有色金属周报(铅) 供需僵持，铅价区间整理 2025年8月19日 宏源期货研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。当前国产矿报价相对稳定，但 | | | | | 富含金银的铅精矿及高银含量的银铅矿TC仍有下行压力； | | | | | 进口矿方面，TC再度下调，部分供应商TC报价在-100至 | | | | | 80美元/干吨，但实际成交价多集中在-60至-70美元/干吨 | | | | | 附近，炼厂采购更加倾向国产矿。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：由于终端消费不佳，废电瓶回收量有限， | 原生铅开工逐步回升，再生铅供给 | | | | 废电瓶价格略有松动，但依旧坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：前期检修的原生铅炼厂有所恢复，开工回升；再 | 因环保、亏损等因素，开工偏弱， | | | | 生铅方面，受成本倒挂及原料限制因素影响，开工偏弱。 | 需求端传统旺季尚未兑现， ...

Report Basic Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - No prominent contradictions, lead prices mainly range-bound [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply of lead concentrates remains tight, and the TC of lead concentrates rich in gold and silver and silver-lead ore with high silver content still has downward pressure; the price of scrap batteries is slightly loose but still firm [3] - The production of primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased; in the secondary lead sector, affected by sewage inspections in Anhui and tight raw materials, the operating rate of some smelters has declined, and the supply has tightened regionally [3] - The demand side is cautious in purchasing. Terminal consumption is average, and electric bicycle dealers stocked up a lot in July, so they are currently consuming inventory. The price increase atmosphere in the wholesale market has faded [3] - The price of secondary lead is inverted with that of electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with high cost performance. As the production of electrolytic lead recovers, factory inventories accumulate while social inventories decline. Considering the transfer of futures deliveries, social inventories may accumulate again later [3] - It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.06% to 16,725 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.66% to 16,845 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic board) increased by 1.49% to 2,003.5 US dollars/ton [14] 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported lead concentrates decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to -65 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weak trend [30] - As of August 8, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market circulation of scrap batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm [46] 3.3 Supply Side - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased by 3.3 percentage points to 67.4%. The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered for settlement was 52,775 tons in the week of August 8, an increase of 4,100 tons compared to the week of August 1 [31][36] - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 41.1%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 46,600 tons, a decrease from the previous week [56] 3.4 Demand Side - The operating rate of lead-acid battery manufacturers decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 65.25%. High-temperature holidays in battery enterprises in Hebei, Zhejiang and other regions led to a significant decline in overall production [64] 3.5 Import and Export - As of August 1, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the import profit was -694.14 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77] 3.6 Inventory - As of August 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,100 tons, a decrease in inventory. Due to downstream buyers' caution and the transfer of lead ingots before delivery, social inventories decreased slightly while factory inventories accumulated [88] - As of August 8, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, a decrease from the previous period; LME inventory was 265,800 tons, also a decrease [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market 3.1.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract dropped by 0.92% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.13%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.21% [1] 3.1.2 Market Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a slight decline in production due to equipment maintenance last week [1] - The price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some refineries reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, but the acceptance of recycled lead prices has improved, and the start - up rate is gradually recovering [1] - On the demand side, overall supply and demand are increasing, and there are no obvious contradictions in the lead market. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices [1] 3.1.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.2 Zinc Market 3.2.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 1.68% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract dropped by 1.43% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.20%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.24% [1] 3.2.2 Market Fundamentals - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,800 yuan/ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased [1] - The cost support at the raw material end has weakened, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1] - During the week, zinc prices continued to rise, and downstream off - season purchases significantly decreased [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate [1] 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.3 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Heavy Metal Environmental Safety Hidden Danger Investigation and Rectification Action Plan (2025 - 2030)", focusing on 5 provinces (autonomous regions) and 21 cities (prefectures) [1] - A recycled lead smelter in the northwest plans to stop production due to multiple factors such as market downturn, raw material shortage, and water use restrictions [1] - Starting from July 31, 2025, certain products can be used for the performance and delivery of the zinc ingot futures contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The zinc ore tender price of a mine in the southwest in August is about 4,000 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of about 200 yuan/metal ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The lead market currently has no prominent contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. The supply side shows an incremental trend with the expected resumption of production of primary lead and the slow recovery of recycled lead production. The market still has expectations for the downstream consumption peak season. As the lead price drops, the downstream hedging sentiment eases, and procurement may improve. The short - term lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.30% to 16,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.80% to 16,955 yuan/ton, and the London lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.45% to 2,020.5 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: Relevant data shows the historical basis situation from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis of the current basis situation is provided [12]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 18, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 74.6 yuan/ton [25]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 63.37% month - on - month. Some smelters in Henan are under regular maintenance, and a smelter in North China has resumed production but not at full capacity. Some smelters in Central and East China have future maintenance plans. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in some regions has changed, with the total output increasing from 45,215 tons in the week of July 18 to 48,375 tons this week [26][33]. - **Recycled Lead**: The average price of waste batteries remained flat at 10,250 yuan/ton as of July 25. The scrap peak season has not started, and the arrival of waste batteries is still tight. The losses of recycled lead smelters fluctuated slightly. As of July 28, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 481 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 706 yuan/ton. The raw material and finished product inventories of recycled lead decreased. