作者 丨董鹏 对于公司业绩增长，盐湖股份指出，"氯化钾产品价格较上年同期有所上升，碳酸锂产品价格虽波动较大，但下半年逐步回暖，整体带动公司 业绩同比实现增长。" 编辑丨朱益民 近日，盐湖股份（000792.SZ）的2026年盈利预期获得密集上调。 公司近期披露的业绩预告显示， 预计2025年归母净利润为82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比增长77.78%至90.65%，超出此前市场预期 。 业绩预告发布前，卖方对其2026年盈利预期区间为62—82亿元；业绩预告发布后， 卖方盈利预期值则普遍上调至100亿元，光大证券、申万宏 源更是给出了120亿元左右的盈利预期 。 这背后，是潜在的钾、锂行业景气度提升，以及公司本身确定性较强的新增产能投放、资产注入计划。 仅以公司锂盐业务为例，公司去年9月末投产的4万吨盐湖提锂项目有望大规模释放，并且还有五矿盐湖后续并表所带来的0.8万吨权益产能，公 司权益产能有望从2025年的2万吨（未包括4万吨自建项目）提升至6.9万吨，权益产能增速明显大于名义产能增速。 此外，本周碳酸锂现货均价已经升至13.8万元/吨，远月期货合约则是一度逼近15万元/吨，接下来如若锂价出现超预期式上涨 ...

【宏观及行业新闻】 SMM 电池级碳酸锂指数价格 117373 元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 1564 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 11.5- 12.2 万元/吨，均价 11.85 万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 500 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂 11.25-11.85 万元 /吨，均价 11.55 万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 500 元/吨。（上海有色网） | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 120,000 | 460 | -2,760 | 13,180 ...

格隆汇1月4日丨中矿资源(002738.SZ)公布，公司下属全资公司中矿资源（江西）锂业有限公司（简 称"中矿锂业"）投资建设年产3万吨高纯锂盐技改项目已完成建设并取得试生产备案，于2026年1月2日 点火投料试生产运营。本技改项目投产后，公司将合计拥有年产7.1万吨电池级锂盐产能，公司锂盐业 务的综合竞争力进一步增强，能够更好地应对行业变革与市场挑战。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Tianhua New Energy has outlined its lithium battery material production capabilities and future expansion plans in response to market demand for lithium salt products [2] Group 1: Production Capacity - The company's lithium battery material production bases are located in Yibin, Meishan, and Yichun in Sichuan and Jiangxi provinces [2] - The subsidiary Tianyi Lithium Industry in Yibin has an annual production capacity of 75,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide [2] - The subsidiary Sichuan Tianhua in Meishan has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, which can be converted to approximately 55,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate based on market demand [2] - The subsidiary Fengxin New Era in Yichun has an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate [2] Group 2: Future Expansion Plans - The company plans to increase its lithium salt production capacity to reach 250,000 to 260,000 tons per year based on market demand changes [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][16] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a significant increase in net profit driven by rising potassium chloride prices despite a decline in production and sales volume [13][14] - The new lithium carbonate project has successfully entered trial production, enhancing the company's competitive position in the lithium market [14][15] - The controlling shareholder, China Minmetals, has completed a share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term development [15] Financial Projections - Expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 163.76 billion, 179.64 billion, and 190.04 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +8.2%, +9.7%, and +5.8% respectively [5][16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 54.35 billion, 64.74 billion, and 70.85 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of +16.5%, +19.1%, and +9.4% respectively [5][16] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.03, 1.22, and 1.34 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][16] Recent Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 111.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +6.34%, while net profit was 45.03 billion yuan, up +43.34% [13] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 43.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.81% increase year-on-year, and net profit surged by 113.97% to 19.88 billion yuan [13] Market Position - The company has a total share capital of 5,292 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately 125.41 billion yuan [8] - The current stock price is 23.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.1 for 2025 [8][16]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries (09696.HK) has successfully produced its first bag of battery-grade lithium hydroxide from its Jiangsu Zhangjiagang project, which has an annual capacity of 30,000 tons, marking a significant milestone for the company [1] Group 1: Project Development - The first bag of battery-grade lithium hydroxide product passed internal laboratory sampling checks and confirmed compliance with battery-grade standards as of October 17, 2025 [1] - The company will continue to fine-tune and optimize the project to achieve stable continuous production and flexible switching to lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The successful production of the first bag of battery-grade lithium hydroxide lays the foundation for subsequent continuous mass production at the factory [1] - After achieving stable production, the product will be provided to various customers for quality certification, with capacity gradually increasing to meet design capacity [1] Group 3: Financial Impact - The production of the first bag of battery-grade lithium hydroxide will not have a significant impact on the company's current financial status and operating results [1] - The project will further expand the company's lithium salt processing capacity, enhancing profitability and the stability of profit growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.423 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 136 million yuan, an increase of 32.87% year-on-year [1]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to falling prices, with revenue declining by 26.28% to 1.764 billion yuan, resulting in a net loss of 127 million yuan [2]. - The company is expanding its self-owned mining capacity, with the Zimbabwe Kamativi lithium mine expected to produce 280,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025, significantly reducing lithium salt costs [3]. - The company is also increasing its lithium salt production capacity, with a total expected capacity of 130,000 tons by the end of 2025 [3]. - The overseas mining service business is seen as a new growth point, with a 25.06% year-on-year increase in revenue from blasting and mining services [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.423 billion yuan, down 13.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 136 million yuan, up 32.87% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.886 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year but an increase of 22.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Segments - Lithium Business: Revenue decreased by 26.28% to 1.764 billion yuan, with a net loss of 127 million yuan due to falling lithium prices [2]. - Explosives Business: Revenue increased by 3.7% to 1.465 billion yuan, with a net profit of 253 million yuan, supported by export growth and increased market share in the Sichuan region [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of 610 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.39 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 17, and 12 times based on the closing price on August 20 [3][5].

