Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC.US) plummeted by 21.72% following news of a potential investment by the U.S. government in the company and its Thacker Pass project, despite the stock having previously surged over threefold [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock rating from "Neutral" to "Underweight," setting a target price of $5, citing that the current valuation is significantly high [1] - The stock's surge was attributed to retail and momentum-driven buying, which has led to a disconnection from the company's fundamentals [1] Group 2: Project Potential and Strategic Position - Analyst Bill Peterson believes the Thacker Pass project has strong potential due to low-cost debt financing, a solid off-take agreement with General Motors (GM.US), and its strategic position as a representative of the Western lithium industry, especially with anticipated rising lithium prices in the coming years [1] - The U.S. government's investment in Lithium Americas is viewed more as a protective measure against potential losses rather than a strategic investment similar to the case of MP Materials (MP.US) [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Peterson suggests that the visible incremental upside in the model is insufficient to support Lithium Americas' current valuation after considering revised loan terms and equity dilution factors [1] - There is a possibility of stock price correction if U.S.-China trade relations show signs of normalization in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly, with significant increases in the closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 contracts and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate. The price of lithium hydroxide also continued to rise [2][11]. - After the suspension of production at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market shifted from expected trading to real - time trading, and the balance sheet for the third quarter will turn into a de - stocking phase. In August, the market is in a tight balance, while the gap will widen in September. Longer - term production suspension will significantly narrow the annual surplus [3][12]. - The supply - side disturbances are not completely resolved, and there are concerns about potential production cuts in other projects in Qinghai and Jiangxi. On the demand side, the third - quarter is characterized by "off - season not so off", with the production of cells and materials increasing monthly driven by energy - storage demand. In the short term, prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, look for opportunities to go long on dips, and avoid mid - term short positions for now [3][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Supply Disturbances Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Interest Gradually Released - From August 11th to 15th, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly. The closing price of LC2509 increased by 13.4% to 86,900 yuan/ton, and that of LC2511 increased by 12.9% to 86,900 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 15% to 82,700 and 80,400 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of SMM coarse - particle and micron - powder battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 12% to 74,000 and 79,000 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - After the production suspension at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market moved from expected trading to real - time trading, with a 13% increase in the week. The production loss will lead to de - stocking in the third - quarter balance sheet. In August, the market is in a tight balance, and the gap will widen in September. Longer - term suspension will narrow the annual surplus. After the actual production cut, downstream purchasing interest recovered, and the acceleration of SMM price adjustments and the narrowing of the basis and monthly long - term contract spread stimulated downstream buying [12]. 3.2 Week - to - Week Industry News Review - In July, China's power - battery loading volume was 55.9GWh, a 4.0% month - on - month decrease but a 34.3% year - on - year increase. Among them, ternary battery loading volume was 10.9GWh (19.6% of the total, up 1.9% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery loading volume was 44.9GWh (80.4% of the total, down 5.3% month - on - month and up 49.0% year - on - year) [15]. - CATL's Yichun project suspended mining operations after the mining license expired on August 9th and is applying for a renewal. The impact on the company's overall operations is small [15]. - US - based Piedmont Lithium's North American Lithium (NAL) set a new production record in the second quarter, producing 58,500 tons of lithium concentrate and shipping about 67,200 tons. Piedmont expects lithium - spodumene shipments to reach 113,000 - 125,000 tons by 2025 [15]. - The Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, maintain industrial safety, and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [16]. - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased by 38% in the second quarter, and the total sustaining cash cost decreased by 24% year - on - year. However, the total sales volume decreased by 23%, and the net loss widened [16]. 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rebound - The spot average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 21.0% to 940 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Lithium Salts: The Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The closing prices of lithium - carbonate futures contracts, including LC2509 and LC2511, and spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate all increased significantly [11][12]. - The price of lithium hydroxide continued to rise, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [11]. 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Slightly Rebound - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium all increased to varying degrees [12]. 3.3.4 Terminal: China's New - Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - In July, China's new - energy vehicle penetration rate slightly increased, and the power - battery loading volume showed certain changes in structure and scale [15]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：治理内卷式竞争主要影响下游汽车行业需 求，关注宏观情绪扰动放大波动率 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 63,980 | 1,000 | 2,800 | 3,500 | 4,180 | -9,960 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 165 | -790 | -28,570 | -35,457 | -429,119 | -13,227 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 7,710 | -3,135 | -40,124 | -91,556 | -253,299 | -48,748 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows an upward trend in the futures market, with the main contract closing price rising by 3.19%. However, the fundamental situation remains one of excessive supply and weak demand, and the industrial inventory is at a high level. The upstream and downstream are in a price - based game. In the option market, the sentiment is bullish. The operation suggestion is to short at high positions with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,960 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 54,211 lots, up 7,329 lots; the position of the main contract is 325,574 lots, down 1,102 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 280 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,180 lots, up 240 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,310 yuan/ton, down 830 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 694 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,600 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 176,320 lots, up 9,019 lots; the total put position is 85,766 lots, down 831 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 48.64%, down 3.119 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.22%, down 0.0121 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 units, a year - on - year increase of over 138%; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 units, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 units, a year - on - year decrease of 24%; XPeng's delivery volume was 34,611 units, a year - on - year increase of 224%; Xiaomi's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 units; NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [2]. - Chilean state - owned copper giant Codelco has obtained the lithium mining quota approval from the country's nuclear energy regulatory agency CCHEN, which will allow its joint venture with SQM to mine lithium resources equivalent to 2.5 million tons of lithium metal (LME) from 2031 to 2060, and up to 3.02 million tons if environmental permits are obtained [2]. - Jinan will conduct a new - energy vehicle consumption subsidy program from July 1 to July 31, with a total subsidy of 12 million yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 20.53 and RMB 34.35, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 3.772 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 25.43% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 24.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -RMB 356 million, showing an improvement from -RMB 1.434 billion in Q4 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 18.93% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 75.18%. The company is expected to gain significant earnings elasticity when the industry recovers due to its ongoing expansion in upstream quality resources and midstream smelting capacity [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's Q1 2025 gross margin was 12.95%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The average spot price of lithium carbonate was RMB 75,800 per ton, unchanged quarter-over-quarter, while the average price of spodumene (CIF) increased by 5.8% to USD 834.4 per ton. The cost of the Mt Marion mine, in which the company holds a 50% stake, decreased significantly by 34.2% quarter-over-quarter, supporting the recovery of the company's gross margin [2][3]. Cost and Pricing Outlook - The cost of lithium mining continues to decline, with the FOB costs for Mt Marion and Wodgina mines dropping by 34.2% and 23.5% respectively in Q1 2025. This trend indicates potential further decreases in lithium prices, which may remain under pressure due to a long-term oversupply in the market. The cost reductions at Mt Marion are beneficial for the company's mining profitability and may provide some support for its performance [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downward due to the declining cost curve in the lithium industry. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 514 million, RMB 1.539 billion, and RMB 3.339 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.25, RMB 0.76, and RMB 1.66. The expected BPS for the same period is RMB 20.82, RMB 21.43, and RMB 22.94. The company is assigned a 2025 PB of 1.65 times, with a target price based on the April 29, 2025 exchange rate [4][6].