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 2.8 percentage points to 40.7%, and the weekly output recovered to 4.24 tons as of last Friday [40][46][49][50]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased by 0.9 percentage points to 71.86%. As the traditional peak season approaches, the production enthusiasm of electric bicycles has improved, with some enterprises' operating rates reaching about 90%. The operating rate of automotive batteries is around 70 - 80% due to weak domestic terminals and the impact of tariffs on some export orders [56]. 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of July 18, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the import profit was - 834.57 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [66]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 7.14 tons, showing an increase. Downstream procurement is mainly from primary lead smelters, and the inventory of mainstream smelters has decreased, but social inventory has increased [76]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 6.33 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the LME inventory was 26.63 tons, showing a slight decrease [79]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from April 2024 to June 2025 [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. Considering the strong support from the raw material side, it is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro - factors on the lead price [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,925 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.27% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.94% to 2,017 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific summary was made in the content, only historical basis data trends were presented [13][14][15]. 2. Raw Materials and Primary Lead - **Raw Materials**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrates is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 4, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 82.7 yuan/ton [29]. - **Primary Lead Production**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.88%. A refinery in Henan reduced its weekly output due to equipment failure and is expected to resume normal production this week. A refinery in North China is expected to end maintenance and resume production in mid - to - late July. Another smelter in East China plans a long - term maintenance in the fourth quarter [30][34]. - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total annual production capacity is 3.29 million tons, the monthly production capacity is 260,000 tons, and the weekly production capacity is 63,300 tons. The total output in the week of July 4 was 49,065 tons, in the week of July 11 was 47,815 tons, and this week's expected output is 49,065 tons [35]. 3. Recycled Lead - **Waste Battery Price**: As of July 11, the average price of waste batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The tight supply of waste batteries has not improved, and the purchase price has not changed significantly [43]. - **Recycled Lead Smelter Profit**: As of July 11, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 408 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 636 yuan/ton [49]. - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: As of July 10, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The raw material inventory was 126,500 tons, and the finished product inventory was 22,400 tons [53]. - **Recycled Lead Operating Rate**: The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.70 percentage points to 35.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of recycled lead was 37,000 tons, showing a decline. A refinery in Anhui that was under maintenance has recently restarted the furnace but has not yet produced lead. A refinery in Inner Mongolia has no plan to resume production in the near future, and the operating rate fluctuates slightly [54]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 70.76%. The domestic electric bicycle and battery markets have not improved significantly. Dealers are mainly consuming inventory, and enterprise orders are weak. The export pressure of lead batteries is increasing as the US tariff suspension period is about to end [59]. 5. Import and Export - As of July 4, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of July 11, the import profit was - 741.56 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [64]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 63,400 tons, showing an increase. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, and inventory has accumulated due to the large spot - futures price difference [75]. - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of July 11, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 55,100 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 249,400 tons, showing a decrease [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from January 2024 to May 2025 [79].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Fundamental Remains Unchanged, Lead Price Maintains Range-bound Consolidation [1] - Report Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, some primary lead smelters have routine maintenance plans, and the start - up of secondary lead smelters is highly uncertain due to raw material issues. The demand side is also in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation in the lead market. It is expected that the price will maintain range - bound consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on lead prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots increased by 1.67% week - on - week to 16,775 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.98% to 16,945 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.94% to 1,992.5 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Primary Lead - **2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Unchanged, TC Stable**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of June 6, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 46.7 yuan/ton [25][31] - **2.2 Primary Lead Start - up Rate Increased to 70.79%**: Some regional smelters are about to enter the maintenance period, which may have a certain impact on production [32][36] - **2.3 Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelting Enterprises**: The total expected output this week is 50,185 tons, a decrease from the previous week. Some enterprises in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are expected to have routine maintenance [38] 3. Secondary Lead - **3.1 Scrap Battery Price Firm**: As of June 13, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of scrap batteries has not improved. The losses of secondary lead smelters have narrowed slightly. As of June 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 393 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 614 yuan/ton [43][46][51] - **3.2 Secondary Lead Raw Material Inventory Decreased, Finished Product Inventory Increased**: As of June 13, the secondary lead raw material inventory was 128,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 25,000 tons. Considering price and quality factors, downstream buyers mostly purchase primary lead. The secondary lead factory inventory has continued to accumulate [53][55] - **3.3 Secondary Lead Start - up Rate Declined**: The secondary lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% week - on - week. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 35,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters in multiple regions have reduced production or intermittently shut down for heat preservation [56] 4. Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% week - on - week. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the start - up of lead batteries has returned to normal, and the increase mainly comes from the electric bicycle and automotive lead battery sectors [60][62] 5. Import and Export - As of June 6, the refined lead export loss was about 2,500 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the import profit was - 548.86 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67][72] 6. Social Inventory - **6.1 Domestic Social Inventory Increased**: As of June 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 54,700 tons, showing an increase. The inventory continued to rise due to the widening of the spot - futures price difference and the delivery and position transfer of holders [76][80] - **6.2 SHFE Inventory Increased, LME Inventory Decreased**: As of June 13, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase; the LME inventory was 265,000 tons, showing a decrease [83][85] - **6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance situation has fluctuated in different months, with inventory changes also varying [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the resumption of production of secondary lead is highly uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is continuously accumulating, which drags down the lead price. However, considering that both lead concentrates and waste batteries are in a tight supply pattern, there is also strong support below the lead price. In the short term, the lead price will maintain a range - bound movement, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.76% month - on - month to 16,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.96% to 16,780 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of LME lead increased by 0.51% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 600 yuan/metal ton month - on - month, while the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton to - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply expectation of lead concentrates remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of May 30, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [31]. - As of June 6, the average price of waste batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of waste batteries remains unchanged, but secondary lead smelters are still in a loss - making situation. The comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 502 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 720 yuan/ton [46][53]. 3.3 Supply Situation - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.46% month - on - month. Some smelters increased production and postponed maintenance, leading to an increase in the operating rate of primary lead smelters. The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 51,485 tons [32][38]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 36.2% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters reduced production or intermittently shut down the furnace for heat preservation. The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [59]. 3.4 Demand Situation - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 10.1 percentage points to 60.39% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season of consumption, some downstream enterprises reduced inventory pressure by extending holidays and reducing production, especially electric bicycle enterprises, which led to a decline in the operating rate of the sector [65]. 3.5 Import and Export Situation - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of June 6, the import profit was - 745.19 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [75]. 3.6 Inventory Situation - As of June 5, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 53,900 tons, showing an increase. The spread between the spot and futures prices widened, and holders were more willing to deliver and transfer positions, resulting in inventory accumulation. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase [84]. - As of June 6, the inventory of SHFE refined lead increased to 47,900 tons, while the LME inventory decreased to 281,300 tons [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price as the global lead concentrate supply has long - term incremental expectations but short - term uncertainties, and the supply of scrap batteries is tight [3]. - On the supply side, primary lead supply is stable with a slight increase due to the resumption of previously - shut - down refineries, while secondary lead production cuts are expanding because of raw material shortages and high costs [3]. - The demand side is in the off - season, with battery distributors and producers being cautious in lead ingot purchases, and spot transactions moving towards discount trading [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, secondary lead producers hold back goods or quote high due to cost pressures, and inventory accumulation may slow down as production cuts expand. Primary lead holders actively sell [3]. - In the short term, the lead price is expected to remain range - bound between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials and the macro - environment on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.89% to 16,625 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.53% to 16,805 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.54% to 1,981.5 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of April 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues) was - 37.48 yuan/ton [32]. - The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 67.35%. Some refineries have maintenance plans [33][39]. - The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 49,995 tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period [40]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials, Further Expansion of Secondary Lead Production Cuts - As of May 9, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous period. The supply of scrap batteries was tight, and the procurement prices of secondary lead refineries were high [48]. - As of May 9, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 653 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 878 yuan/ton [54]. - As of May 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 105,900 tons, and the finished product inventory was 17,400 tons. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [58]. - The secondary lead operating rate decreased by 4.81 percentage points to 37.65%. The weekly output decreased, and some refineries were forced to shut down due to raw material shortages [61]. 3.4 Post - holiday Resumption of Work and Production, Off - season Situation Remains Unchanged - The lead battery operating rate increased by 9.73 percentage points to 64.79%. After the May Day holiday, battery enterprises resumed work, but the off - season situation continued, and new orders were weak [71]. 3.5 Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of April 30, the refined lead export loss was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the import profit was - 623.9 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [83]. 3.6 Social Inventory Accumulation - As of May 8, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 47,500 tons, an increase in inventory. Weak demand and the expansion of the futures - spot price difference led to an increase in the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse [89]. - As of May 9, SHFE refined lead inventory increased to 49,500 tons, and LME inventory decreased to 253,400 tons [92]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of lead from February 2024 to March 2025 [93].