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铅锌日评:区间整理-20250801
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market 3.1.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract dropped by 0.92% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.13%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.21% [1] 3.1.2 Market Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a slight decline in production due to equipment maintenance last week [1] - The price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some refineries reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, but the acceptance of recycled lead prices has improved, and the start - up rate is gradually recovering [1] - On the demand side, overall supply and demand are increasing, and there are no obvious contradictions in the lead market. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices [1] 3.1.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.2 Zinc Market 3.2.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 1.68% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract dropped by 1.43% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.20%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.24% [1] 3.2.2 Market Fundamentals - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,800 yuan/ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased [1] - The cost support at the raw material end has weakened, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1] - During the week, zinc prices continued to rise, and downstream off - season purchases significantly decreased [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate [1] 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.3 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Heavy Metal Environmental Safety Hidden Danger Investigation and Rectification Action Plan (2025 - 2030)", focusing on 5 provinces (autonomous regions) and 21 cities (prefectures) [1] - A recycled lead smelter in the northwest plans to stop production due to multiple factors such as market downturn, raw material shortage, and water use restrictions [1] - Starting from July 31, 2025, certain products can be used for the performance and delivery of the zinc ingot futures contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The zinc ore tender price of a mine in the southwest in August is about 4,000 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of about 200 yuan/metal ton [1]
有色金属周报(锌):高锌价抑制消费,沪锌社库累库预期缓慢兑现-20250707
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 09:06
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].
锌价 继续区间整理
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-20 01:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that zinc prices have started to decline due to the gradual recovery of zinc mine supply, with main contracts falling to 22,000-23,000 yuan/ton, and are expected to stabilize in a weak oscillation pattern within the range of 22,300-23,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 2 - Zinc mine supply is gradually recovering, with major projects like Antamina, Kipushi, and Tara resuming production. Compared to 2024, zinc mine supply is improving on a month-on-month basis [2] - Domestic zinc smelting profits have improved significantly, with processing fees rising from 1,800 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, leading to a shift from losses of 100-200 yuan per ton to profits of 700-800 yuan per ton [2] - Two major domestic zinc smelting projects, Yunnan Copper relocation and Wanyang Zinc Smelting, began production in May, with plans to achieve stable output by June, indicating a potential high output level in the third quarter [3] Group 3 - The export policy remains unclear, with approximately 7% of zinc consumption used for exports of primary products and another 4% through industrial finished products. In April, domestic zinc consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 12%, but in May, many downstream companies reported a wait-and-see attitude from overseas clients [4] - High inventory levels among downstream enterprises after two rounds of concentrated restocking may suppress future consumption, despite the clear upward trend in supply growth and improved profitability in the smelting sector [4]