Summary of Salt Lake Co. Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Salt Lake Co. (盐湖股份) - **Industry**: Potash and Lithium Production Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production and Sales Performance**: In the first and second quarters of 2025, the production and sales of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate met expectations, with potassium chloride costs around 1,000-1,200 RMB/ton and lithium carbonate costs below 40,000 RMB/ton after tax, both showing global cost advantages [2][4][8] 2. **Strategic Development Goals**: Following the acquisition by China Minmetals Corporation, Salt Lake Co. is aligning its management model with central state-owned enterprises, aiming for a production capacity of 10 million tons of potash fertilizer, 200,000 tons of lithium salt, and 30,000 tons of magnesium-based materials by 2030 [2][6] 3. **Potash Business Strategy**: The company is focusing on an "outbound potash" strategy, planning to acquire potash projects in Canada and Spain, currently undergoing resource evaluation and technical verification [2][7][10] 4. **Lithium Business Focus**: Salt Lake Co. aims to resolve industry competition issues before pursuing acquisitions of quality lithium salt mines in regions like Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang to expand lithium salt production capacity [2][7] 5. **Market Outlook for Potash**: The company is optimistic about the future of potassium chloride due to increasing global food demand and China's high dependence on imports, with geopolitical tensions affecting supply [2][9] 6. **Lithium Price Trends**: In Q2 2025, industrial-grade lithium prices fell below 60,000 RMB/ton, while battery-grade prices remained between 60,000 and 62,000 RMB/ton, with expectations that prices are nearing the bottom due to Salt Lake's cost advantages [5][11] 7. **Dividend and Stock Buyback Plans**: The company has a willingness to distribute dividends but is currently constrained by negative retained earnings and unclear regulations. It is also considering stock buybacks, with plans to be announced based on capital expenditure and operational conditions [5][13][14] 8. **Management and Incentive Changes**: Post-acquisition by Minmetals, the company's management and incentive mechanisms are evolving to align with central state-owned enterprise standards, including a new market value management system [6][15] 9. **Capital Expenditure Plans**: Future capital expenditures will focus on normal operations and potential investments in overseas potash projects, particularly in Canada and Spain, which are expected to require significant funding [16][18] 10. **Project Development Timeline**: The Canadian and Spanish potash projects are still in the preliminary assessment phase, with further analysis pending feasibility reports before moving to construction planning [19] 11. **Current Production and Inventory Status**: The company is operating at full production and sales capacity for both potash and lithium, maintaining a regulated inventory level of 500,000 tons for state reserves [23][24] Additional Important Information - **Geopolitical Risks**: The concentration of major potash producers in countries like Russia, Belarus, and Canada poses supply risks for China, which relies heavily on imports [9] - **Future Project Considerations**: The company remains open to exploring other overseas mineral projects in regions like Congo and Southeast Asia, contingent on the quality of potential targets [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongmin Resources (002738) announced a comprehensive technological upgrade and transformation of its subsidiary Zhongmin Lithium's lithium salt production line, with a total investment of 121 million yuan [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project aims to upgrade the existing lithium salt production line with an annual capacity of 25,000 tons to a new high-purity lithium salt project with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons [1] - The funding for the project will come from Zhongmin Lithium's own funds or self-raised funds [1] - The expected duration for the shutdown and technical upgrade is approximately 6 months [1] Group 2: Environmental and Technical Standards - The production process technology level, energy consumption, and raw material consumption will meet the advanced standards of similar domestic facilities [1] - The pollutant emissions from the project will comply with national relevant standards [1] Group 3: Capacity and Competitive Advantage - Upon completion, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery-grade lithium salt [1] - The comprehensive competitiveness of the company's lithium salt business will be further enhanced [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 7.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 0.26 billion, showing a significant increase of 539.6% [1][5]. - The stable contribution from the civil explosives business is noted, while the lithium salt business is impacted by falling lithium prices [2][3]. - The company has significant potential with its own lithium mining capacity expected to ramp up, alongside ongoing expansion in lithium salt production [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.2 billion, down 35.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.6 billion, up 539.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 17.9 billion, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.0 billion, showing a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 15.4 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased to 0.8 billion, up 446.7% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The civil explosives business generated revenue of 32.6 billion in 2024, a decline of 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 23.5% [2]. - Lithium salt sales volume in 2024 reached 48,000 tons, up 63.4% year-on-year, but revenue fell to 41.2 billion, down 50.4% due to price declines [2]. Growth Potential - The company has established its own lithium mining operations in Zimbabwe and Namibia, with significant production capacity expected to come online [3]. - The lithium salt production capacity is projected to expand to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with key customers including Tesla and CATL [3]. - The overseas mining service business is anticipated to grow, leveraging cost advantages in civil explosives [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.5 billion for 2025, 8.5 billion for 2026, and 10.6 billion for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 15, and 12 [5][9].