26 年锂电年度策略：需求强劲，价格弹性可期，开启新周 期 20251217 摘要 2026 年储能需求乐观，各市场和应用领域（包括 AI）将呈现高增长， 动力电池增速预计超 20%，市场空间到 2030 年达 5~6 TWh，显著高 于 2024-2025 年的 2 TWh。 高端铁锂正极、六氟磷酸锂等材料紧缺程度较高，碳酸锂供应紧张，预 计后年更为明显，10 月起供需关系发生本质变化，价格上涨趋势明确， 利好相关企业。 中国新能源汽车市场 2026 年本土销量预期增长不到 10%，但加上出口 后整体增速可达 15%，总销量预计超过 1,900 万辆，出口同比增长 50%以上。 2026 年单车带电量预计提升约 10%，主要因插电车型需满足购置税补 贴要求，续航里程需达 100 公里以上，以及新型大增程车型平均带电量 提高。 海外市场中，欧洲 2026 年预期增长超 30%，总销量达 500 万辆以上； 新兴市场预计增长 50%左右；美国市场因补贴退出影响，销量可能持平 或略降。 Q&A 对于锂电池行业的未来发展趋势和市场需求，您有何看法？ 从 2025 年 8 月底开始，我们对锂电池行业持全面看多的态度， ...

摘要 共同指向"下一轮需求曲线的信心程度"。 12月进入第二周，锂电产业链的节奏再次出现加速切换。 同时，行业媒体和机构在过去两个月的调研中已多次提到"储能电芯悄然涨价"： 在国内外需求叠加、"一芯难求"的背景下，主流厂商储能电芯价格环比上涨0.02–0.03元/Wh，部分企业甚至暂停接单，优先保障既有长单。 电池端开始"敢涨价"，而产业龙头在资本层面加了一道杠杆。 12月10日晚，宁德时代公告称，为满足生产经营和业务发展需求、优化债务结构、降低融资成本，公司拟注册发行不超过100亿元、期限不超过5年的公司 债，可一次或分次在银行间或交易所市场公开发行，由承销机构余额包销。 几乎同一时间，固态电池企业北京卫蓝新能源科技股份有限公司出现在证监会辅导备案名单中。 卫蓝已于12月10日正式启动首次公开发行股票并上市辅导，中信建投证券担任辅导机构。 三件事落在一条时间线上的含义，或许比各自单看更值得琢磨： 在一个可能重启的周期入口，锂电行业正在同时动用价格权、债务杠杆和股权融资三种工具，重新排布未来几年的筹码。 12月9日，苏州德加能源通过公告通知客户，自12月16日起，其电池系列产品售价将在现行目录价基础上统一上调 ...

倒计时10天 2025（第十届）起点锂电行业年会暨锂电金鼎奖颁奖典礼 &起点研究十周年庆典 2025起点用户侧储能及电池技术论坛 活动主题： 新周期 新技术 新生态 活动时间： 2025年12月18-19日 活动地址： 深圳市维纳斯皇家酒店（深圳国际会展中心京基百纳店）三楼维纳斯厅（深圳市宝安区沙井 镇沙井路118号） 主办单位： 起点锂电、起点固态电池、起点储能、起点研究院SPIR 活动规模： 线下1200+，在线直播观看30000+ 第一批赞助及演讲单位： 新能安/ 海辰储能/融捷能源/瑞浦兰钧/逸飞激光/鹏辉能源/多氟多/远东电 池/国轩吉泰 美 /诺达智慧/创明新能源/德赛电池/陀普科技/蓝京新能源/北测新能源/亿鑫丰/达力智 能/金力股份/苏州莫洛奇/先导智能/尚太科技/超业精密/科迈罗/东唐智能/贤辰智享/爱签/中天和/和明 机械/信瑞新能源/亿纬锂能/派能科技/移族/新日股份/弘正储能/亮见钠电/易事特/清陶云能/小鲁锂电/ 仲恺高新区/信宇人/奥鸿智能/星恒电源 /乾纳智能 /昆仑化学 等 近日，又一家TOP级锂电负极材料企业计划冲击资本市场！ 据 证监会网站12月5日披露， 广东东岛新能源股 ...

