1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its volatile and upward - trending pattern. The recent strength of iron ore is mainly supported by supply contraction, as overseas ore shipments have declined due to geopolitical conflicts and heavy rainfall, and rising oil prices have increased transportation costs, which in turn support the spot price. After the Two Sessions, steel mills will gradually resume production, iron - water output will rise, and port inventories are expected to decrease in the second quarter [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 1.75% with a total trading volume of 5,540,334 lots and a total open interest of 2,530,631 lots. - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3295 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 2.01% with a total trading volume of 2,241,851 lots and a total open interest of 1,243,723 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 795.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan or 3.04% with a total trading volume of 1,140,049 lots and a total open interest of 480,735 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1178.0 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan or 4.90% with a total trading volume of 5,796,535 lots and a total open interest of 582,187 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1737.5 yuan/ton, up 42.0 yuan or 2.48% with a total trading volume of 139,141 lots and a total open interest of 41,920 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and trended upward. After the Two Sessions, the policy met expectations, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production provided support. Coupled with the increase in shipping prices due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, multiple factors jointly pushed up the ore price. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 797 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special powder was 678 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 119 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, last week, the iron - water output declined. During the Two Sessions, production restrictions on northern steel mills affected the demand for iron ore, but production will resume this week. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 78.34%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.24 percentage points year - on - year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 3.65 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 12.12 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average iron - water output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 9.39 tons year - on - year [1][4]. - On the supply side, last week, overseas shipments decreased, and arrivals increased month - on - month. Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, many iron - ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, and the overall supply is stable. The total global iron - ore shipments last week were 28.978 million tons, a decrease of 4.429 million tons week - on - week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 23.421 million tons, a decrease of 3.485 million tons week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 179.4732 million tons, an increase of 0.5249 million tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3233 million tons, an increase of 0.0535 million tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, many iron - ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, with four ship - rerouting incidents reported. - According to customs data, in the first two months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%. - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. Cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. Cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. Cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. - On March 11, local time, US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India, and Japan. - Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Effi Devlin said that Israel's military operations against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 12th afternoon, there was a market rumor that BHP Newman powder was added to the spot restriction list with the last pick - up date on March 20th. The authenticity of this rumor needs to be rationally evaluated [4][5] - If the rumor is true, in the short - term, the supply of high - grade iron ore will shrink, pushing up raw material costs. With the steel mills' resumption of production and restocking, the molten iron output is likely to rise above 2.3 million tons, and iron ore prices may still rise. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will ease as alternative mines (from Brazil and Guinea) arrive at ports as scheduled, and the market trend will depend on terminal demand and molten iron output [7] - If the rumor is true, in terms of price spreads, the price of Newman powder is likely to rise in the short - term due to supply contraction and increased demand from steel mills'复产. Substitute products like Carajas fines, Brazilian high - grade ore, and Guinean ore will strengthen, while BHP's medium - and low - grade ores will be further marginalized, causing the price spread between varieties to widen. For the inter - period spread, the March 20th deadline will intensify short - term hoarding, and the near - month contracts and spot prices may be stronger than the far - month ones [7] - Since September 2025, Sinomine Resource Group has successively restricted the procurement of BHP's Jimblebar fines and Kingfisher fines. In early March 2026, international media reported an expansion of restrictions to core varieties such as Newman powder and Mac fines, banning new shipments from April onwards. Even if the rumor is true, the market has already priced it in to some extent [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Rumor Content** - On March 12th afternoon, the market rumor stated that BHP Newman powder was added to the spot restriction list, with the last pick - up date on March 20th [4] - **Rumor Authenticity** - The rumor has not been officially confirmed, and its authenticity needs to be rationally evaluated [5] - **Impact if the Rumor is True** - **Market Impact** - Short - term: Supply contraction of high - grade ore will push up raw material costs. With steel mills' resumption of production and restocking, molten iron output is likely to exceed 2.3 million tons, and iron ore prices may rise [7] - Medium - term: Supply pressure will ease as alternative mines arrive at ports, and the market trend will depend on terminal demand and molten iron output [7] - **Price Spread Impact** - **Variety Spread**: Newman powder's price is likely to rise in the short - term. Substitute products will strengthen, and BHP's medium - and low - grade ores will be marginalized, widening the variety spread [7] - **Inter - period Spread**: The March 20th deadline will intensify short - term hoarding, and near - month contracts and spot prices may be stronger than far - month ones [7] - **Real Information** - Since September 2025, Sinomine Resource Group has restricted the procurement of BHP's Jimblebar fines and Kingfisher fines. In early March 2026, restrictions were expanded to core varieties, and the market has already priced in the potential impact [7]

