新华财经北京8月22日电据日本共同社报道，日本财务省正在协调在2026年度预算申请中列入约30万亿 日元，作为偿付国债本息的"国债费"，预计将超过创历史最高纪录的2025年度原始预算中的28.2179万 亿日元。为了应对长期国债收益率上升的趋势，"国债费"对财政造成压力的局面或将继续。 日本财务省已在协调把用于计算利息支付费的设想利率大致定为年率2.6%，在预算申请阶段计划较上 年度的2.1%大幅上调。作为长期利率指标的新发日本10年期国债收益率今年以来持续上升，在22日的 国债市场上一度升至1.615%，创约17年来的高位。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Long-term government bond yields in China have been declining, with the 30-year yield falling below 2.5%, reflecting expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, while also being influenced by supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a positive long-term outlook on economic growth, asserting that the fundamental economic conditions remain favorable [1]. - Some institutional investors anticipate a moderate recovery in inflation from low levels, which could support an increase in long-term bond yields as nominal rates adjust to inflation [1]. - The bond market in China has made significant progress, ranking second globally in total size, but still requires improvements in market depth and pricing mechanisms [1]. Group 2 - A noticeable reduction in government bond supply this year may have contributed to the short-term divergence between bond yields and economic expectations [2]. - The PBOC's strong counter-cyclical monetary policy has created a favorable liquidity environment for the stable operation of the bond market [2]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" situation, leading to a potential rebound in long-term bond yields [2]. Group 3 - The PBOC's engagement in secondary market bond trading serves as a liquidity management tool and a reserve for monetary policy [3]. - China's bond market ranks third globally, with improved liquidity facilitating the PBOC's operations in the secondary market [3]. - Unlike developed economies that resorted to large-scale bond purchases for monetary policy goals, China continues to implement normal monetary policy, distinguishing its approach from quantitative easing (QE) practices [3].

Group 1 - Long-term government bond yields have been on a downward trend, with the 10-year bond yield closing at 2.2727% on April 24, showing a significant rebound from the previous day, but overall remaining below 2.3% since April 2 [1] - The 30-year bond yield also closed at 2.4791% on April 24, reflecting a similar pattern of decline, remaining below 2.5% since March 18 [1] - The decline in long-term bond yields is attributed to increased demand for ultra-long bonds amid expectations of a bull market in bonds, leading to a sustained downward trend in yields [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China indicated that long-term bond yields reflect expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, but are also influenced by supply and demand factors [2] - Economic fundamentals remain strong, with the GDP for the first quarter reported at 29.6299 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" situation, potentially leading to a rebound in long-term bond yields [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance plans to coordinate the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds based on project allocation and market demand, ensuring a reasonable match between bond terms and project timelines [3] - Approximately 38,000 special bond projects have been approved for 2024, with a demand of around 5.9 trillion yuan, laying a solid foundation for the issuance of 3.9 trillion yuan in special bonds this year [3] - The anticipated increase in special bond supply and the potential issuance of ultra-long special government bonds may lead to adjustments in the supply-demand dynamics of the bond market [3]