1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly reports, with common short - term rebounds and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals as credit data is expected to weaken in October, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market [2]. - International gold prices will mainly show a volatile consolidation trend, with silver following gold's fluctuations [2]. - The shipping index (European line) will be volatile in the short term [2]. - The supply of iron elements in the steel market is loose, and there are various trading strategies for different steel - related products [2]. - The prices of some chemical products are affected by supply - demand and cost factors, with limited rebound space or downward pressure [2]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, supply, and production, showing different trends [2]. - Special and new energy products have their own price trends and trading logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market冲高兑现预期, there is a slight callback, and the technology sector recovers. A - shares are in repricing adjustment, with short - term rebounds and limited downside risks. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market. It is recommended to go long on a single - side strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: International gold prices will oscillate between 3900 - 4030 dollars, and silver will fluctuate between 47 - 49 dollars [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures (European Line)**: It will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose. It is recommended to hold a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and to go short on the iron ore contract at high prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: After the shipping volume declines and the arrival volume increases, the port inventory rises, and the iron ore price drops after rising. It is recommended to go short at high prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the producing area is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The third - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has回调, and the downstream demand has briefly recovered. Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the pressure at 86500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has increased in both volume and price, but the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main operation range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as zinc oscillating at a high level between 22300 - 23000, tin maintaining a high - level oscillation, etc. [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectations are weak, and the cost - end support is limited, with limited rebound space [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options and consider a reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and trading suggestions, such as PVC being recommended to go short on rebounds [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The prices of some grains and oils are affected by factors such as trade negotiations and production. For example, the price of palm oil is weak, and it is recommended to close the long positions of some contracts [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig price is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own price trend and trading suggestions, such as sugar being recommended to trade short on rebounds [2]. Special and New Energy Products - **Glass**: There is support at the bottom due to the peak construction season and production line disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot market for short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. - **Rubber**: The negative factors have been gradually digested, and the rubber price has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are mainly oscillating, with specific price ranges [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading logic has changed recently, and it is in a weak adjustment [2].

Report Summary Core Views - The basic consensus reached in the high - level China - US economic and trade talks will ease market concerns, help the short - term rise of stock index futures and commodity futures, and suppress the short - term rise of treasury bond futures [2] - The central bank's continued over - quantity renewal of MLF to inject liquidity into the market will help the short - term price increase of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7] - If the EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 24 continues to decline, it will contribute to the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [10] - If the Q3 2025 seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value of the eurozone is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures (except gold and silver) and slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures [16] - If the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI in China in October are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures, but help the rise of treasury bond futures [21] - If the annual rates of the US September PCE price index and core PCE price index are slightly lower than the previous values, but the monthly rate of the PCE price index is slightly higher than the previous value, it will strengthen the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November [23] Key Events and Their Expected Impacts October 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September and for September. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an 20.4% year - on - year increase in August. The announcement results will affect related industrial product futures prices, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [4] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in October is 200 billion yuan, with eight consecutive months of increased renewal [7] October 28 - The US will announce the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with an expected value of 94.2, the same as the previous value [8] October 29 - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. It is expected that the overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada on October 30 will be cut by 25 basis points to 2.25% [9] - The US will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24. The previous value decreased by 961,000 barrels [10] October 30 - The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference [11] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference [12] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [14] - Germany will announce the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0%, compared with - 0.3% in Q2 [15] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0.1%, the same as Q2; the expected seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value is 1.2%, compared with 1.5% in Q2 [16] - The eurozone will announce the economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for October. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.7, and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 10.1 [17] - The US will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value is 3%, compared with 3.8% in the previous period [19] - Germany will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected CPI annual rate initial value is 2.2%, compared with 2.4% in the previous period [20] October 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for October. The expected manufacturing PMI is 49.6, and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 49.8 [21] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.1%, and the expected core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.3% [22] - The US will announce the September PCE price index. The expected PCE price index annual rate is 2.7%, the expected core PCE price index annual rate is 2.9%, and the expected PCE core price index monthly rate is 0.3% [23] Other Information - As of October 24, the US government has been shut down for 24 days. A Republican congresswoman said the shutdown may last until the end of November. If it continues, the release of US economic data (especially the September PCE price index) is likely to be delayed [2] - From October 25 to 26, China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a basic consensus on resolving respective concerns [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30, with the theme of "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Change, and Reshaping" [5] - From October 30 to November 1, President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea and conduct a state visit to South Korea [3][14]