Spot Market - Mainstream iron ore spot prices: Rizhao Port PB powder +10 to 799 RMB/wet ton, Brazilian blend +10 to 824 RMB/wet ton, and lump ore +10 to 890 RMB/wet ton [1] Futures Market - As of January 29, the main iron ore futures contract increased by 1.78% (+14) to close at 798.5 RMB/ton [2] Demand - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons month-on-month; blast furnace operating rate is 79.00%, an increase of 0.32%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; steel mill profit margin is 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [3] Supply - Global shipments this period slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with a total increase of 485,000 tons to 29.783 million tons; Brazil's total iron ore shipments reached 23.943 million tons, an increase of 1.476 million tons month-on-month; shipments from Brazil to China were 14.876 million tons, an increase of 978,000 tons [4] Inventory - As of January 29, inventory at 45 ports is 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 2.5573 million tons month-on-month; daily average port clearance volume slightly decreased, with high arrival volumes leading to continued inventory accumulation; steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 5.7977 million tons to 99.6859 million tons [5] Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract showed strong fluctuations, with a general rise in commodity prices and improved market sentiment; however, supply remains high while demand shows signs of weakness, particularly in steel exports; inventory levels at ports continue to rise, which may exert downward pressure on iron ore prices, with expectations of prices around 800 RMB being a potential shorting point [6]

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Treat Iron Ore Prices at High Levels with a Bearish Outlook Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and capital, with the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals also having a certain impact on iron ore prices. The supply side remains loose, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year, with mid - term demand likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to continue to decline, and the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to persist. Overall, the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. The current fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly, and there is limited room for further price increases. In the mid - term, it is advisable to take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices [3]. - The trading strategy suggests taking a bearish stance with light positions for single - sided trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: The price of iron ore has been strong this week, with the fundamentals remaining largely unchanged. Macro - sentiment and capital are the main drivers, and the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals has also influenced the iron ore futures price. The supply side is in a loose situation, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. In the mid - term, domestic demand is likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to contribute to a continuous decline, and the weakening of domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to last. Although the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. There is limited room for further price increases, and a bearish stance with light positions at high prices is recommended in the mid - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply - side Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level. In 2025, the total output of the four major mines was 1.15 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% (23 million tons), with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipment volume was 1.13 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% (12 million tons), and most of the shipment decline was contributed by Rio Tinto. In 2026, the global shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase steadily by about 15 million tons. This week, global shipments were 36.77 million tons, an increase of 2.13 million tons from last week and 1.98 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore global shipments have been at a high level year - on - year. From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is still in the production ramp - up stage in 2026 [8][9]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory**: The current total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic ports is at the highest level in the past six years, and the fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. In 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore in China increased slightly. In the first half of the year, due to supply - side disturbances, the inventory decreased by over 10 million tons, but in the second half of the year, with the recovery of the supply side and the relatively rapid weakening of terminal demand, the inventory continued to increase, with the maximum inventory accumulation approaching 20 million tons and the annual inventory accumulation being about 10 million tons. In the first half of 2026, the loose supply pattern of global iron ore is expected to continue [10][11]. Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Steel Demand**: In 2026, there is no expectation of an increase in domestic steel demand, and it is expected to continue the pattern of 2024 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, overseas iron element consumption increased continuously year - on - year, with an average annual increase of over 30 million tons. The terminal steel demand structure has changed significantly in the past three years, with iron element exports (steel + billets + indirect) contributing the largest increment and volatility in terminal steel demand. However, the impact of overseas steel demand on domestic iron ore prices is transmitted relatively slowly [12][13]. Price and Spread Analysis - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: Various price indices and spreads of imported iron ore at ports are presented, including the Platts iron ore price index, the price difference between different iron ore products at Qingdao Port, and the relationship between steel mill cash profits and the price difference of high, medium, and low - grade iron ore powders [17][18]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: The import profits of different types of iron ore, such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, and others, are shown [19][20]. - **Profit of East China Mainstream Steel Mills**: The cash profits of East China's threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cost data of iron water, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, and threaded steel in East China, are provided [21][22]. - **Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread**: The spreads between SGX (Singapore Exchange) and DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) iron ore contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between iron water and scrap steel in East China are analyzed [23][24]. - **Iron Ore Futures Basis and Inter - period Spread**: The basis of