1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overall capital gap pressure may be seasonally large, with a liquidity gap of around 2.4 trillion yuan. The fiscal disturbances are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the month. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited [1][2][67]. - In June, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. The overnight funds were generally stable, while the volatility range of 7D funds increased slightly. The over - reserve level may have recovered to a seasonally high level. The second - quarter monetary policy meeting did not mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" and emphasized "preventing capital idling" and "monitoring long - term yields", indicating limited room for significant capital easing in the future [3][6][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 6 - Month Review of Capital and Liquidity: Active Support at Quarter - End, Brief Tightening of Capital Prices 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Fluctuation Range of 7D at Quarter - End - In June 2025, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. Overnight funds were generally stable, and the 7D funds showed a larger fluctuation range. The 7D weighted price fluctuated more widely compared to the previous month, and the spread between 7D and overnight funds widened at the quarter - end without inversion [6]. - In the early part of June, the upfront operation of 3M term repurchase agreements (1 trillion yuan) made the capital expectation turn looser. In the middle, the 6M repurchase agreement (4000 billion yuan) offset the tax - period disturbances. In the late part, despite the central bank's support, the capital price tightened due to slow institutional cross - quarter operations and high bond market leverage [7]. - The capital stratification pressure in June was not significant, with the spreads at seasonally low levels. The volatility of overnight funds remained low, and the 7D funds were also at a seasonally low level. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly, and the net lending of state - owned banks recovered, while that of money market funds declined [13][18][19]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut Implemented, Bank Liquidity Level Increased - In terms of liquidity volume, the end - of - month over - reserve may have increased by 7061 billion yuan, and the over - reserve ratio was around 1.57%, at a seasonally high level. However, the narrow over - reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was still relatively low at around 0.8% [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased the reverse - repurchase investment in June, with a net investment of 5359 billion yuan. The MLF investment was 3000 billion yuan, and the net investment of the repurchase agreement was 2000 billion yuan. There was no treasury - deposit operation, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury deposits matured [34][40][42]. 3.2 6 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking: Lujiazui Forum Focused on Global Governance, Monetary Policy Meeting Concerned about Long - Term Interest Rates - In June 2025, the Lujiazui Forum focused on non - bank leverage, and the end - of - month meeting still concerned about capital idling and long - term interest rates. The upfront operation of the 3M repurchase agreement in June signaled the central bank's support for the capital market. The Lujiazui Forum discussed non - bank institution leverage and supervision [46][47]. - The second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, emphasizing long - term interest rate risks and preventing capital idling. The large - scale purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks and relevant media reports triggered market attention to the central bank's bond - buying operations [49][50]. 3.3 July Gap Prediction: Fiscal Disturbances May Concentrate in the Second Half of the Month 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Slight Release of Reserves, Large - Scale Repurchase Agreement Maturity - In July, as it is the beginning of the quarter, the reserve release may supplement liquidity by around 1388 billion yuan. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the total maturity of the repurchase agreement is 1.2 trillion yuan (7000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [1][55]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Limited Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits on Over - Reserves - In July, cash withdrawal may slightly consume over - reserves by 705 billion yuan, while non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement over - reserves by 215 billion yuan [1][59]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - Scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at Quarter - End - The government bonds' net financing scale in July 2025 may rise to around 1.6 trillion yuan, and the government deposits may freeze around 9000 billion yuan of liquidity, putting pressure on the capital market [60]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pay Attention to the Impact of Large - Scale Payments - The overall capital gap in July is estimated to be around 2.4 trillion yuan. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited. The capital disturbance in the middle of the month, especially due to tax payments and government bond payments, deserves attention [1][2][67].