01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 宏观情绪转暖， 锌锭延续宽松 锌周报 2025/11/29 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪锌指数收涨0.04%至22436元/吨，单边交易总持仓18.89万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌9至 3037美元/吨，总持仓22.24万手。SMM0#锌锭均价22370元/吨，上海基差50元/吨，天津基差-10元/吨，广东基差-15元/吨，沪粤 价差65元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据上海有色数据，国内社会库存小幅去库至15.10万吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得6.76万吨，内盘上海地区基差50元/ 吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-40元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得5.08万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得0.55万吨。外盘cash-3S合 约基差165.44美元/吨，3-15价差30美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.046， ...

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-11-25 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 需采购为主，氛围有所回暖，现货升水回升，国内库存小幅下降；LME锌库存回升，但现货升水高位。技 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 术面，持仓减量价格调整，多空交投谨慎，关注MA60支撑。观点参考：预计沪锌震荡调整，关注2.23-2.26 免责声明 。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing as the profits of smelters are further repaired, production enthusiasm is increasing, new capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production. Meanwhile, the import loss is expanding, leading to a decline in imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased year - on - year, and the overall trading volume is dull with continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and a decline in spot premiums. The overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downwards, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusted at a low position of holdings and has fallen below the MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc is 22,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai Zinc is 216,150 lots, up 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 5,980 lots, down 2,348 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, down 250 tons; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, up 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, down 3,650 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 95 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 114,900 tons, up 4,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.13%, down 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.13%, down 1.32 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 5.1%, down 0.28 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 13.35%, up 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 achievements. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price and disorderly competition [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - Zinc prices are weakly operating. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and due to enterprises' previous low - price purchases, the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, resulting in a rise in domestic social inventories while overseas continues to destock. Technically, the reduction in positions indicates a weakening of short - selling forces. Attention should be paid to the support at the 21,800 mark and the pressure of MA10. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 21,865 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,643.5 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,737 lots, down 230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,348 lots, down 5,084 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 8,595 tons, down 1,094 tons. The SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons, and the LME inventory is 128,250 tons, down 625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,650 yuan/ton, down 690 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is 125 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 30.04 dollars/ton, down 2.03 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons. ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons, and the export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles, and the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 15.62%, down 2.81%, and that of put options is 15.62%, down 2.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.88%, up 0.09%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.26%, up 0.07% [3] 3.7行业消息 - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, the fourth consecutive meeting on hold, in line with market expectations. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025 and only one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026, compared with the previous prediction of two cuts. Premier Li Qiang emphasized innovation - driven development, expanding effective demand, and promoting high - quality economic development during a research trip in Jiangsu [3]

Core View Positive Factors - Social inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons compared to last week. Downstream restocking at low prices drove the spot premium to remain stable, providing temporary support for demand [3]. - The spot price increased by 0.72% daily, and the basis premium widened to 138 yuan/ton, indicating a strong spot market [3]. Negative Factors - Mine supply is gradually recovering, with sufficient import volumes, and the market remains in an oversupply situation [3]. - Smelting profits are substantial, supply remains high, and there is an expectation of weakening demand in the medium term [3]. Trading Consultation View - It is difficult for the industry to reduce inventory. Furnace restarts in the southwest region may exacerbate the oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - allocation strategy [3]. Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, inventory, and weekly production of galvanized coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips) and die - cast zinc alloys. It also includes data on real estate development investment, sales, land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [5][6][11][13][15][16]. Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, the LME term structure, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [20][21][23][26]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in LME and SHFE [30][32][33][35].