the optimal deliverable iron ore against different DCE contracts and the inter - period spreads are presented [25][26]. Shipment of Global Four Major Mines The global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN's iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports, are shown [27][28]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory The inventory data of different types of imported iron ore at ports, including powder ore, lump ore, pellet, non - trade ore, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore, are provided [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly reports, with common short - term rebounds and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals as credit data is expected to weaken in October, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market [2]. - International gold prices will mainly show a volatile consolidation trend, with silver following gold's fluctuations [2]. - The shipping index (European line) will be volatile in the short term [2]. - The supply of iron elements in the steel market is loose, and there are various trading strategies for different steel - related products [2]. - The prices of some chemical products are affected by supply - demand and cost factors, with limited rebound space or downward pressure [2]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, supply, and production, showing different trends [2]. - Special and new energy products have their own price trends and trading logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market冲高兑现预期, there is a slight callback, and the technology sector recovers. A - shares are in repricing adjustment, with short - term rebounds and limited downside risks. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market. It is recommended to go long on a single - side strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: International gold prices will oscillate between 3900 - 4030 dollars, and silver will fluctuate between 47 - 49 dollars [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures (European Line)**: It will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose. It is recommended to hold a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and to go short on the iron ore contract at high prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: After the shipping volume declines and the arrival volume increases, the port inventory rises, and the iron ore price drops after rising. It is recommended to go short at high prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the producing area is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The third - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has回调, and the downstream demand has briefly recovered. Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the pressure at 86500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has increased in both volume and price, but the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main operation range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as zinc oscillating at a high level between 22300 - 23000, tin maintaining a high - level oscillation, etc. [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectations are weak, and the cost - end support is limited, with limited rebound space [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options and consider a reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and trading suggestions, such as PVC being recommended to go short on rebounds [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The prices of some grains and oils are affected by factors such as trade negotiations and production. For example, the price of palm oil is weak, and it is recommended to close the long positions of some contracts [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig price is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own price trend and trading suggestions, such as sugar being recommended to trade short on rebounds [2]. Special and New Energy Products - **Glass**: There is support at the bottom due to the peak construction season and production line disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot market for short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. - **Rubber**: The negative factors have been gradually digested, and the rubber price has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are mainly oscillating, with specific price ranges [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading logic has changed recently, and it is in a weak adjustment [2].

Supply - In Q3, global shipments increased with an average weekly shipment of 31.94 million tons, a rise of 140,000 tons compared to Q2 [1] - The average weekly arrival at 45 ports was 24.61 million tons, up by 590,000 tons from Q2 [1] - August's national import volume reached 105.225 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 602,000 tons [1] Demand - Daily average pig iron production in Q3 was 2.4 million tons, down by 25,000 tons per day compared to Q2 [1] - The average blast furnace operating rate was 83.35%, a decrease of 0.46% from Q2 [1] - The average utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 89.99%, down by 0.95% from Q2 [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 62.24%, an increase of 4.50% from Q2 [1] Inventory - Port inventory decreased, with an increase in daily port clearance volume, while steel mills' imported ore inventory rose [1] - The average inventory at 45 ports in Q3 was 138.06 million tons, down by 3.18 million tons from Q2 [1] - The daily average port clearance volume was 3.23 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from Q2 [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory was 90.63 million tons, up by 960,000 tons from Q2 [1] Market Outlook - In Q3, iron ore futures maintained a generally strong and fluctuating trend, with a slight increase in global shipment volume and port arrivals [2] - Steel mill profit margins showed a slight recovery, but high pig iron production may pressure future profits, providing support for iron ore prices [2] - Inventory levels at ports decreased, while steel mills' rights to ore inventory increased [2] - The market is expected to experience a "first suppress then rise" trend in Q4, with short-term strategies suggesting selling at highs and long-term buying at lows, with a reference range of 750-850 [2][4] Strategy Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests selling at highs, while long-term strategy recommends buying at lows, with a reference range of 750-900 for iron ore [4] - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced but tight situation, with prices at yearly highs [2][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The iron ore price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and the market is optimistic. It is expected that iron ore prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Price Trend and Market Expectations**: Iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly [3]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The shipments of mainstream mines have entered the seasonal off - season, with no significant increase expected. Last week, the shipments of non - mainstream mines rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis. In July, it is expected to continue the high - shipment level of June, but the overall impact on supply pressure is not significant [3]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, which may be related to the high proportion of pre - used equipment renewal funds. However, it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, its resilience is expected to continue [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore Shipment - **Global Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has entered the seasonal off - season. This week, the global shipment volume was 31.