期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债周报 发行规模扩张 机构配置意愿增强 20251228 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 国债期货价格 图：30年期国债期货收盘价略有反弹 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 本周债券市场整体运行平稳，发行规模显著扩张，利率债与信用债共发行881只，发行总额达11888.74亿元，显示各类主体 融资需求旺盛。而本周 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced changes in liquidity, with short-term interest rates declining and long-term yields showing reduced volatility, indicating a steepening yield curve [2][3] - Short-term rates reflect market expectations for policy easing, driven by structural issues in China's economic growth, such as weak consumption and declining real estate sales, suggesting a continued need for a loose monetary environment [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds have shifted, with an increase in the issuance of ultra-long bonds, particularly local government bonds, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of long-term bonds in the market [3] Group 2 - Short-term liquidity easing is crucial for the stock market, as it indicates ongoing support for economic growth and can lower financing costs for leveraged funds, potentially increasing risk appetite among investors [4] - The decline in short-term interest rates may lead to a continued shift of household asset allocation towards the stock market, as high-yield assets become scarcer [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of September 2025, foreign institutions held 3.78 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody volume [1] - The report indicates a significant increase in the number of foreign institutions entering the market, with 11 new entities in September alone, contributing to a total of 1,176 foreign institutions [3] - The introduction of a new bond repurchase mechanism for foreign investors is expected to enhance market liquidity and attract more foreign capital into the domestic bond market [6][7] Group 1: Foreign Investment in Bond Market - As of September 2025, foreign institutions held 2.00 trillion yuan in government bonds, 0.77 trillion yuan in policy financial bonds, and 0.86 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1][3] - The number of foreign institutions participating in the bond market has increased, with 11 out of 15 new entrants in the third quarter joining in September [3] - The trading volume of foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was approximately 0.96 trillion yuan in September, with an average daily trading volume of about 41.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The trading volume of foreign institutions in September showed a slight decline to 0.83 trillion yuan from 0.87 trillion yuan in August, indicating a limited contraction in overall trading activity [3] - Commercial banks maintained a dominant position in the bond market, with a trading volume of 24.46 trillion yuan in September, while securities companies saw a decrease in trading volume [4] - The new bond repurchase policy allows foreign institutions to engage in repurchase transactions, enhancing the liquidity management tools available to them [6][7] Group 3: Impact of New Regulations - The new regulations are expected to diversify the types of investors in the bond market, including foreign central banks, international financial organizations, and various financial institutions [6] - The introduction of the repurchase mechanism is anticipated to reduce transaction friction and enhance the willingness of foreign institutions to hold bonds [7] - The repurchase business is expected to improve the pricing efficiency of the domestic bond market by reflecting overseas capital market expectations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have jointly issued an announcement to further support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the interbank bond market [1] Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement addresses the operational differences between China's pledge-style bond repurchase and international market practices, highlighting that the current method does not transfer the pledged bonds from the seller to the buyer but instead freezes them [1] - Foreign institutional investors have expressed a preference for a model that allows for the transfer of pledged bonds and their usability, which aligns with international practices and enhances overall market liquidity [1] Group 2: Transition Period - Following the announcement, foreign institutional investors will adopt the common international practice of bond transfer and usability in their repurchase transactions [1] - To facilitate a smooth transition for foreign institutional investors already engaged in bond repurchase transactions, a 12-month transition period is provided during which these institutions can continue to operate under the original model [1]

Core Points - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT) [1][2] - Existing bonds and their subsequent issuances will continue to enjoy VAT exemption until maturity, which limits the overall market impact of this policy change [1][2] - The adjustment is aimed at enhancing the benchmark nature of the government bond yield curve and improving market liquidity by reducing the liquidity premium costs associated with the previous tax exemption [2][3] Summary by Sections Policy Adjustment - The new VAT policy applies strictly to newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025, while existing bonds retain their tax-exempt status until maturity [2] - The government bond and financial bond stock and new issuance scale for 2024 are projected to be 122 trillion yuan and 33 trillion yuan, respectively, with new issuances accounting for less than 30% of the total stock [2] Market Impact - The VAT rate is set at 6%, and the policy change primarily affects domestic investors, excluding interbank certificates of deposit, which mitigates overall market pressure [2] - The previous tax exemption led to lower trading activity and higher liquidity premiums, which the new policy aims to address by increasing trading volume and reducing tax disparities among different financial assets [2][3] Financial Market Functionality - Unifying the tax standards across different types of bonds and financial assets will enhance the comparability of government bond yields with other financial instruments, thereby improving the pricing benchmark function of the government bond yield curve [3]