供应：三季度全球发运环比上升，到港量上升。三季度全球发运周均值3194万吨，环比二季度增长14万 吨。45港口到港量周均值2461万吨，环比二季度增长59万吨。全国8月度进口量10522.5万吨，月环比 +60.2万吨。 库存：港口库存去库，日均疏港量上升，钢厂进口矿库存环比增加。三季度45港库存均值13806万吨， 环比下降318万吨；45港日均疏港量323万吨，环比二季度增长4万吨；钢厂进口矿库存9063万吨，环比 二季度增长96万吨。 行情展望：三季度铁矿期货总体保持震荡偏强走势。供给端，铁矿石全球发运量环比二季度小幅提升， 45港到港量上升，总供应并未出现富余情况，考虑到年底发运冲量，发运和到港有望进一步提升。需求 端，钢厂利润率三季度小幅回升，铁水产量持续高位，对于后期钢厂利润将带来一定压制，但对于铁矿 价格形成支撑。从五大材数据可以看到三季度钢材产量高位波动，库存同比偏低水平，但在9月份开始 超过去年同期，说明旺季需求仍显不足，表需处于近五年来偏低水平，近期钢价回落也反映出旺季不旺 的特点。库存方面，港口库存去库，疏港量环比上升，钢厂权益矿库存环比增加。展望后市，由于钢厂 盈利面仍然偏高，四季度铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The iron ore price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and the market is optimistic. It is expected that iron ore prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Price Trend and Market Expectations**: Iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly [3]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The shipments of mainstream mines have entered the seasonal off - season, with no significant increase expected. Last week, the shipments of non - mainstream mines rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis. In July, it is expected to continue the high - shipment level of June, but the overall impact on supply pressure is not significant [3]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, which may be related to the high proportion of pre - used equipment renewal funds. However, it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, its resilience is expected to continue [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore Shipment - **Global Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has entered the seasonal off - season. This week, the global shipment volume was 31.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% (2 million tons) [7][9]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The total shipment of Australia and Brazil this week was 24.79 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons. The shipment of Australian mines decreased on a week - on - week basis, while that of Brazilian mines increased. Since 2025, the weekly average shipment of Australian mines has been 17.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% (6.4 million tons), and that of Brazilian mines has been 7.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% (7.8 million tons) [7][9]. - **Non - Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The non - Australia and Brazil shipment this week was 6.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.41 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.03 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australia and Brazil mines has been 5.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% (0.6 million tons) [7][12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory of imported iron ore was basically flat on a week - on - week basis, with a slight increase in the number of ships waiting at ports. The total inventory of iron ore in steel mills increased relatively quickly on a week - on - week basis, resulting in a 1.76 - million - ton increase in the total inventory of imported iron ore in China on a week - on - week basis. Since the beginning of the year, the inventory of imported iron ore ports in China has decreased by more than 10 million tons [21][23]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Pressure**: With the high - level demand for steel in the manufacturing industry and the high - level operation of hot metal production year - on - year, although the demand for steel in China will enter the seasonal off - season in the third quarter and decline on a month - on - month basis, it is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. The current total inventory of imported iron ore is at a moderately high level, and the inventory pressure is not significant [23]. 3.2.3 Terminal Demand - **Overall Demand Indicators**: Since 2025, China's hot metal production has increased by 3.1% (14.9 million tons) year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 1.4% (8.3 million tons) year - on - year (after correction). The apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 3.9% (9.5 million tons) year - on - year, while the apparent demand for non - building materials has increased by 5.7% (15.3 million tons) year - on - year. China's crude steel consumption has increased by 1.2% (6 million tons) year - on - year (excluding exports) [28]. - **Industry - Specific Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, but it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, but its resilience is expected to continue [28]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price and Profit - **Port Price**: The report provides price data of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, Qingdao Port lump ore price, etc., as well as the spread between high - and low - grade powder ores and the relationship with steel mill profits [35]. - **Port Profit**: It shows the import profits of PB powder, lump ore, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, etc. [37]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit - **East China Steel Mill Profit**: The profits of mainstream steel mills in East China have rebounded from the bottom, including cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, iron - making costs, electric - furnace costs, etc. [39]. 3.3.3 Internal and External Market Dollar Spread - **Dollar Spread Indicators**: It includes the spread between SGX main contract and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the iron ore basis rate [42]. 3.3.4 Scrap Steel Consumption and Arrival - **Scrap Steel Data**: This week, the total daily consumption of 255 scrap steel was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - week increase of 62,000 tons. The data of arrival, consumption, and inventory of scrap steel in different steel mills are also provided [44]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Basis and Spread - **Basis and Spread Characteristics**: Iron ore shows a weak basis for the main contract and a weak backwardation for the far - month contract, and relevant basis and spread data are provided [45][46]. 3.3.6 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production, Demand, and Inventory - **Production and Demand Data**: It includes domestic iron concentrate production, production in North China, production and inventory of 363 mines, and apparent demand for imported iron ore and domestic iron ore [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the steel market is affected by seasonal factors, with steel demand facing seasonal weakening pressure. The market is also concerned about future export demand. For steel, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term steel mill production cuts and the impact of the Sino - US trade war on the market. For iron ore, the short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand on hot metal needs to be monitored [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **[Ribbed Bars]** - **Futures**: The 10 - contract of ribbed bars continued its rebound trend driven by the reduction of short - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3147 yuan/ton, up 14.0 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Spot**: The prices of ribbed bars in mainstream regions generally increased significantly, and overall transactions improved slightly. The national average price of ribbed bars increased by 24 yuan to 3319 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 65.08%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29%. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 7.6 tons to 209.06 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Short - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3147 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan. The profit of electric furnace ribbed bars was a loss of 227 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 13 yuan in the loss [5]. - **Fundamentals - Long - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2729 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan. The profit of blast furnace ribbed bars was 191 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 43 yuan. The profit of long - process steel mills shrank significantly [5]. - **Demand**: The building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of ribbed bars continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.33 tons to 9.50 tons, and the apparent demand for ribbed bars decreased by 15.33 tons to 206.17 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, while the inventory of ribbed bars began to increase slightly. As of Friday, the total inventory of ribbed bars increased by 2.89 tons to 543.26 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for ribbed bars in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the 10 - contract of ribbed bars, and the basis was expected to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: In the short term, ribbed bar production will continue to decline slightly, demand will decline significantly, and inventory will increase slightly. Technically, the weekly - level trend is likely to be weak, while the daily - level trend is stabilizing and rebounding [9]. **[Iron Ore]** - **Futures**: The 09 - contract of iron ore continued its rebound trend driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.75% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to increase slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [7]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 14th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2558.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 93.8 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2662.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178.2 tons [12]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The current average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 322.74 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.23 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: As of the 18th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports began to increase slightly, reaching 13785.21 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8822.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 157.48 tons [12]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newmann powder at Qingdao Port was the optimal delivery product at 805 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan over the 10 - contract of iron ore, and the basis was expected to widen [12]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: After the end of the quarterly volume rush, the iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline, while the arrival volume will gradually increase. The short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the impact of weakening terminal demand needs to be monitored [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom, and market sentiment declined at the phased bottom. The core factors driving market ups and downs in the short term are weak. Overall, the current terminal steel demand has entered a seasonal off - peak season on a month - on - month basis, and funds may trade the weak reality of the terminal. However, the downward space for iron ore prices at the current valuation bottom is small, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy suggests a sideways movement for single - side trading, a long 9/1 inter - period spread for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are at the bottom and fluctuating, with weak short - term driving factors. Terminal steel demand is in a seasonal off - peak, but the downward space for iron ore prices is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: sideways movement; Arbitrage: mainly long 9/1 inter - period spread; Options: wait - and - see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Mainstream mines entered the shipping peak, and domestic arrivals increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. However, the total shipments of mainstream mines from the beginning of the year still contributed to a reduction, and the replenishment volume since the second quarter was limited. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/3.8 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.25 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.1%/4.4 million tons, and Brazil's were 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%/5.4 million tons [6][8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments increased rapidly on a week - on - week basis. The current shipping level is close to that of the same period last year, but it has little impact on the overall supply. From a monthly perspective, the year - on - year reduction in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse in the short term. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4%/4.8 million tons [11][12]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025 to date, domestic hot metal production increased by 3.8%/13.8 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2%/8.9 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand decreased by 3.1%/6 million tons year - on - year, while non - building material demand increased by 5.3%/10.5 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) increased by 1.5%/5.1 million tons year - on - year. Although the overall growth rate of manufacturing steel demand has slowed down, it is expected to maintain its resilience [24][27]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased slightly year - on - year [3]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the congestion decreased rapidly, and the total inventory of steel mills' iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, but the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. The current total iron element inventory is at a relatively low level in the past five years, which provides certain support for iron ore price valuation [14][16][22]. Price and Spread - **Price**: The prices of imported iron ore at ports, including the 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, and Qingdao Port Carajás fines price, are presented in the report [33][34]. - **Profit**: The import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, etc., are shown, and the profits of East China's mainstream steel mills are running at a low level [35][36][37]. - **Spread**: The differences between domestic and foreign US dollar prices, the basis rate of iron ore, and the spreads between different contracts are analyzed. The basis of the iron ore main contract is expected to converge, and the 9/1 inter - period spread is expected to widen [39][40][44]. Scrap Steel - This week, the total daily consumption of 255 steel mills' scrap steel was 542,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. The daily consumption of 89 short - process steel mills was 173,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week. The total inventory of 147 steel mills' scrap steel was 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from last week [42]. Domestic Iron Concentrate - The production, demand, and inventory data of domestic iron concentrate, including the production of domestic iron concentrate, North China iron concentrate, and the inventory of 363 mines' iron concentrate, are provided [46][47].

Group 1 - Australian mining companies have experienced a significant decline in iron ore production, dropping by 10% [1] - There is a persistent demand for replenishment ahead of the holiday season, indicating ongoing market activity [1] - The question remains whether iron ore prices can break through the current trading range amidst these supply and demand dynamics [1]