澳新银行：如果铂金价格未能突破1400美元/盎司，可能回落至1250美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Platinum has gained significant attention, with a notable increase in demand and interest compared to the previous year, as evidenced by the activities during the Shanghai Platinum Week [2] - As of July 11, 2023, NYMEX platinum futures were priced at $1432.8 per ounce, reflecting a 51% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 322.54 yuan per gram for platinum, marking a 45% rise from the start of the year [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a supply deficit of 966,000 ounces for the platinum market in 2023, which is expected to persist until 2029 [4] - Current mining supply is at a historical low due to previous price declines, leading to reduced capital expenditures by miners [4] - Recycling of platinum, particularly from used catalytic converters, is anticipated to increase significantly, with projections of 72 tons of platinum group metal recovery in China by 2028, an 84% increase from 2024 [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Demand for platinum jewelry has surged, contributing to the price increase, with significant growth in imports noted in China [6][7] - The share of platinum investment demand in China has risen dramatically, from 11% in 2019 to 64% currently, with a notable increase in demand for platinum bars and coins [7] - Companies are shifting focus from gold to platinum due to lower acquisition costs and growing consumer interest in platinum jewelry [6][7] Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Experts suggest that while platinum prices may continue to rise, there are uncertainties due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies [8][10] - Short-term price corrections are anticipated, with projections indicating that platinum prices may fluctuate between $1200 and $1500 per ounce [10] - The potential for price support exists due to safe-haven demand, but the market remains cautious about the sustainability of current price levels [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum has emerged as a significant investment opportunity in 2025, with prices rising over 40% in the first half of the year, driven by increased demand from China and supply constraints from South Africa [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Platinum Prices - The surge in platinum prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a significant increase in imports from China and a 24% year-on-year decline in South African production in April [4][5]. - In June, platinum prices soared by 28%, marking the strongest monthly performance since 1986, reaching an 11-year high of $1432.6 per ounce [3][4]. - The World Platinum Investment Council reported a 26% increase in China's platinum jewelry processing in Q1, further supporting demand [5][6]. Group 2: Potential Challenges Ahead - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of platinum's price increase, citing expected slowdowns in Chinese imports and a recovery in South African production [3][8]. - Metals Focus predicts a supply shortage of 52,900 ounces in the global platinum market this year, but inventory levels are expected to remain high at 9.2 million ounces, equivalent to 14 months of demand [8]. - The recent spike in platinum prices may dampen demand, with expectations of a decline in Chinese imports following a strong performance in the previous months [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector, a major consumer of platinum for catalytic converters, faces challenges due to the rise of electric vehicles and reduced production forecasts, which could weaken platinum demand [11]. - Nornickel, the largest palladium producer, indicated that further increases in platinum prices could lead to a shift towards palladium as a substitute when the price difference exceeds 30% [11][12]. - Despite cautious outlooks from analysts, there is no expectation of a significant price correction, with many believing that platinum prices will stabilize above previous levels, supporting miner profitability [13].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices surged to a four-year high of $1280 per ounce, driven primarily by speculative trading and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs warns that the current speculative frenzy in platinum is unlikely to be sustainable, predicting a price correction once speculative interest wanes [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported a projected supply deficit of approximately 1 million ounces (about 31 tons) for the year, equating to nearly 20% of annual mineral production [1] Group 2: Chinese Market Sensitivity - The Chinese market accounts for about 60% of global new platinum production, with buyers exhibiting high price sensitivity—buying heavily at low prices and withdrawing quickly at high prices [3] - Nearly 50% of China's platinum imports are driven by price-sensitive jewelry and investment demand, which surged following a price drop in April [3] - The recent price rebound since mid-May has suppressed Chinese jewelry and investment demand, confirming the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Demand - The demand for platinum is facing structural decline due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China, which is reducing the long-term need for platinum in automotive catalysts [4] - The peak scale of gasoline vehicles in China is expected to exert structural pressure on platinum demand, while Western markets are not expected to provide significant positive balance for platinum prices [4] Group 4: Global Supply Outlook - Global platinum supply is expected to remain stable or grow moderately unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, as South Africa accounts for about 70% of global platinum production [5] - South African platinum group metal producers project a moderate supply increase of 12% by 2025, although operational disruptions remain a significant risk [6] - Since March 2024, load shedding in South Africa has nearly ceased, with low risks of reoccurring disruptive power outages, although labor strikes still pose a threat to production [6]