做配置的小雪 . 曾经幻想暴富，现实变成暴负，投资只能慢慢变富～ 最近，收到一位朋友留言，他认为，我们应该追求集中投资，而不是分散投资。 集中还是分散，只是两种投资流派，没有对错之分，选择适合自己的才是最好的。 不过，根据我们的经验来看，集中投资是「极少数天赋怪」的游戏，对于大多数投资者而言，分 散投资更容易赚到钱。 01 以下文章来源于做配置的小雪 ，作者做配置的小雪 分散投资的「成功概率」远高于集中投资 过去，集中投资创造了很多财富神话，并被散户们热烈追捧，但事实是，正是因为集中投资成功 的概率极低，所以才叫做"神话"。 即使在成熟的美股市场，提到集中投资的成功典范，我们只能想到巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦。 然而靠分散投资取胜，并且规模不断壮大的机构则非常多，比如贝莱德、先锋领航、道富环球、 桥水、富达等等。 尽管身处财富管理行业最发达的美国，有最顶级的投研团队和技术能力，但是靠分散投资成功的 机构，也比集中投资的更多。 02 集中投资的「难度」远高于分散投资 靠集中投资赚钱的前提是，找到并且看懂好公司，但这非常难。 股票的估值不止受公司影响，还受宏观环境、产业行业、以及市场情绪影响，想要看懂这些更不 容易 ...

但到了知天命的年纪，胡总管理的组合已经超过50个股票，即便管理的资产规模和二十年前相当，分散 度却大幅提升。 市场普遍觉得，集中组合回报更好，但波动大，可在他看来远不止如此。 集中组合，特别容易被运气左右，任何股票的投资，都藏着显性或隐性的假设，也离不开大概率选择， 可一旦关键假设不成立，或是发生小概率事件，投资就可能亏损。 集中组合，可能出现多数股票，同时遭遇小概率事件的情况，也可能撞上持续走好运的局面， 但高度分散的组合，很难同时遇到多数股票出问题，也不会有那么多歪打正着的好运。 分散组合，更能凸显投资哲学、框架、流程和纪律的价值。 几个股票靠灵感、关键信息或核心逻辑或许能成功，但50个股票绝无可能。 平庸的基金经理管50个股票的组合，大概率只能拿到平庸回报，很难超越市场； 胡总早年是崇尚集中投资的，40岁以前，不管是管理机构组合还是个人组合，股票数量都没超过10个， 二十年前甚至只持有3个股票。 要么看他们管理组合的时间是否足够长（十年以上持续盈利且超越市场），否则业绩没有参考价值。 要是有基金经理只靠买茅台、腾讯或苹果赚了10倍就来融资，他大概率会拒绝。 这里说的分散，必须是真正的，低相关分散。 如果 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the debate between concentrated and diversified investment strategies, emphasizing that true concentrated investment is often misunderstood by many investors [1] Group 1: Understanding Concentrated Investment - True concentrated investment is a tool for rational investors, with no inherent good or bad; it is merely a means to achieve stable high returns [2] - Rational investors typically start with diversified investments and gradually move towards concentrated investments as their knowledge and market understanding grow [2][3] - In the early stages, due to limited knowledge, rational investors tend to diversify their investments to mitigate risk, believing that many companies appear equally promising [2][3] Group 2: Transition from Diversification to Concentration - As investors' understanding of business and finance improves, they begin to recognize subtle differences between companies, leading them to favor concentrated investments [3][4] - The process of moving from over-diversification to concentration is natural and gradual, akin to mastering a skill through extensive practice [3] Group 3: Differences in Investment Approaches - Rational concentrated investors possess the knowledge and ability to diversify but choose not to, while diversified investors lack the sharp insight required for concentrated investment [4] - The distinction between rational concentrated investment and gambling-style concentrated investment is crucial; the former involves thorough analysis and selection, while the latter is often based on luck and superficial research [5][6] Group 4: Characteristics of Rational vs. Gambling-style Investment - Rational concentrated investors engage in a long-term process of learning and selection, while gambling-style investors often place all their bets on a few stocks without adequate research [6][7] - Rational investors can articulate why they prefer certain stocks over others, demonstrating deep understanding, whereas gambling-style investors rely on confidence and luck [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate between concentrated and diversified investment strategies, emphasizing that true concentrated investment is often misunderstood by many investors [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Concentrated Investment - True concentrated investment is a method used by rational investors, who view both concentrated and diversified investments as tools to achieve stable high returns without a clear distinction of good or bad [3]. - Rational investors typically start with diversified investments due to limited knowledge and gradually move towards concentrated investments as their understanding of the market improves [4][5]. - Over-diversification is seen as a preliminary stage for rational investors, who eventually recognize the subtle differences between companies and stocks, leading them to prefer concentrated investments [4][5]. Group 2: Differences in Investment Approaches - Rational concentrated investors possess the knowledge and ability to diversify but choose not to, while diversified investors lack the sharp insight required for concentrated investment [5]. - The article distinguishes between rational concentrated investment and gambling-style concentrated investment, where the latter often involves hasty decisions based on limited research or external advice [6][7]. - Rational concentrated investment is characterized by a long-term evolution of understanding and thoughtful decision-making, contrasting sharply with the impulsive nature of gambling-style concentrated investment [7][8].