Market Events Overview - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 4,257 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with significant amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 37 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 1.594 billion shares with a total market value of 27.453 billion yuan based on the closing price on July 11 [1] - The peak unlocking day is July 14, with 16 companies unlocking shares worth a total of 16.858 billion yuan, accounting for 61.4% of the total unlocking scale [1] Economic Data Releases - On July 14, China will release data on June trade balance, M2 year-on-year, and new RMB loans [1] - On July 15, China will announce Q2 GDP, national real estate development investment from January to June, and urban unemployment rate for June [1][4] - The U.S. will release June CPI data on July 15 and June PPI data on July 16, with the previous month's CPI showing a downward trend [4] Regulatory Changes - New regulations for individual business registration will take effect on July 15, aimed at refining the management rules for individual businesses [4] - A new round of fuel price adjustments will open on July 15, with 13 rounds of price changes occurring this year [5]

Group 1: Key Economic Events - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to be voted on by the U.S. Senate before July 4, with a recent update passing with a vote of 51 to 49 [3][4] - China's June PMI data is anticipated, with May's manufacturing PMI showing an increase to 49.5, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment [6] - The U.S. is set to release the June non-farm payroll report, with expectations of an increase of 116,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in the previous month [7][8] Group 2: Legislative Changes and Economic Policies - The updated "Big Beautiful" bill includes changes to state and local tax deductions, raising the cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for five years before reverting back, which has drawn mixed reactions [5] - Adjustments to Medicaid funding and stricter requirements for clean energy tax credits are also part of the bill, potentially impacting major renewable energy developers [5] - The bill aims to avoid an August default by raising the debt ceiling significantly, while also cutting funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau [5] Group 3: International Cooperation and Forums - The BRICS summit is scheduled for July 6-7 in Rio de Janeiro, with Brazil taking over the presidency for 2025 [9][10] - The European Central Bank's central bank forum is taking place from June 30 to July 2, focusing on macroeconomic transformation and policy responses [11][12] Group 4: Oil Production and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, with expectations for further increases in August [14][15] - There are concerns regarding OPEC+ unity, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as they navigate market share and production levels [16] Group 5: Corporate Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is set to review the IPO application of He Yuan Biotechnology, marking the first case under the newly restarted fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [20][21] - Microsoft is planning significant layoffs in its Xbox division as part of a broader restructuring effort, marking the fourth major round of layoffs in 18 months [22]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The week includes significant economic data releases such as the US non-farm payrolls and PMI figures for various regions [1][2] - Key Point 2: Major events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and central bank meetings in Australia and Europe [1][2] - Key Point 3: Earnings reports from companies like NIO and Broadcom are scheduled, indicating potential market movements [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Data releases on manufacturing and service PMIs from China, Europe, and the US are crucial for assessing economic health [2][3] - Key Point 2: The European Central Bank and Bank of Canada are set to announce interest rate decisions, impacting monetary policy outlooks [2] - Key Point 3: The week also features various economic indicators such as unemployment rates and GDP figures, which are essential for investment analysis [2][3]

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims data from the US will be released shortly, which is a key indicator of the labor market [1] - April retail sales month-on-month data is expected to be published, providing insights into consumer spending trends [1] - Monthly and annual Producer Price Index (PPI) figures will be announced, which are crucial for understanding inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing indices from the Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserves for May will be disclosed, reflecting regional economic conditions [1] - Canada's wholesale sales month-on-month data for March will also be released, indicating trends in the Canadian economy [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting May 15, and by 5 percentage points for auto finance and leasing companies [6][12] - Multiple domestic internet giants will release their financial reports next week, including JD.com on May 13, Tencent on May 14, and Alibaba and NetEase on May 15 [6][14] - E-commerce platforms such as Tmall and Suning will start their 618 pre-sale activities on May 13, while Douyin Mall and JD.com will also launch promotional events on the same day [6][15] Group 2 - 28 stocks in the A-share market will face the unlocking of restricted shares next week, totaling 1.066 billion shares with a market value of 18.63 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 58.25% [3] - The stocks with the highest unlocking market value include Guojin Securities, Qiangrui Technology, and Jiangsu Huachen, with respective values of 4.166 billion yuan, 3.243 billion yuan, and 2.644 billion yuan [3][4] - There will be no new stock subscriptions in the A-share market next week, but Tian Gong Co. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13 [3][5] Group 3 - Walmart is expected to report its Q1 2026 financial results on May 15, with projected revenue of $164.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, and an expected earnings per share of $0.579, a decrease of 8.11% [6][16] - UBS analysts believe Walmart's first-quarter results will show stable and predictable revenue despite broader concerns about tariffs and economic pressures [6][16] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q1 2025 on May 16 [3][4] - The U.S. will release key economic data next week, including the April CPI on May 13 and the April PPI and retail sales on May 15 [4][5]