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is entering a new phase of high-quality growth by 2025, moving away from previous adjustment cycles, with significant market expansions expected in both power and energy storage batteries [3][4] - The industry is set to experience a third wave of capacity expansion, with an anticipated increase of over 700 GWh in effective capacity by 2026, supporting market demand growth [3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - The power battery market is projected to achieve a milestone with annual shipments reaching TWh levels, and the energy storage battery market is expected to maintain a doubling growth trend, becoming a core engine for industry growth [3] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by technological advancements and cost reductions, with the cost of wind and solar energy decreasing dramatically over the past decade [9][10] Group 2: Key Speakers and Their Insights - Zhao Weijun from Farasis Energy emphasized the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of the lithium battery industry and highlighted three core certainties for the new cycle: demand certainty, competitive methodology certainty, and globalization certainty [9][10] - Dr. Cao Hui from Ruipu Lanjun reported a 50%+ year-on-year growth in battery installations, with significant achievements in both passenger and energy storage markets, advocating for a shift from globalization to regional collaboration [11][14] - Chen Yanbin from Dingsheng Technology discussed the challenges in achieving higher energy density in lithium batteries, focusing on the need for systematic improvements across different material levels [15][18] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Nord's president Chen Yubi highlighted the rising cost of copper and the company's efforts to develop ultra-thin copper foil to reduce costs, which can save approximately 9.3 million yuan per GWh [22][23] - The introduction of nickel-plated alloy foil by Nord aims to address corrosion issues in solid-state batteries, enhancing performance and reliability [22][23] - The CEO of SES AI, Hu Qichao, discussed how AI is revolutionizing battery R&D by enabling faster and more efficient development processes, significantly reducing resource consumption compared to traditional methods [33][34]

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a new cycle characterized by rising prices and increasing demand for hexafluorophosphate lithium, which is a key raw material for electrolytes [2][3][4] Price Trends - Hexafluorophosphate lithium prices have been on the rise since September, reaching an average of 160,500 CNY per ton by November 25, marking a 226% increase from the low of 49,300 CNY per ton in July [3] Order and Demand - The industry is witnessing robust demand, with companies reporting significant improvements in performance. For instance, the revenue of Dofluorid increased over fourfold year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while Tianqi Materials reported a 22.34% increase in revenue to 10.843 billion CNY [4] Production Expansion - To meet the growing demand in the energy storage market, the industry has initiated multiple expansion projects for hexafluorophosphate lithium, with nearly 10 projects updated this year [5][6] Specific Projects - Notable projects include: - Hongyuan Pharmaceutical's 6,000 tons/year hexafluorophosphate lithium expansion project, which has passed energy-saving and environmental assessments [6] - The approval of Jiangxi Fuli's 50,000 tons/year hexafluorophosphate lithium project, which is in the equipment procurement phase [8] - Xinjiang Kexin Chemical's investment of 8.647 billion CNY for a project that includes 30,000 tons/year of hexafluorophosphate lithium [9] Capacity and Market Dynamics - The current market is dominated by leading companies with concentrated market share and effective capacity. This is expected to lead to increased orders and high operating rates, positively impacting performance [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cycle characterized by a dual resonance of demand structure upgrades and supply-side optimization, leading to a new round of price and volume increases across various segments [4] Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with the main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange breaking the 100,000 yuan per ton