Core Insights - The article explores the journey of Charlie Munger from a lawyer to a successful investor, highlighting the unconventional thinking that led to significant investment success [4][5][6][7][8][11]. Group 1: Munger's Early Life and Career - Munger faced numerous challenges in his early life, including wartime experiences and personal tragedies, which shaped his analytical mindset and emotional resilience [5][6]. - His transition to investment began after establishing a stable family life, leading him to explore opportunities beyond his legal career [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy Evolution - Munger's first investment experience was with a small transformer company, which taught him the importance of quality over price in investment decisions [6][8]. - The pivotal moment in Munger's investment philosophy came with the acquisition of See's Candies in 1972, which shifted his focus from seeking cheap stocks to investing in high-quality companies with strong competitive advantages [8][9][10]. Group 3: Key Investment Principles - Munger emphasizes "reverse thinking," where he anticipates potential failures before making investment decisions, allowing him to avoid significant losses [11][12]. - He advocates for concentrated investing, arguing that deep understanding of a few companies is safer than spreading investments too thin [12]. - Munger's investment strategy includes a focus on opportunity cost, prioritizing investments in truly exceptional companies and exercising patience [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Success Metrics - Munger's investment approach has contributed to Berkshire Hathaway achieving a remarkable 19.2% annual compound growth rate over 51 years, demonstrating the effectiveness of his principles [11][13]. - The combination of correct investment philosophy, strict execution discipline, and continuous learning has been crucial to Munger's sustained success [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the debate between investing in index funds versus individual stocks, highlighting the potential benefits of stock picking for higher returns [1][2][3]. Group 1: Index Funds vs. Individual Stocks - Index funds provide greater diversification and are generally considered safer for risk-averse investors [1][3]. - Experts argue that avoiding individual stocks may lead to missed opportunities for significant gains [2][4]. - Charles Payne suggests that index funds can dilute high-performing stocks, advocating for a concentrated portfolio of top picks instead [5]. Group 2: Research and Strategy - Investors are encouraged to conduct thorough research before purchasing individual stocks, rather than following trends blindly [6][7]. - Key indicators of a company's health can be found in quarterly reports, which are essential for assessing future demand for products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy and life journey of Charlie Munger, highlighting his unique approach to thinking and investing, which combines reverse thinking, understanding one's circle of competence, and the importance of a strong economic moat for long-term success [2][13]. Group 1: Charlie Munger's Background - Charlie Munger was born in 1924 in Omaha, Nebraska, and had a diverse educational background, including studying mathematics at the University of Michigan and later attending Harvard Law School [4]. - After facing personal challenges, including a failed marriage and his son's illness, Munger shifted his focus to investing, founding Wheeler Munger Partnership, which outperformed the Dow Jones by 18 percentage points annually over ten years [4]. Group 2: Partnership with Warren Buffett - Munger met Warren Buffett in 1959, and their shared values and interests led to a strong partnership, with Munger becoming Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway in 1978 [6]. - Together, they transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a multi-trillion dollar conglomerate, achieving an annual compound return of approximately 20% [6]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Munger advocates for reverse thinking, suggesting that identifying potential failures is more effective than focusing solely on success [7]. - He emphasizes the importance of knowing one's limitations, only investing in businesses that can be understood and evaluated [7]. - Munger encourages buying great companies at fair prices, as demonstrated by the acquisition of See's Candies, which significantly contributed to Berkshire's cash flow over decades [8]. - He believes in the significance of a strong economic moat, which should be deep and wide, allowing for long-term investment [9]. - Munger employs a multi-disciplinary approach, utilizing various mental models from different fields to avoid narrow thinking [10]. - He supports concentrated investing, arguing that good opportunities are rare and should be seized with significant investment [11]. - Munger practices delayed gratification and a disciplined lifestyle, investing time and money into learning and compounding returns [12].

