1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly, with significant increases in the closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 contracts and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate. The price of lithium hydroxide also continued to rise [2][11]. - After the suspension of production at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market shifted from expected trading to real - time trading, and the balance sheet for the third quarter will turn into a de - stocking phase. In August, the market is in a tight balance, while the gap will widen in September. Longer - term production suspension will significantly narrow the annual surplus [3][12]. - The supply - side disturbances are not completely resolved, and there are concerns about potential production cuts in other projects in Qinghai and Jiangxi. On the demand side, the third - quarter is characterized by "off - season not so off", with the production of cells and materials increasing monthly driven by energy - storage demand. In the short term, prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, look for opportunities to go long on dips, and avoid mid - term short positions for now [3][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Supply Disturbances Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Interest Gradually Released - From August 11th to 15th, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly. The closing price of LC2509 increased by 13.4% to 86,900 yuan/ton, and that of LC2511 increased by 12.9% to 86,900 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 15% to 82,700 and 80,400 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of SMM coarse - particle and micron - powder battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 12% to 74,000 and 79,000 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - After the production suspension at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market moved from expected trading to real - time trading, with a 13% increase in the week. The production loss will lead to de - stocking in the third - quarter balance sheet. In August, the market is in a tight balance, and the gap will widen in September. Longer - term suspension will narrow the annual surplus. After the actual production cut, downstream purchasing interest recovered, and the acceleration of SMM price adjustments and the narrowing of the basis and monthly long - term contract spread stimulated downstream buying [12]. 3.2 Week - to - Week Industry News Review - In July, China's power - battery loading volume was 55.9GWh, a 4.0% month - on - month decrease but a 34.3% year - on - year increase. Among them, ternary battery loading volume was 10.9GWh (19.6% of the total, up 1.9% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery loading volume was 44.9GWh (80.4% of the total, down 5.3% month - on - month and up 49.0% year - on - year) [15]. - CATL's Yichun project suspended mining operations after the mining license expired on August 9th and is applying for a renewal. The impact on the company's overall operations is small [15]. - US - based Piedmont Lithium's North American Lithium (NAL) set a new production record in the second quarter, producing 58,500 tons of lithium concentrate and shipping about 67,200 tons. Piedmont expects lithium - spodumene shipments to reach 113,000 - 125,000 tons by 2025 [15]. - The Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, maintain industrial safety, and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [16]. - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased by 38% in the second quarter, and the total sustaining cash cost decreased by 24% year - on - year. However, the total sales volume decreased by 23%, and the net loss widened [16]. 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rebound - The spot average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 21.0% to 940 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Lithium Salts: The Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The closing prices of lithium - carbonate futures contracts, including LC2509 and LC2511, and spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate all increased significantly [11][12]. - The price of lithium hydroxide continued to rise, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [11]. 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Slightly Rebound - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium all increased to varying degrees [12]. 3.3.4 Terminal: China's New - Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - In July, China's new - energy vehicle penetration rate slightly increased, and the power - battery loading volume showed certain changes in structure and scale [15]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：治理内卷式竞争主要影响下游汽车行业需 求，关注宏观情绪扰动放大波动率 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 63,980 | 1,000 | 2,800 | 3,500 | 4,180 | -9,960 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 165 | -790 | -28,570 | -35,457 | -429,119 | -13,227 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 7,710 | -3,135 | -40,124 | -91,556 | -253,299 | -48,748 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/7/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 63,960.00 | +1180.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -54,211.00 | +7329.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 325,574.00 | -1102.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 280.00 | -120.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 23,180.00 | +240.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 61,650.00 | +350.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 60,050.00 | +350.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -2,310.00 | -830.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 694.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 20.53 and RMB 34.35, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 3.772 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 25.43% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 24.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -RMB 356 million, showing an improvement from -RMB 1.434 billion in Q4 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 18.93% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 75.18%. The company is expected to gain significant earnings elasticity when the industry recovers due to its ongoing expansion in upstream quality resources and midstream smelting capacity [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's Q1 2025 gross margin was 12.95%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The average spot price of lithium carbonate was RMB 75,800 per ton, unchanged quarter-over-quarter, while the average price of spodumene (CIF) increased by 5.8% to USD 834.4 per ton. The cost of the Mt Marion mine, in which the company holds a 50% stake, decreased significantly by 34.2% quarter-over-quarter, supporting the recovery of the company's gross margin [2][3]. Cost and Pricing Outlook - The cost of lithium mining continues to decline, with the FOB costs for Mt Marion and Wodgina mines dropping by 34.2% and 23.5% respectively in Q1 2025. This trend indicates potential further decreases in lithium prices, which may remain under pressure due to a long-term oversupply in the market. The cost reductions at Mt Marion are beneficial for the company's mining profitability and may provide some support for its performance [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downward due to the declining cost curve in the lithium industry. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 514 million, RMB 1.539 billion, and RMB 3.339 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.25, RMB 0.76, and RMB 1.66. The expected BPS for the same period is RMB 20.82, RMB 21.43, and RMB 22.94. The company is assigned a 2025 PB of 1.65 times, with a target price based on the April 29, 2025 exchange rate [4][6].