mark, reaching 100,100 yuan per ton, the highest since July 2024 [5] - The chairman of Ganfeng Lithium predicts that if demand grows over 30% next year, lithium prices could reach 200,000 yuan per ton, further stimulating market bullish sentiment [5] - The phenomenon of "one price a day" has emerged, driven by strong demand, particularly in the energy storage sector, despite a month-on-month decline in new installations in October [8][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium price has experienced several cycles, with the first cycle (2015-2018) seeing demand growth over 50%, leading to a price increase from 42,000 yuan per ton to a peak of 180,000 yuan per ton [7] - The second cycle (2019-2020) was marked by a significant drop in prices to between 60,000 and 40,000 yuan per ton due to reduced subsidies for electric vehicles and increased overseas lithium production [8] - The third cycle (2021-2022) saw prices soar from 50,000 yuan per ton to 600,000 yuan per ton as global electric vehicle penetration exceeded 20% [8] - The current cycle (2023-2025) is characterized by oversupply, with prices plummeting from 600,000 yuan per ton to below 60,000 yuan per ton by June 2025 [8] Group 3: Corporate Strategies and Performance - Companies are accelerating long-term cooperation agreements due to rising lithium prices and concerns about future supply tightening, as seen in the agreement between Shengxin Lithium Energy and Huayou Cobalt for the procurement of 221,400 tons of lithium salt products [12] - Shengxin Lithium Energy reported a revenue of 3.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 89 million yuan in Q3, marking a significant turnaround [13] - Tianqi Lithium's net profit for the first three quarters reached 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.16%, with Q3 showing a net profit of 95.5 million yuan, reversing losses from the previous year [13] - Salt Lake Co. reported a revenue of 11.111 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.34%, with a net profit of 4.503 billion yuan, reflecting a gross margin of 59.18% [14] Group 4: Future Outlook - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman forecasts that if lithium demand grows over 30% in 2026, prices could exceed 150,000 yuan per ton, driven by a supply-demand gap [15] - Tianqi Lithium maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, expecting short-term price support from supply-demand tightness while being wary of potential oversupply in 2025 [15] - Salt Lake Co. plans to expand production capacity to 150,000 tons per year by 2026, aiming to stabilize prices through long-term contracts [15] - Jiuling Lithium Industry anticipates a positive short-term market, expecting to turn profitable in Q4 as lithium prices exceed 100,000 yuan per ton [16]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cycle characterized by a dual resonance of demand structure upgrades and supply-side optimization, leading to a new round of price and volume increases across various segments [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market for VC (Vinyl Carbonate) is currently experiencing significant price volatility, with prices reaching over 155,000 yuan/ton, a more than 200% increase from the historical low of approximately 46,300 yuan/ton in early September 2025 [2]. - Recent production halts by major manufacturers, Shandong Genyuan and Zhejiang Yipu, have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in a price surge of 68% in a single day [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Factors - Shandong Genyuan, a key player with a production capacity of 20,000 tons, has halted shipments due to equipment failures, while Zhejiang Yipu has also announced a complete shutdown for repairs [3]. - The overall supply of VC is constrained by slow expansion, high investment and technical barriers, and lengthy certification processes, with new capacity expected to be primarily from leading enterprises by 2026 [4]. Group 3: Demand Influences - The new expansion wave in lithium batteries is driving a surge in demand for various materials, particularly lithium carbonate, which has already entered a new price increase cycle [4]. - The energy storage market is booming, with steady demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which have a higher VC additive ratio compared to nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries [4].