Group 1 - The article highlights the life and investment philosophy of Charlie Munger, emphasizing his journey from a modest background to becoming a prominent investor alongside Warren Buffett [2][3] - Munger's early career included law practice and real estate development, which laid the foundation for his later success in investment [4] - The partnership between Munger and Buffett transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile company into a multi-trillion dollar conglomerate, achieving an annualized return of approximately 20% over 45 years [6] Group 2 - Munger's investment philosophy includes the concept of "thinking backward," which focuses on identifying potential failures rather than just successes, leading to a clearer understanding of risks [7] - He emphasizes the importance of knowing one's limitations and only investing in areas where one has expertise, thereby expanding one's circle of competence [7] - Munger advocates for buying great companies at fair prices, as demonstrated by the acquisition of See's Candies, which significantly contributed to Berkshire's cash flow over decades [8] Group 3 - The concept of a "moat" is central to Munger's investment strategy, where he seeks companies with strong competitive advantages that can withstand market pressures over time [9] - Munger employs a multi-disciplinary approach to investing, utilizing various fields of knowledge to avoid narrow thinking and enhance decision-making [10] - He promotes concentrated investing, arguing that good opportunities are rare and should be capitalized on heavily, as evidenced by Berkshire's top holdings consistently representing a large portion of its equity value [11] Group 4 - Munger's lifestyle choices reflect his investment philosophy, emphasizing delayed gratification and disciplined living to maximize long-term benefits [12] - The article concludes with Munger's formula for a remarkable life, which combines backward thinking, a defined circle of competence, a strong moat, and the power of compound interest [13]

Core Viewpoint - Investment requires a personal style that aligns with one's cognitive framework, operational discipline, and risk tolerance, enabling a coherent internal logic and belief system in the market [3][4]. Investment Style - Investment style is defined as the sum of cognitive frameworks, operational discipline, and risk thresholds exhibited during portfolio construction and security selection [4]. - Successful value investors often have diverse stock holdings, indicating that value investing is not a rigid doctrine but revolves around the "value and price difference" [5]. Self-Recognition - A mature investor must have a clear understanding of themselves, including knowledge reserves, risk tolerance, and personality traits, to define their capability circle [8]. - Many investors lose money due to a lack of self-awareness, leading to inconsistent strategies and decisions [8]. Shortcomings and Strengths - Recognizing one's shortcomings is crucial, as investment success is often determined by these weaknesses [9]. - Acknowledging and leveraging strengths can provide stability to one's investment style [10]. Consistency in Strategy - Once an investment style is established, it should not be frequently changed; consistency is key [12]. - Investors should select a coherent investment philosophy that aligns with market realities and their personality [13]. Adaptability and Long-Term Focus - The key to success lies in finding a compatible investment approach rather than pursuing theoretical "optimal solutions" [14]. - Investors should avoid trying to chase multiple conflicting investment strategies simultaneously, as this leads to confusion and poor outcomes [15]. Practical Investment Guidelines - Avoiding leverage is recommended, as it can amplify losses during market downturns [17]. - Diversification across several industries and companies is essential to mitigate risks [17]. - Investment decisions should be based on the level of certainty regarding a company's prospects [17]. Valuation and Market Behavior - Investors should focus on a company's intrinsic value rather than being swayed by market emotions [18]. - Long-term holding is emphasized as a result of understanding a company's value, rather than a goal in itself [18]. - A conservative approach to valuation is advised, allowing for a safety margin to cushion against unforeseen market events [19].