巴克莱：日本执政联盟选举失利引财政政策关注 金十数据7月21日讯，巴克莱经济学家在一份研究报告中指出，日本执政联盟在周日参议院选举中的失 利，将使市场焦点转向财政政策和政治局势演变。经济学家表示："关键在于未来财政扩张计划是否需 要动用超出税收超额收入和其他财源之外的资金，从而引发新国债的发行。"日本财务省不久前刚调整 了国债发行计划，可能难以立即采取诸如国债回购等替代措施。经济学家补充称，长期国债收益率的后 续走势或将影响补充预算案的编制，最终制约大规模支出计划。 ...

分析师：英国长期国债收益率可能进一步上升 金十数据7月16日讯，AJ Bell分析师James Flintoft表示，由于通胀率持续高于英国央行2%的目标，英国 长期国债收益率可能进一步上升。此前数据显示，英国6月年度消费者价格指数通胀率从5月的3.4%意 外攀升至3.6%。Flintoft称，鉴于通胀走高的风险加剧，国债的投资者可能会要求长期债券提供更高的 收益率。 ...

日本超长期国债收益率为何再起？ 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-07-10 7 月上旬，日本超长期国债收益率再起。7 月 8 日，日本 30 年期国债收益率一度上升 12.5 个 基点，达到 3.09%的阶段性高位；40 年期国债收益率亦攀升至 3.36%。为何日债收益率显著上 行？首先，本轮收益率上行的核心在于市场对日本财政前景的重新评估，即将于 7 月 20 日举 行的日本参议院选举成为市场关注焦点。当前执政联盟面临多数席位流失的风险，在野党的政 策主张则更偏向于财政扩张。其次，日本长债收益率的上行还是货币政策变化、通胀上升、财 政和人口结构失衡及外部冲击共同作用的结果。从长期视角看，日本人口老龄化趋势不断深化， 进一步限制财政空间与长期投资需求，对长期国债的稳定配置需求造成不利影响。日本正面临 结构性转型的窗口期，财政与债务结构面临调整，而国际环境的复杂性又可能削弱其缓冲能力， 未来仍面临波动上行风险。后续应主要关注美日关税谈判进展、超长债拍卖情况以及参议院选 举结果。若选举结果削弱执政联盟地位，市场或将重新定价对财政扩张的预期，从而对日本长 期国债收益率构成上行压力。 蒋文斌 国债研究员 从业资格号： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, has noted a significant rise in the yields of ultra-long-term government bonds [1] Group 1 - The recent increase in ultra-long-term government bond yields indicates a shift in the financial landscape in Japan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the current week (June 16 - 20, 2025) and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 6月16日 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May. Forecasts include 3.9% y/y growth in cumulative urban fixed - asset investment from January to May (4.0% in January - April), 5.9% y/y growth in industrial added value of large - scale industries in May (6.1% in April), 5.0% y/y growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in May (5.1% in April), and a surveyed unemployment rate of 5.1% in May (same as April). Lower - than - previous growth rates may suppress the rise of stock index and commodity futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [4]. - The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation [5]. - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report between 18:00 - 21:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [7]. 6月17日 - The US Department of Commerce will release US retail sales for May at 20:30. The expected monthly rate of retail sales is - 0.7% (0.1% previously), and the expected monthly rate of core retail sales is 0.3% (0.1% previously). A lower - than - previous monthly rate of retail sales may help the rise of gold and silver futures but suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [8]. - The Federal Reserve will release US industrial output for May at 21:15. The expected monthly rate of industrial output is 0.1% (0% previously). A slightly higher - than - previous monthly rate may slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals futures but slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [9]. - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report at 16:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [11]. 6月18日 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18 - 19. The theme is "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation, and High - Quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies during the forum [12]. - The US Department of Commerce will release data on new home starts and building permits for May at 20:30. The expected annualized total of new home starts is 1.36 million units (1.361 million previously), and the expected initial annualized total of building permits is 1.43 million units (1.422 million previously) [13]. - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 at 20:30. The expected number is 245,000 (248,000 previously). A slightly lower - than - previous number may slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures and slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [15]. - The EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 22:30. A continued decrease in inventories may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [16]. 6月19日 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. It is expected that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged. Attention should be paid to the economic outlook summary and Powell's speech and their impact on relevant futures prices [17]. - The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 16:30, expected to keep the policy rate at 0.25% [18]. - The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% [19]. 6月20日 - The People's Bank of China will authorize the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce the loan prime rate (LPR) for June 2025 at 09:00. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% (unchanged from the previous value), and the expected 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50% (unchanged from the previous value). If unchanged, the impact on commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures is basically neutral [20]. - Eurostat will release the preliminary consumer confidence index for the eurozone in June at 22:00. The expected preliminary value for May is - 14.05 (- 15.2 previously) [21].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bond yields are rising from a three-week low, with investors closely monitoring the upcoming 40-year bond auction for signs of demand recovery [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese Ministry of Finance may reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds in response to the recent surge in yields [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the central bank will monitor fluctuations in ultra-long-term yields to assess their potential impact on shorter-term yields, which have a greater effect on economic activity [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Mizuho noted that the significant drop in long-term rates may be attributed to the inherently low liquidity in the ultra-long-term segment [1] - If there is indeed a reduction in issuance and market sentiment improves, there appears to be further room for decline in yields [1] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The results of the 40-year Japanese government bond auction will be announced at 11:35 AM Beijing time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].