Q： 请问重阳投资，如何看待目前债券市场短端和长端流动性的变化？ A： 今年债券市场调整结束之后，债市收益率曲线出现了新变化。 首先是短端利率下行趋势不 改，银行间7天质押回购利率（DR007）下行超10BP，货币基金收益率也触及1%大关；其次是长 端收益率波动范围明显收窄，10年和30年国债活跃券日内波动幅度收窄到1BP以内，维持在较年 初上行15BP和25BP左右的极窄范围内波动。收益率曲线逐渐走陡。 短端收益率更多反应市场对政策宽松的预期。 此前公布的三季度经济数据显示，中国经济增长的 结构性问题仍然存在，消费仍然相对疲软，地产销售依然还在走弱，这就意味着央行需要维持相对 宽松的货币环境，稳增长政策的力度有望进一步加大。在此背景下，虽然降息的时间以及降息幅度 具有较大不确定性，但降息的方向仍是确定的。短端流动性进一步宽松的预期一致，驱动短端利率 进一步下行。 除了市场情绪的影响外，长端收益率也反映了供需结构的变化。 债券市场收益率曲线走陡，一个 原因是此前债市牛市环境中期限利差收窄幅度过大，长端交易更加拥挤，随着市场情绪的逆转这一 情况向反方向变动。从信用债ETF持续折价以及上周五全球风险资产risk ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. fiscal policy** and its implications on **monetary policy** and **debt management**. The focus is on the challenges faced by the U.S. government regarding rising interest payments and their impact on fiscal health and economic sectors sensitive to interest rates. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Challenges**: The U.S. government is experiencing a significant imbalance between spending and revenue, with interest payments consuming a larger portion of the budget compared to Japan and the EU, approximately **13%-14%** of general fiscal spending [2][2][2]. 2. **Rising Interest Payments**: Since 2020, U.S. interest payments have escalated rapidly, projected to reach **twice** the 2020 levels by 2025, with an average debt interest rate of about **3.5%** [5][5][5]. 3. **Debt Management Strategies**: To alleviate fiscal pressure, the U.S. needs to reduce interest payments by **$180 billion** if no deficit growth occurs in FY 2026, or by **$80 billion** to return to 2024 levels [5][5][5]. 4. **Impact of Monetary Policy**: The potential for a **rate cut** after Powell's term in 2026 could lead to a decrease in short-term bond rates, while long-term rates may still rise, complicating the overall debt servicing costs [3][8][8]. 5. **Debt Structure**: The current debt structure shows a high proportion of short-term debt (under one year), which is sensitive to interest rate changes. This strategy was adopted to manage costs during rising interest rates [5][8][8]. 6. **Long-term Debt Sensitivity**: Historical data indicates that short-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate cuts, while long-term bonds show less responsiveness, which could lead to increased overall costs for the government [9][9][9]. Additional Important Content 1. **Quantitative Analysis**: Two scenarios were presented indicating the necessity for significant reductions in interest payments to ease fiscal pressures [4][4][4]. 2. **Debt Refinancing**: The refinancing of maturing debt at lower rates could help reduce future interest costs, particularly for the portion of debt that is due for renewal [6][6][6]. 3. **Market Reactions**: The fiscal challenges have raised concerns in the market regarding the U.S. debt repayment capacity, leading to increased long-term bond yields, which adversely affects sectors like manufacturing and real estate [1][2][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, focusing on the U.S. fiscal and monetary landscape, the implications of rising interest payments, and the strategies for managing debt effectively.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overall capital gap pressure may be seasonally large, with a liquidity gap of around 2.4 trillion yuan. The fiscal disturbances are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the month. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited [1][2][67]. - In June, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. The overnight funds were generally stable, while the volatility range of 7D funds increased slightly. The over - reserve level may have recovered to a seasonally high level. The second - quarter monetary policy meeting did not mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" and emphasized "preventing capital idling" and "monitoring long - term yields", indicating limited room for significant capital easing in the future [3][6][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 6 - Month Review of Capital and Liquidity: Active Support at Quarter - End, Brief Tightening of Capital Prices 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Fluctuation Range of 7D at Quarter - End - In June 2025, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. Overnight funds were generally stable, and the 7D funds showed a larger fluctuation range. The 7D weighted price fluctuated more widely compared to the previous month, and the spread between 7D and overnight funds widened at the quarter - end without inversion [6]. - In the early part of June, the upfront operation of 3M term repurchase agreements (1 trillion yuan) made the capital expectation turn looser. In the middle, the 6M repurchase agreement (4000 billion yuan) offset the tax - period disturbances. In the late part, despite the central bank's support, the capital price tightened due to slow institutional cross - quarter operations and high bond market leverage [7]. - The capital stratification pressure in June was not significant, with the spreads at seasonally low levels. The volatility of overnight funds remained low, and the 7D funds were also at a seasonally low level. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly, and the net lending of state - owned banks recovered, while that of money market funds declined [13][18][19]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut Implemented, Bank Liquidity Level Increased - In terms of liquidity volume, the end - of - month over - reserve may have increased by 7061 billion yuan, and the over - reserve ratio was around 1.57%, at a seasonally high level. However, the narrow over - reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was still relatively low at around 0.8% [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased the reverse - repurchase investment in June, with a net investment of 5359 billion yuan. The MLF investment was 3000 billion yuan, and the net investment of the repurchase agreement was 2000 billion yuan. There was no treasury - deposit operation, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury deposits matured [34][40][42]. 3.2 6 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking: Lujiazui Forum Focused on Global Governance, Monetary Policy Meeting Concerned about Long - Term Interest Rates - In June 2025, the Lujiazui Forum focused on non - bank leverage, and the end - of - month meeting still concerned about capital idling and long - term interest rates. The upfront operation of the 3M repurchase agreement in June signaled the central bank's support for the capital market. The Lujiazui Forum discussed non - bank institution leverage and supervision [46][47]. - The second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, emphasizing long - term interest rate risks and preventing capital idling. The large - scale purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks and relevant media reports triggered market attention to the central bank's bond - buying operations [49][50]. 3.3 July Gap Prediction: Fiscal Disturbances May Concentrate in the Second Half of the Month 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Slight Release of Reserves, Large - Scale Repurchase Agreement Maturity - In July, as it is the beginning of the quarter, the reserve release may supplement liquidity by around 1388 billion yuan. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the total maturity of the repurchase agreement is 1.2 trillion yuan (7000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [1][55]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Limited Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits on Over - Reserves - In July, cash withdrawal may slightly consume over - reserves by 705 billion yuan, while non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement over - reserves by 215 billion yuan [1][59]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - Scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at Quarter - End - The government bonds' net financing scale in July 2025 may rise to around 1.6 trillion yuan, and the government deposits may freeze around 9000 billion yuan of liquidity, putting pressure on the capital market [60]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pay Attention to the Impact of Large - Scale Payments - The overall capital gap in July is estimated to be around 2.4 trillion yuan. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited. The capital disturbance in the middle of the month, especially due to tax payments and government bond payments, deserves attention [1][2][67].