当前，锂电新周期脉络已逐渐明晰。需求结构升级与供给端优化的双重共振，助推各环节迎来新一轮量价齐升。同时，下一代技术创新、全球化布局和政策驱动，推动行业从"内卷 式竞争"向"价值竞争"转型。在这轮产业链价值重构和博弈中，起点锂电策划了" 与行业同频·迎锂电新周期 "专题，阐述行业新变化、新特征，以期为行业朋友提供一些新思考。 需求前景乐观带动涨势，碳酸锂 已 连续多日上涨。 广州期货交易所碳酸锂主力合约 11 月 20 日一举飙破每吨 10 万元关卡，达到 100100 元每吨。 这一关键原材料现货价格也攀升至 2024 年 7 月以来最高水准。 赣锋锂业董事长李良彬近日预测，若明年需求成长超过 30% ，锂价可能冲上每吨 20 万元 ，这番言论更激发市场做多情绪。价格暴涨直接 传导至资本市场，相关概念股也迎来一波上涨。天齐锂业 11 月 20 日开盘一度上涨超 5% ，赣锋锂业则上涨达 7% 。 01 一天一个价 回顾来看，在供需格局拉扯和市场供应链博弈中，锂价已走过几轮较为明显的周期： 第一轮周期（ 2015 — 2018 年），动力电池级碳酸锂需求爆发，年增速超 50% ，全球锂资源并购潮兴起，资本大量涌 ...

当前，锂电新周期脉络已逐渐明晰。需求结构升级与供给端优化的双重共振，助推各环节迎来新一轮量价齐升。同时， 下一代技术创新、全球化布局和政策驱动，推动行业从"内卷式竞争"向"价值竞争"转型。在这轮产业链价值重构和博弈 中，起点锂电策划了" 与行业同频·迎锂电新周期 "专题，阐述行业新变化、新特征，以期为行业朋友提供一些新思考。 锂电新周期下，近两年扩产止步的电解液添加剂VC产品（ 碳酸亚乙烯酯） 已面临产能紧张状 态，而近期两大主力厂商的停产通知，更是使得 VC的供应产能雪上加霜。 市场端，目前 VC处于"一天一价"情况。 截至11月18日， VC日涨超万元，最高报价 达到 15.5万元/吨以上。该价格较2025年9月初的历史低点（约4.63万元/吨）累计涨幅已超过 200%。 消息端，山东亘元及 浙江亿普的先后" 停产 "， 进一步刺激本就供需失衡的市场，致使 VC出 现 一夜暴涨68%的现象。 具体来看， 山东亘元是 宁德时代战略投资的细分龙头企业（宁德时代现为其第二大股东，持 股13.45% ）， 当前VC有效产能达2万吨，占全国8万吨总产能的25%。11月12日， 山东亘 元发布通知， 因设备故障启动停 ...

当前，锂电新周期脉络已逐渐明晰。需求结构升级与供给端优化的双重共振，助推各环节迎来新一轮量价齐升。同时，下一代技术创新、全球化布局和政策驱动，推动行业从"内卷 式竞争"向"价值竞争"转型。在这轮产业链价值重构和博弈中，起点锂电策划了" 与行业同频·迎锂电新周期 "专题，阐述行业新变化、新特征，以期为行业朋友提供一些新思考。 锂电新周期下，从电池端的供需反转、扩产补能，到目前材料端的量价齐升、长单频现，显然整个产业链已全面爆发！ 对于电池企业而言，新一轮周期并不是简单的扩充高端产能，供应链的稳定才是产能落地的基础。在此趋势下，新周期引导的 "抢货潮"加速 到来。 据起点锂电观察，自今年下半年以来，以电池头部企业为主要力量的抢单潮已明显启动，带动行业各环节开工率、产能利用率大幅提升。近期 宁德时代、国轩高科、楚能新能源、中创新航、瑞浦兰钧 等在材料端的锁单动作进一步释放了新周期高景气的行业信号。 01 宁德时代新打法：锁定钠电正极 "一供" 多线并举 2025 年以来，宁德时代在正极材料端的布局颇多。 比如磷酸铁锂层面，不仅通过预付款和股权增资方式锁定江西升华的磷酸铁锂产能，而且与龙蟠科技旗下锂源（亚太）签订 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the lithium battery sector [4] Core Insights - The demand for lithium batteries is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple application scenarios [11] - Supply and demand dynamics are showing initial signs of a turning point, with expectations of price increases [9] Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage is supported by the formation of domestic business models and the global shift towards cost parity in solar storage [13] - In China, the expected bidding volume for energy storage in the second half of 2025 is projected to exceed 190 GWh, with potential annual installations reaching 183 GWh to over 200 GWh depending on the execution rate [17] - Globally, the report estimates that by 2030, the newly installed capacity for energy storage could reach 1,327 GWh, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% [17] Supply Analysis - The report indicates that the supply side is beginning to show signs of a turning point, with price expectations strengthening [9] - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms across various provinces in China is expected to enhance the revenue assurance for energy storage projects [14] Market Trends - The report notes that the electric heavy truck market in China has seen explosive growth, with sales reaching 96,000 units in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179% [30] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is experiencing a surge, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% needed to meet new carbon emission standards [40] Future Projections - The report anticipates that by 2030, China's total installed capacity for renewable energy, including solar and wind, will reach 1,291 GW, with energy storage capacity expected to be 1,327 GWh [19] - The demand for energy storage in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, with an expected total demand of 1,199 GWh from 2025 to 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 56% [28]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing a significant price surge, with expectations for continued demand and improved profitability for leading companies in the sector, although a return to previous extreme price levels is not anticipated [1][4][8]. Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded sharply from a low of 49,800 yuan/ton on July 18 to 110,800 yuan/ton by October 31, marking an increase of over 120% in less than four months [2][4]. - The price fluctuations have been described as "one price a day," indicating a volatile market environment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Leading companies in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector are operating at full capacity, with a significant improvement in supply-demand relationships [6][10]. - The demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is driven by the explosive growth in the new energy and energy storage industries, alongside cautious capacity expansion from suppliers [4][5]. Company Performance - Major companies such as Tianqi Materials, Dufluor, and Tianji Co. reported improved third-quarter performance, with Tianqi Materials seeing a 52% year-on-year increase in net profit [5][6]. - Dufluor turned a profit in the third quarter, reporting a net profit of 26.72 million yuan, while Tianji Co. significantly reduced its losses [5]. Market Outlook - Companies expect the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to continue rising, with optimistic forecasts for demand in the first quarter of the following year [6][8]. - The industry anticipates that the supply-demand balance will remain tight until at least 2026, with potential for further price increases [4][6]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing Strategies - Companies are tightening the terms for long-term contracts, requiring upfront payments and adjusting prices based on market conditions [6][7]. - Pricing for long-term contracts is flexible and may be adjusted monthly to reflect market prices, ensuring core customers receive a certain level of supply [7][8]. Industry Trends - The overall industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with many smaller companies lacking confidence in expanding production capacity [9][10]. - The market is characterized by a cautious approach to capacity expansion, with leading firms likely to dominate future supply increases [9].