs reduce their purchases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include anticipated interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong retail demand from China [1] - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Silver Market - This year is expected to be a peak period for silver shortages, with silver price trends likely lagging behind gold next year [1] - Investment demand is anticipated to continue driving silver prices upward [1] Group 3: Other Precious Metals - Platinum prices are expected to be $1,775 per ounce next year [1] - Palladium prices are projected to be $1,325 per ounce next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a rapid increase on their first trading day, reaching a peak of 457.15 yuan, with a closing price of 432.85 yuan, marking a 6.88% rise [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Guosen Futures anticipates that domestic platinum and palladium futures will likely show a trend of oscillating upward [1] - Hongyuan Futures suggests that the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December may lead to a strong oscillation in platinum prices [1] - China International Futures projects a steady increase in platinum prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side challenges include high mining costs, unstable electricity supply, and aging production equipment, which disrupt platinum production, while the recovery of platinum production is slow [1] - On the demand side, stricter emissions standards are expected to increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, alongside optimistic demand in hydrogen production, fiberglass, and jewelry investment sectors [1] - By 2025-2026, global platinum supply and demand are expected to tighten, influenced by the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - China International Futures indicates a long-term price divergence between platinum and palladium, with platinum expected to strengthen while palladium faces pressure [2] - A projected 22-ton shortage in platinum by 2025, coupled with supportive demand from the automotive sector and jewelry, is expected to bolster platinum prices [2] - Palladium's reliance on gasoline vehicle catalysts is anticipated to be negatively impacted by the penetration of electric vehicles, leading to a surplus by 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of palladium is expected to be influenced by various factors including supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry trends as the market anticipates its trajectory into 2025 [1][10]. Supply and Demand Status - Palladium is primarily consumed in the automotive industry for catalytic converters, with demand increasing due to stricter emission standards globally, particularly in Europe, North America, and China [1]. - The supply of palladium is concentrated in Russia and South Africa, facing challenges such as limited reserves, mining difficulties, and geopolitical factors affecting production and exports [3][9]. Price Trends - The palladium market has experienced significant price fluctuations, reaching a peak of $3,002 per ounce in February 2022 due to supply shortages and strong demand, but subsequently declining to $953.50 per ounce by January 15, 2025 [4]. Automotive Industry Transformation - The automotive sector is undergoing a transformation with declining demand for traditional gasoline vehicles and a rise in new energy vehicles (NEVs), impacting palladium usage in catalytic converters [6]. - Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which require palladium-based catalysts, are expected to drive future demand, with projections of 100,000 units sold globally by 2025 [6]. Macroeconomic Factors - Economic growth and inflation expectations significantly influence palladium prices, with strong economic conditions boosting demand while recessions can lead to decreased consumption [7][8]. - Inflation can lead investors to favor palladium as a hedge, potentially increasing its price [8]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia's palladium production and export policies, pose risks to supply stability, which can lead to price volatility [9]. Price Forecasts for 2025 - Market predictions for palladium prices in 2025 vary, with some analysts expecting an average price around $1,075 to $1,080 per ounce, while others foresee a decline to approximately $930 per ounce due to weakening automotive demand [10][11].