市场预期乐观，矿价高位运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格高位宽幅震荡，价格阶段性高位市场分歧有所加大。本轮矿价自底部最大上涨15%左右，市场预期较快好转。 基本面方面，供应端主流矿山发运进入季节性淡季，整体难以看到显著增量；上周非主流矿发运环比大幅回升，与去年同期相比7月份 有望延续6月份高发运水平，但整体对供应压力影响不大。需求端，6月份统计局数据地产仍处于底部，基建投资环比走弱，建筑用钢 需求维持低位运行；6月份制造业投资当月同比5.1%，环比出现较快回落，可能受设备更新资金前期使用比例较高有关，但在固定资 产投资中仍是主要支撑因素。钢联本周铁水产量处于高位运行，虽整体制造业用钢需求增速放缓，但预计韧性仍会得到延续。 整体来看，本轮矿价自底部上涨受多方面因素影响，主要是宏观预期回暖，估值修复以及供给侧政策扰动预期，当前估值已经 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the steel market is affected by seasonal factors, with steel demand facing seasonal weakening pressure. The market is also concerned about future export demand. For steel, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term steel mill production cuts and the impact of the Sino - US trade war on the market. For iron ore, the short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand on hot metal needs to be monitored [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **[Ribbed Bars]** - **Futures**: The 10 - contract of ribbed bars continued its rebound trend driven by the reduction of short - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3147 yuan/ton, up 14.0 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Spot**: The prices of ribbed bars in mainstream regions generally increased significantly, and overall transactions improved slightly. The national average price of ribbed bars increased by 24 yuan to 3319 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 65.08%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29%. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 7.6 tons to 209.06 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Short - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3147 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan. The profit of electric furnace ribbed bars was a loss of 227 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 13 yuan in the loss [5]. - **Fundamentals - Long - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2729 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan. The profit of blast furnace ribbed bars was 191 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 43 yuan. The profit of long - process steel mills shrank significantly [5]. - **Demand**: The building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of ribbed bars continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.33 tons to 9.50 tons, and the apparent demand for ribbed bars decreased by 15.33 tons to 206.17 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, while the inventory of ribbed bars began to increase slightly. As of Friday, the total inventory of ribbed bars increased by 2.89 tons to 543.26 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for ribbed bars in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the 10 - contract of ribbed bars, and the basis was expected to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: In the short term, ribbed bar production will continue to decline slightly, demand will decline significantly, and inventory will increase slightly. Technically, the weekly - level trend is likely to be weak, while the daily - level trend is stabilizing and rebounding [9]. **[Iron Ore]** - **Futures**: The 09 - contract of iron ore continued its rebound trend driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.75% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to increase slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [7]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 14th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2558.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 93.8 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2662.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178.2 tons [12]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The current average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 322.74 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.23 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: As of the 18th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports began to increase slightly, reaching 13785.21 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8822.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 157.48 tons [12]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newmann powder at Qingdao Port was the optimal delivery product at 805 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan over the 10 - contract of iron ore, and the basis was expected to widen [12]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: After the end of the quarterly volume rush, the iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline, while the arrival volume will gradually increase. The short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the impact of weakening terminal demand needs to be monitored [12].

期货热点追踪 澳洲矿商铁矿产量骤降10%，节前补货需求持续存在，铁矿价格能否突破当前区间？ 相关链接 ...