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Investment Research Report raises the forecast for domestic energy storage installation growth next year to double, signaling the start of a new lithium battery cycle [1] Investment Opportunities - Key components such as energy storage batteries, system integration, and PCS (Power Conversion System) present investment opportunities [1] - The battery segment is currently in short supply, indicating potential for price increases, making it a preferred investment area [1] - The integration segment, as a provider in the overall value chain of energy storage systems, is experiencing a surge in orders from leading companies, suggesting significant earnings elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Investment has raised the forecast for domestic energy storage installation growth next year to double, indicating the start of a new lithium battery cycle [1] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities exist in energy storage batteries, system integration, and PCS (Power Conversion System) components [1] - The battery segment is currently experiencing a shortage, presenting significant price increase potential, making it a preferred investment area [1] - The integration segment, as a provider in the overall value chain of energy storage systems, is seeing a surge in orders from leading companies, indicating substantial performance elasticity [1]

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry in China is emerging from a significant restructuring phase, entering a new capital expenditure cycle characterized by three notable features [1][4]. Group 1: Characteristics of the New Capital Expenditure Cycle - The first characteristic is that capacity expansion is led by top-tier companies, with unprecedented demand rigidity and scale observed [2]. - By the first half of 2025, CATL's capacity utilization rate has rebounded to nearly 90%, marking the first time since 2022 that leading battery manufacturers have collectively surpassed 80% [3]. - The capital expenditure in the lithium battery industry has turned positive year-on-year, with a growth rate of 31.72% as of the first half of 2025, indicating a robust recovery [5][6]. - Three key demand drivers support this expansion: a market-driven energy storage sector, increased battery capacity per vehicle, and the need for equipment upgrades as older production lines approach the end of their lifecycle [8]. Group 2: Globalization of Production - The second characteristic is the globalization of production, transitioning from "product export" to "capacity export" [9]. - Chinese battery companies are accelerating their global expansion, with significant investments in production facilities in Europe and Southeast Asia [9][10]. - Overseas production is evolving from simple PACK assembly to more complex cell and module manufacturing, enhancing equipment value [10]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The third characteristic is the close resonance between capacity expansion and cutting-edge technology iterations, focusing on "advanced capacity" expansion [11]. - New technologies such as high-pressure lithium iron phosphate and solid-state batteries are driving revolutionary requirements for equipment [11][12]. - The procurement of pilot line equipment for solid-state batteries is already underway, indicating a proactive approach to future technological shifts [12][13]. Group 4: Challenges for Equipment Manufacturers - The new cycle presents three major challenges for equipment manufacturers: meeting high-volume production demands, providing automated production lines that meet international standards, and innovating in next-generation battery technologies [14]. - Haiyu Bate's advancements in high-throughput rolling equipment, automated European standard lines, and dry electrode technology exemplify how equipment companies can respond to these challenges [15][34]. Group 5: Haiyu Bate's Innovations - Haiyu Bate has developed high-throughput equipment with a roller diameter of 1.2 meters and a width of 1.6 meters, achieving production speeds of up to 120 m/min [18]. - The company has also introduced a fully automated vertical dual-reel structure, enhancing safety, space utilization, and production efficiency [33]. - In the dry electrode sector, Haiyu Bate's second-generation equipment supports independent pressure adjustments for each film-forming roller, addressing industry pain points and achieving higher density [36][38]. Conclusion - Haiyu Bate's development trajectory aligns closely with the lithium battery industry's evolution, driven by a commitment to understanding and addressing core customer needs [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lithium battery