锌锭大幅累库， 产业现状偏弱 锌周报 2026/02/28 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：上周五沪锌指数收涨0.54%至24726元/吨，单边交易总持仓18.6万手。截至上周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌 2.5至3380美元/吨，总持仓23.01万手。SMM0#锌锭均价24450元/吨，上海基差-50元/吨，天津基差-70元/吨，广东基差-125元/ 吨，沪粤价差75元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所锌锭期货库存录得6.97万吨，据钢联数据，2月26日全国主要市场锌锭社会库存为18.04万吨，较2月24日增加 0.61万吨。内盘上海地区基差-50元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-180元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得9.84万吨，LME锌锭注 销仓单录得0.75万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-16.97美元/吨，3-15价差40 ...

Report Core View Bullish Factors - The losses of smelters have widened, and the supply pressure has significantly decreased month-on-month, which is bullish [3]. - Although the import window is closed, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been repaired, which is bullish [3]. Bearish Factors - The import volume of zinc ore has declined, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, which may lead to production cuts, which is bearish [3]. - The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, indicating a loose global supply, which is bearish [3]. Trading Advice - It is advisable to wait and see. The ratio of futures to spot has rebounded, and the export window may close again, so caution is needed [3]. Grouped Summaries Processing and End - demand - Included data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly output, net exports of galvanized sheets, net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, real estate development investment, sales and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][7][10] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Included data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, zinc concentrate TC, monthly zinc ingot production, production profit and processing fee of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in exchanges [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Included data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and the basis of zinc ingots [27][28][29]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Sentiment Warms Up, Zinc Ingot Supply Remains Loose - Zinc Weekly Report 2025/11/29" [1] - Analyst: Zhang Shijiao from the Non - ferrous Metals Group [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current weak situation of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectation, which greatly reduces the attractiveness of zinc to speculative funds. The total position of SHFE zinc weighting has reached a new low since March 2025. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range oscillation in the short term [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.04% at 22,436 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 188,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S fell 9 to 3,037 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 222,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,370 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 50 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 65 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [11] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 61 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The content mainly presents multiple macro - economic charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt ratio, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][16][19][20] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 3.5%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,340,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1% [25] - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,023,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [27] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2% [33] - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,967,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5,804,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 33,100 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 138,900 tons [55] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [63] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [64] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [67]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will experience oscillatory adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The zinc market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - side constraints and demand - side fluctuations. The market is expected to gradually shift towards net exports, and the overall trading atmosphere has shown signs of improvement [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,003 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars [3]. - The 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 190,891 lots, down 2,396 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 7,620 lots, down 105 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 47,425 tons, up 100 tons [3]. b) Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 140.2 dollars/ton, up 5.11 dollars [3]. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,630 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. c) Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. d) Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory (weekly) is 161,900 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [3]. e) Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. f) Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 3.08%, down 8.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 1.29%, down 10.42 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 11.21%, down 0.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.03%, down 0.18 percentage points [3]. g) Industry News - The potential candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, is mainly concerned about the labor market and advocates a rate cut in December; San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, also supports a rate cut in December due to concerns about a sudden deterioration in the labor market [3]. - The Chinese President had a phone call with the US President, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation hurts both" and the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis [3]. - From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, continuing the recovery trend. As of the end of October, the national solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a 43.8% year - on - year increase. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, a 30.4% month - on - month increase [3]. h) Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stocking up for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc production is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected [3]. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have been lackluster, with the real estate sector being a drag. Policy support in the automobile and home appliance sectors has brought some highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on dips, the atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has rebounded, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have increased, but the spot premium remains high [3]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted. Both bulls and bears are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support of the MA60 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing as the profits of smelters are further repaired, production enthusiasm is increasing, new capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production. Meanwhile, the import loss is expanding, leading to a decline in imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased year - on - year, and the overall trading volume is dull with continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and a decline in spot premiums. The overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downwards, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusted at a low position of holdings and has fallen below the MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc is 22,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai Zinc is 216,150 lots, up 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 5,980 lots, down 2,348 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, down 250 tons; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, up 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, down 3,650 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 95 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 114,900 tons, up 4,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.13%, down 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.13%, down 1.32 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 5.1%, down 0.28 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 13.35%, up 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 achievements. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price and disorderly competition [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - Zinc prices are weakly operating. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and due to enterprises' previous low - price purchases, the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, resulting in a rise in domestic social inventories while overseas continues to destock. Technically, the reduction in positions indicates a weakening of short - selling forces. Attention should be paid to the support at the 21,800 mark and the pressure of MA10. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 21,865 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,643.5 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,737 lots, down 230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,348 lots, down 5,084 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 8,595 tons, down 1,094 tons. The SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons, and the LME inventory is 128,250 tons, down 625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,650 yuan/ton, down 690 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is 125 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 30.04 dollars/ton, down 2.03 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons. ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons, and the export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles, and the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 15.62%, down 2.81%, and that of put options is 15.62%, down 2.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.88%, up 0.09%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.26%, up 0.07% [3] 3.7行业消息 - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, the fourth consecutive meeting on hold, in line with market expectations. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025 and only one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026, compared with the previous prediction of two cuts. Premier Li Qiang emphasized innovation - driven development, expanding effective demand, and promoting high - quality economic development during a research trip in Jiangsu [3]

Core View Positive Factors - Social inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons compared to last week. Downstream restocking at low prices drove the spot premium to remain stable, providing temporary support for demand [3]. - The spot price increased by 0.72% daily, and the basis premium widened to 138 yuan/ton, indicating a strong spot market [3]. Negative Factors - Mine supply is gradually recovering, with sufficient import volumes, and the market remains in an oversupply situation [3]. - Smelting profits are substantial, supply remains high, and there is an expectation of weakening demand in the medium term [3]. Trading Consultation View - It is difficult for the industry to reduce inventory. Furnace restarts in the southwest region may exacerbate the oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - allocation strategy [3]. Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, inventory, and weekly production of galvanized coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips) and die - cast zinc alloys. It also includes data on real estate development investment, sales, land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [5][6][11][13][15][16]. Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, the LME term structure, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [20][21][23][26]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in LME and SHFE [30][32][33][35].