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% (2 million tons) [7][9]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The total shipment of Australia and Brazil this week was 24.79 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons. The shipment of Australian mines decreased on a week - on - week basis, while that of Brazilian mines increased. Since 2025, the weekly average shipment of Australian mines has been 17.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% (6.4 million tons), and that of Brazilian mines has been 7.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% (7.8 million tons) [7][9]. - **Non - Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The non - Australia and Brazil shipment this week was 6.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.41 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.03 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australia and Brazil mines has been 5.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% (0.6 million tons) [7][12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory of imported iron ore was basically flat on a week - on - week basis, with a slight increase in the number of ships waiting at ports. The total inventory of iron ore in steel mills increased relatively quickly on a week - on - week basis, resulting in a 1.76 - million - ton increase in the total inventory of imported iron ore in China on a week - on - week basis. Since the beginning of the year, the inventory of imported iron ore ports in China has decreased by more than 10 million tons [21][23]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Pressure**: With the high - level demand for steel in the manufacturing industry and the high - level operation of hot metal production year - on - year, although the demand for steel in China will enter the seasonal off - season in the third quarter and decline on a month - on - month basis, it is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. The current total inventory of imported iron ore is at a moderately high level, and the inventory pressure is not significant [23]. 3.2.3 Terminal Demand - **Overall Demand Indicators**: Since 2025, China's hot metal production has increased by 3.1% (14.9 million tons) year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 1.4% (8.3 million tons) year - on - year (after correction). The apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 3.9% (9.5 million tons) year - on - year, while the apparent demand for non - building materials has increased by 5.7% (15.3 million tons) year - on - year. China's crude steel consumption has increased by 1.2% (6 million tons) year - on - year (excluding exports) [28]. - **Industry - Specific Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, but it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, but its resilience is expected to continue [28]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price and Profit - **Port Price**: The report provides price data of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, Qingdao Port lump ore price, etc., as well as the spread between high - and low - grade powder ores and the relationship with steel mill profits [35]. - **Port Profit**: It shows the import profits of PB powder, lump ore, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, etc. [37]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit - **East China Steel Mill Profit**: The profits of mainstream steel mills in East China have rebounded from the bottom, including cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, iron - making costs, electric - furnace costs, etc. [39]. 3.3.3 Internal and External Market Dollar Spread - **Dollar Spread Indicators**: It includes the spread between SGX main contract and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the iron ore basis rate [42]. 3.3.4 Scrap Steel Consumption and Arrival - **Scrap Steel Data**: This week, the total daily consumption of 255 scrap steel was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - week increase of 62,000 tons. The data of arrival, consumption, and inventory of scrap steel in different steel mills are also provided [44]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Basis and Spread - **Basis and Spread Characteristics**: Iron ore shows a weak basis for the main contract and a weak backwardation for the far - month contract, and relevant basis and spread data are provided [45][46]. 3.3.6 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production, Demand, and Inventory - **Production and Demand Data**: It includes domestic iron concentrate production, production in North China, production and inventory of 363 mines, and apparent demand for imported iron ore and domestic iron ore [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the steel market is affected by seasonal factors, with steel demand facing seasonal weakening pressure. The market is also concerned about future export demand. For steel, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term steel mill production cuts and the impact of the Sino - US trade war on the market. For iron ore, the short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand on hot metal needs to be monitored [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **[Ribbed Bars]** - **Futures**: The 10 - contract of ribbed bars continued its rebound trend driven by the reduction of short - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3147 yuan/ton, up 14.0 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Spot**: The prices of ribbed bars in mainstream regions generally increased significantly, and overall transactions improved slightly. The national average price of ribbed bars increased by 24 yuan to 3319 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 65.08%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29%. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 7.6 tons to 209.06 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Short - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3147 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan. The profit of electric furnace ribbed bars was a loss of 227 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 13 yuan in the loss [5]. - **Fundamentals - Long - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2729 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan. The profit of blast furnace ribbed bars was 191 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 43 yuan. The profit of long - process steel mills shrank significantly [5]. - **Demand**: The building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of ribbed bars continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.33 tons to 9.50 tons, and the apparent demand for ribbed bars decreased by 15.33 tons to 206.17 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, while the inventory of ribbed bars began to increase slightly. As of Friday, the total inventory of ribbed bars increased by 2.89 tons to 543.26 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for ribbed bars in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the 10 - contract of ribbed bars, and the basis was expected to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: In the short term, ribbed bar production will continue to decline slightly, demand will decline significantly, and inventory will increase slightly. Technically, the weekly - level trend is likely to be weak, while the daily - level trend is stabilizing and rebounding [9]. **[Iron Ore]** - **Futures**: The 09 - contract of iron ore continued its rebound trend driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.75% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to increase slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [7]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 14th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2558.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 93.8 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2662.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178.2 tons [12]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The current average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 322.74 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.23 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: As of the 18th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports began to increase slightly, reaching 13785.21 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8822.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 157.48 tons [12]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newmann powder at Qingdao Port was the optimal delivery product at 805 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan over the 10 - contract of iron ore, and the basis was expected to widen [12]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: After the end of the quarterly volume rush, the iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline, while the arrival volume will gradually increase. The short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the impact of weakening terminal demand needs to be monitored [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom, and market sentiment declined at the phased bottom. The core factors driving market ups and downs in the short term are weak. Overall, the current terminal steel demand has entered a seasonal off - peak season on a month - on - month basis, and funds may trade the weak reality of the terminal. However, the downward space for iron ore prices at the current valuation bottom is small, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy suggests a sideways movement for single - side trading, a long 9/1 inter - period spread for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are at the bottom and fluctuating, with weak short - term driving factors. Terminal steel demand is in a seasonal off - peak, but the downward space for iron ore prices is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: sideways movement; Arbitrage: mainly long 9/1 inter - period spread; Options: wait - and - see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Mainstream mines entered the shipping peak, and domestic arrivals increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. However, the total shipments of mainstream mines from the beginning of the year still contributed to a reduction, and the replenishment volume since the second quarter was limited. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/3.8 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.25 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.1%/4.4 million tons, and Brazil's were 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%/5.4 million tons [6][8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments increased rapidly on a week - on - week basis. The current shipping level is close to that of the same period last year, but it has little impact on the overall supply. From a monthly perspective, the year - on - year reduction in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse in the short term. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4%/4.8 million tons [11][12]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025 to date, domestic hot metal production increased by 3.8%/13.8 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2%/8.9 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand decreased by 3.1%/6 million tons year - on - year, while non - building material demand increased by 5.3%/10.5 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) increased by 1.5%/5.1 million tons year - on - year. Although the overall growth rate of manufacturing steel demand has slowed down, it is expected to maintain its resilience [24][27]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased slightly year - on - year [3]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the congestion decreased rapidly, and the total inventory of steel mills' iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, but the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. The current total iron element inventory is at a relatively low level in the past five years, which provides certain support for iron ore price valuation [14][16][22]. Price and Spread - **Price**: The prices of imported iron ore at ports, including the 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, and Qingdao Port Carajás fines price, are presented in the report [33][34]. - **Profit**: The import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, etc., are shown, and the profits of East China's mainstream steel mills are running at a low level [35][36][37]. - **Spread**: The differences between domestic and foreign US dollar prices, the basis rate of iron ore, and the spreads between different contracts are analyzed. The basis of the iron ore main contract is expected to converge, and the 9/1 inter - period spread is expected to widen [39][40][44]. Scrap Steel - This week, the total daily consumption of 255 steel mills' scrap steel was 542,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. The daily consumption of 89 short - process steel mills was 173,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week. The total inventory of 147 steel mills' scrap steel was 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from last week [42]. Domestic Iron Concentrate - The production, demand, and inventory data of domestic iron concentrate, including the production of domestic iron concentrate, North China iron concentrate, and the inventory of 363 mines' iron concentrate, are provided [46][47].

Group 1 - Australian mining companies have experienced a significant decline in iron ore production, dropping by 10% [1] - There is a persistent demand for replenishment ahead of the holiday season, indicating ongoing market activity [1] - The question remains whether iron ore prices can break through the current trading range amidst these supply and demand dynamics [1]