Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the zinc concentrate mining sector has largely materialized, with the treatment charge (TC) continuing to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue [3][50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge [3]. - The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term. In the short run, low inventory provides some support, but weak demand restricts upward movement. In the long run, with increased supply and limited demand growth, the zinc price may face pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In March 2025, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 23,700 tons. The first three months of 2025 saw a global supply surplus of 143,000 tons, slightly lower than the 148,000 tons surplus in the same period last year [12]. - In Q1 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 2.9021 million tons, a 9.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.99% increase year - on - year. Global refined zinc production was 3.278 million tons, a 2.32% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.55% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3.2 Glencore - Glencore's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93 - 990,000 tons, consistent with the initial expectation. Q1 production was 213,600 tons, a 18.29% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.89% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Antamina and the Australian region [19]. 3.3 Teck - Teck's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 525,000 - 575,000 tons. Q1 production was 177,300 tons, a 6.19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14.08% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the Red Dog mine [22]. 3.4 Boliden - In Q1 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate production was 57,900 tons, a 38.95% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 45.78% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from the复产 of the Tara mine [24]. 3.5 Vedanta - In Q1 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate production was 264,000 tons, a 5.60% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 4.35% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Gamsberg, partially offset by the reduction at Black Mountain Mine [27]. 3.6 Nexa - Nexa's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 311,000 - 351,000 tons. Q1 production was 67,300 tons, an 8.44% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 22.82% decrease year - on - year. Except for Cerro Lindo, zinc production at other mines declined [31]. 3.7 MMG - MMG's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 215,000 - 240,000 tons. Q1 production was 51,800 tons, a 19.02% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 12.65% decrease year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - Newmont's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 236,000 tons. Q1 production was 59,000 tons, a 23.38% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.42% increase year - on - year [38]. 3.9 BHP - BHP's fiscal 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 90,000 - 110,000 tons. Q1 production was 26,000 tons, a 14.19% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 41.38% increase year - on - year [40]. 3.10 Lundin Mining - In Q1 2025, Lundin Mining's zinc concentrate production was 48,900 tons, a 5.77% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 7.14% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.11 South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's zinc concentrate production was 11,000 tons, a 1.85% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23.08% decrease year - on - year. The production guidance for the Cannington mine in fiscal 2025 was lowered to 45,000 tons [43]. 3.12 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In Q1 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production was 39,400 tons, an 8.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 49.40% increase year - on - year. The full - load operation of the Buenavista zinc concentrator contributed to the increase [44]. 3.13 Industrials Pelones - In Q1 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate production was 57,700 tons, a 5.65% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 13.86% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the closure of the Tizapa mine and the depletion of the San Julian mine [45]. 3.14 Fresnillo plc - Fresnillo plc's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93,000 - 103,000 tons. Q1 production was 25,200 tons, a 12.79% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.47% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from lower ore grades at Fresnillo and Cienega and the shutdown of the San Julian mine [47]. 3.15 Kaz Mineral - In Q1 2025, Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate production was 9,300 tons, a 19.13% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 11.43% decrease year - on - year, despite the highest quarterly throughput of ore [50]. 3.16 Market Outlook - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the mining sector has materialized, and the TC continues to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue. The TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates has increased [50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge. The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market's restocking enthusiasm is low before the Dragon Boat Festival. Strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may face a test in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is flat at 22,830 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is down 10 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 15 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is flat at 22,840 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 184,818 lots, an increase of 22,593 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 3,627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 22,530 yuan/ton and the lowest 22,225 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 75,000 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of May 29, 2025, the LME zinc inventory is 141,375 tons, a decrease of 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Traders continue to hold up prices, and the spot premium rises. The absolute price fluctuates, which does not meet the downstream's psychological expectations, so the pre - festival restocking enthusiasm is poor [3] - **Supply**: A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance due to an accident, and the specific resumption time is undetermined, which caused the zinc price to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacks continuous power. The overseas mine output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The TC in June will continue to rise, and smelting still makes a profit at the current TC price, so the supply pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. Consumption may face a test in June. Since the time window for rush - exporting is approaching the end and there is an over - drafting situation, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [3]