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黑色商品日报(2026年3月31日)-20260331
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 11:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a stage of "cost push" and "demand suppression" game, with the price bottom rising but limited upward momentum. It is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillation trend in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by geopolitical factors and improved fundamentals. With both long and short factors at play, it is expected to continue a high - level oscillation in the short term [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by complex macro - factors. The coking coal market has reduced inventory pressure on the supply side and high replenishment enthusiasm on the demand side. The coke market has increased demand from steel mills but high raw material costs. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, cost changes, and production adjustments. With support from the cost side and certain supply - side expectations, they are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillation trend in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.48%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 99,700 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 0.25% to 6.6339 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.95% to 3.1539 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with 140,000 lots traded and a reduction of 16,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased due to a hurricane but gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased. The port inventory decreased by 147,350 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 550,000 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (0.41%), with a decrease of 1113 lots in positions. Most mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, and the inventory pressure was relieved. Coke enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm was high [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.09%), with a decrease of 436 lots in positions. The port spot price of coke decreased. The cost of coking coal for coke enterprises was still high, and the demand from steel mills increased [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6588 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,315 lots to 366,900 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions increased. Due to rising manganese ore prices, the number of production - reducing and production - converting enterprises increased, and the开机率 decreased. The cost was relatively firm, but the inventory was under pressure [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6066 yuan/ton, up 1.57% from the previous trading day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 4555 lots to 171,600 lots. The market price of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions increased. A silicon - iron furnace in Shaanxi was under maintenance. The total production in March was expected to be 451,400 tons, a 6.34% increase from the previous month and an 8.4% decrease from the same period last year. The cost increased, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest values and changes in contract spreads (such as 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months) and basis for various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: It also shows the latest values and changes in profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][8][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [16][17][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts presenting the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 05 - 10, 10 - 01) for different black commodities from 2018 to 2027 [25][27][31][32][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts present the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar main contracts from 2021 to 2026 [43][44][45][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and the combination of financial theory and industrial operations [50].
能化品种大分化,农产品补涨,下一个周期之王是谁?
对冲研投· 2026-03-14 06:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising energy prices on agricultural products, highlighting the interconnectedness of energy markets and agricultural commodities, and outlines three main logical pathways through which these effects manifest. Group 1: Energy Price Impact on Agricultural Products - Historical patterns show that surges in energy prices lead to increased demand for alternative fuels, which in turn boosts industrial consumption of agricultural products, resulting in rising grain prices [2] - The current energy crisis is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with varying degrees of impact across different agricultural commodities [2] Group 2: Oilseeds and Fats - Oilseeds, particularly palm oil, are closely linked to crude oil prices, with approximately 28% of global oilseed consumption used for biodiesel production. Rising crude oil prices make biodiesel production more economically viable, increasing demand for oilseeds [3] - As of March 12, 2026, domestic palm oil futures rose by 1.13% to 9818 CNY/ton, driven by crude oil price increases and potential policy changes in Indonesia that could raise palm oil consumption by approximately 3 million tons [3] - The price spread between palm oil and diesel is narrowing, indicating a shift in the valuation of oilseeds due to high oil prices [3] Group 3: Oilseed Meal - The price increase in soybean meal and rapeseed meal is driven by two factors: overall commodity price increases and rising shipping costs due to delays in soybean imports from Brazil and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [5] - As of March 12, 2026, domestic soybean meal prices rose, with Tianjin at 3380 CNY/ton, influenced by reduced import volumes and strong pricing intentions from oil mills [5] - The correlation between rising crude oil prices and soybean prices is evident, as higher oil prices enhance the profitability of soybean oil production, thereby increasing soybean prices [5] Group 4: Cotton - Cotton prices are supported by two main factors: the competitiveness of cotton against synthetic fibers due to rising raw material costs and increased planting costs driven by higher fertilizer prices [6] - The price of urea, a key fertilizer, has risen significantly, impacting cotton production costs and potentially leading to stronger cotton prices in the market [6] Group 5: Sugar - The relationship between sugar and ethanol production is highlighted, with rising crude oil prices making ethanol production more attractive, thereby reducing sugar supply and increasing prices [8] - The expectation of reduced sugar production in Brazil due to the shift towards ethanol is becoming more pronounced, with domestic sugar prices also showing signs of support despite high industrial inventories [9] Group 6: Corn - Corn prices are influenced by both international market trends and domestic supply-demand dynamics, with rising import costs due to increased shipping expenses [10] - As of March 12, 2026, domestic corn prices ranged from 2360 to 2510 CNY/ton, with market pressures from increased rice supply affecting corn pricing [10] Group 7: Livestock and Eggs - The livestock sector, particularly for pigs and eggs, faces pressure from rising feed costs, which constitute a significant portion of total production costs [11] - As of March 12, 2026, the average price of pigs was 10.16 CNY/kg, with rising feed prices squeezing profit margins for producers [11] Group 8: Fertilizers - Fertilizer prices, particularly urea, are rising due to supply chain disruptions, which will ultimately affect the planting costs of various agricultural products [13] - The increase in fertilizer prices is expected to have a slow but significant impact on the overall cost structure of agricultural production [13] Group 9: Summary of Agricultural Product Logic - The article summarizes the impact of geopolitical tensions on agricultural products through three main lines: energy substitution logic, cost-push logic, and substitution product logic [14] - Rising crude oil prices enhance the attractiveness of biofuels, increase import costs for key agricultural inputs, and improve the competitiveness of domestic products against imports [14]
黑色金属日报-20260309
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 11:07
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its strong short - term trend with increased volatility due to cost - push and weak domestic demand but high exports. Iron ore is likely to have a volatile trend with marginal improvement in supply - demand. Coke and coking coal prices may be affected by geopolitical conflicts and have an upward tendency. Silicon manganese and silicon iron are likely to have a strong - side volatile trend [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. Thread demand improved slowly, production increased, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand both declined, and inventory pressure was relatively high. During the conference, blast furnace production was restricted, and later it will gradually resume production, but poor steel mill profits limit the recovery speed. Domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high. The continuous rise in crude oil prices has increased inflation expectations, and the futures market is expected to continue its strong short - term trend [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose today, and the basis weakened recently. Global iron ore shipments decreased significantly compared to the previous period and were lower than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded from a low level. Steel mills have some production profits, and iron - making water production is expected to continue to recover. Geopolitical conflicts and rising oil prices provide cost support, and the market is expected to be volatile [2] Coke - Coke prices fell during the day, and the first round of price cuts was fully implemented. Coking profits are average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. Carbon supply is abundant, downstream iron - making water is at a low level, and steel profits are average. The futures price is at a premium, and the market's concern about energy due to geopolitical conflicts may make coke prices more likely to rise [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose to the daily limit and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts have affected market sentiment on chemical raw material supply. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1492 vehicles. Coal mine resumption is good, but spot auction transactions have decreased, and the transaction price has fallen slightly. Terminal inventory continues to decline, and total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and geopolitical conflicts may make prices more likely to rise [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose and then fell during the day. International conflicts have a positive impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects manganese ore freight and is beneficial to the cost of silicon manganese. Spot manganese ore prices have risen significantly, port inventory has decreased slightly, and mine shipments have increased. Iron - making water production has decreased significantly, silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. Prices are likely to be strong - side volatile [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices rose and then fell during the day. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the price of semi - coke has decreased slightly. The main production areas are still in a loss state. Iron - making water production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and overall demand is still resilient. Weekly supply has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. Prices are likely to be strong - side volatile [7]
宏观金融类:文字早评2026/01/13星期二-20260113
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 00:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].