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cycle characterized by a dual resonance of demand structure upgrades and supply-side optimization, leading to a significant increase in both volume and price across the industry chain [3] - The industry is transitioning from "involution competition" to "value competition" driven by next-generation technological innovations, globalization, and policy support [3] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new cycle is marked by a reversal in supply and demand at the battery end, with a surge in orders driven by leading battery companies, significantly boosting operational rates and capacity utilization across the industry [4] - Major companies like CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others have initiated long-term contracts in the materials sector, signaling high industry prosperity [4] Group 2: CATL's Strategic Moves - CATL has made significant investments in cathode materials, securing long-term agreements for 157,500 tons of lithium iron phosphate capacity and establishing a 450,000-ton high-end lithium iron phosphate production line [6] - In November, CATL became the first to lock in sodium battery cathode capacity with Rongbai Technology, committing to purchase at least 60% of its total procurement from them [7] - CATL's sodium-ion battery, set for mass production by December 2025, boasts an energy density of 175Wh/kg and exceptional performance metrics [8] Group 3: Electrolyte Market Developments - Tianqi Materials has emerged as a key player, securing long-term contracts with multiple companies, including a commitment to supply at least 550,000 tons of electrolyte products to Chuangneng New Energy by 2030 [10][11] - The total supply agreements with major companies amount to approximately 294,500 tons, significantly exceeding Tianqi's current production capacity of 86,000 tons, indicating strong future revenue support [12] - The electrolyte market is showing signs of recovery, with prices for key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate rising sharply, indicating a bullish trend [13] Group 4: Anode Material Trends - The demand for anode materials is robust, with a 35.1% year-on-year increase in shipments, reaching 2.011 million tons in the first nine months of the year [15] - Leading companies are expanding their production capabilities, with Shanshan Technology and others reporting full capacity utilization and plans for further investment [16][17] - The anode materials sector is also experiencing price increases, with some companies raising prices by approximately 10% due to rising raw material costs [18] Group 5: Overall Industry Outlook - The current growth cycle is characterized by a prolonged bottoming out of material prices, with expectations of continued price increases and improved profitability for companies [18] - The industry is shifting towards deeper technical collaborations rather than traditional supply relationships, enhancing competitive advantages [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the lithium battery sector [4] Core Insights - The demand for lithium batteries is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple application scenarios [11] - Supply and demand dynamics are showing initial signs of a turning point, with expectations of price increases [9] Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage is supported by the formation of domestic business models and the global shift towards cost parity in solar storage [13] - In China, the expected bidding volume for energy storage in the second half of 2025 is projected to exceed 190 GWh, with potential annual installations reaching 183 GWh to over 200 GWh depending on the execution rate [17] - Globally, the report estimates that by 2030, the newly installed capacity for energy storage could reach 1,327 GWh, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% [17] Supply Analysis - The report indicates that the supply side is beginning to show signs of a turning point, with price expectations strengthening [9] - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms across various provinces in China is expected to enhance the revenue assurance for energy storage projects [14] Market Trends - The report notes that the electric heavy truck market in China has seen explosive growth, with sales reaching 96,000 units in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179% [30] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is experiencing a surge, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% needed to meet new carbon emission standards [40] Future Projections - The report anticipates that by 2030, China's total installed capacity for renewable energy, including solar and wind, will reach 1,291 GW, with energy storage capacity expected to be 1,327 GWh [19] - The demand for energy storage in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, with an expected total demand of 1,199 GWh from 2025 to 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 56% [28]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing a significant price surge, with expectations for continued demand and improved profitability for leading companies in the sector, although a return to previous extreme price levels is not anticipated [1][4][8]. Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded sharply from a low of 49,800 yuan/ton on July 18 to 110,800 yuan/ton by October 31, marking an increase of over 120% in less than four months [2][4]. - The price fluctuations have been described as "one price a day," indicating a volatile market environment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Leading companies in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector are operating at full capacity, with a significant improvement in supply-demand relationships [6][10]. - The demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is driven by the explosive growth in the new energy and energy storage industries, alongside cautious capacity expansion from suppliers [4][5]. Company Performance - Major companies such as Tianqi Materials, Dufluor, and Tianji Co. reported improved third-quarter performance, with Tianqi Materials seeing a 52% year-on-year increase in net profit [5][6]. - Dufluor turned a profit in the third quarter, reporting a net profit of 26.72 million yuan, while Tianji Co. significantly reduced its losses [5]. Market Outlook - Companies expect the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to continue rising, with optimistic forecasts for demand in the first quarter of the following year [6][8]. - The industry anticipates that the supply-demand balance will remain tight until at least 2026, with potential for further price increases [4][6]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing Strategies - Companies are tightening the terms for long-term contracts, requiring upfront payments and adjusting prices based on market conditions [6][7]. - Pricing for long-term contracts is flexible and may be adjusted monthly to reflect market prices, ensuring core customers receive a certain level of supply [7][8]. Industry Trends - The overall industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with many smaller companies lacking confidence in expanding production capacity [9][10]. - The market is characterized by a cautious approach to capacity expansion, with leading firms likely to dominate future supply increases [9].