industry is experiencing a clear cyclical turning point after a prolonged downturn characterized by price wars and overcapacity, with strong evidence indicating a new capital expenditure cycle led by major enterprises based on genuine demand recovery [2][3]. Market Sentiment: From Divergent Trends to "Running Ahead" Expectations - The capital market signaled an industry reversal in Q2 2025, with core enterprises like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium seeing significant stock price recoveries, indicating a shift in investor focus towards companies with strong financial health and technological advantages [3][4]. - A notable event was CATL's potential production interruption due to a mining license expiration, which triggered a 10% surge in related lithium stocks, reflecting a fundamental shift in market expectations towards supply tightness [4]. Financial Data: The Logic of "Volume Over Price" Validated - In Q2 2025, the Chinese lithium battery industry achieved revenues of 267.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 13% [5]. - The net profit for the quarter reached 21.77 billion RMB, a year-on-year surge of 30.49% and an 18.68% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a robust recovery across the industry [6][7]. Operational Reality: Capacity Bottlenecks Triggering a New Investment Cycle - By Q2 2025, the capacity utilization rate of leading Chinese battery manufacturers exceeded 80% for the first time since 2022, indicating a significant operational recovery [10]. - CATL's capacity utilization reached 90%, close to its historical peak, necessitating new capacity investments to meet rising demand [11][12]. Capital Expenditure: A Clear Signal of New Cycle Initiation - Capital expenditures in the lithium battery industry turned positive in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 31.72%, particularly in battery manufacturing, where growth rates were 23% and 40% in Q1 and Q2 respectively [14]. - CATL's capital expenditure reached 20.2 billion RMB, a 46% increase year-on-year, primarily for domestic expansion and global layout [14][15]. Demand Foundation: Structural Changes Driving Real Growth - The demand driving this recovery has undergone profound changes, with the energy storage market emerging as a core engine for lithium demand, accounting for 27% of global battery production by 2025 [17][19]. - The power battery sector is also experiencing a significant transformation, with pure electric vehicle sales rebounding strongly, leading to increased demand for batteries [20][21]. Conclusion - The new capital expenditure wave in the lithium battery industry is supported by the explosive growth in the energy storage market and the optimization of demand structure in power batteries, marking a definitive turning point for the industry [22][23].

Core Insights - The 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, highlighted China's position as the largest new energy storage market, marking a shift towards a fully market-oriented phase in the energy storage industry [1] - Lithium-ion battery storage accounts for 96.4% of the installed capacity in China, indicating its dominance in the new energy storage market [1] - The discovery of the "Asian Lithium Belt," spanning 2,800 kilometers across four provinces, has significant implications for lithium resource availability and the lithium supply chain [1][6] Industry Developments - The Sichuan region is identified as a key area for lithium resources, with proven reserves accounting for over 50% of the national total [3] - The "Asian Lithium Belt" has revealed over 6.5 million tons of lithium resources, with potential exceeding 30 million tons, enhancing China's global lithium reserve ranking from sixth to second [7] - Investment in Sichuan's lithium battery industry has surged, with its share of national investment rising from 8% in 2019 to 18% in 2021, making it the province with the largest investment in lithium projects [8] Market Trends - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of 53.13% for lithium iron phosphate materials from 2022 to 2025 [16] - Sichuan's lithium battery production is projected to reach 165 GWh by 2024, increasing its national market share from one-sixth to one-fifth [10] - The establishment of a comprehensive lithium battery industry chain in Sichuan is anticipated to generate over 500 billion yuan in output value by 2025 [10] Regional Dynamics - The lithium industry in Sichuan is evolving into a collaborative ecosystem, with cities like Suining and Yibin leading in lithium resource processing and battery production, respectively [12][13] - Suining has become a hub for lithium salt production, while Yibin has rapidly developed a complete battery manufacturing ecosystem, significantly boosting local GDP contributions [15] - The provincial government is promoting new exploration strategies to enhance lithium resource supply, focusing on high-quality mining and technological advancements [18] Challenges and Solutions - Despite the growth, challenges such as high extraction costs, environmental regulations, and low-grade resources persist, necessitating strategic measures to ensure domestic supply [16] - The Sichuan government is implementing policies to address structural issues in the lithium industry, aiming to balance low-end and high-end production capacities [18][19]