10月6日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在盘中触及16个月高点后下滑，因美元走强引发的获 利了结超过了对智利和印尼供应的担忧。 伦敦时间10月6日17:00(北京时间10月7日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌61美元，或0.57%，收报每吨 10,654.5美元。该合约此前曾触及5月份以来的最高点10,800美元。周一的最高点代表着自4月初以来近 25%的涨幅。 | | 10月6日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,654.50 -61.00 -0.57% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,725.00 ↑ | +15.50 ↑ +0.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,007.00 ↓ | -27.50 J -0.91% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,004.50 ↓ | -15.50 -0.77% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,482.00 ↑ | +49.00 ↑ +0.32% | | 三个月期锡 | 36,798.00 -657.00 -1.75% | | 数据来源：文华财经 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose on September 23 due to supply disruptions and interest rate cuts, offsetting concerns over high inventories and a sluggish global economy [1][4] - The three-month copper futures closed at $9,974.50 per ton, up $12.00 or 0.02% [2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13%, although it has retreated from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 reached last week [5] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine, one of the world's largest copper mines, remains offline following an accident in early September [4] - U.S. copper inventories surged by 241% this year, reaching 318,285 short tons, primarily due to anticipated tariffs [4] - Southern Copper Corporation expects stable copper production in Peru, having invested $800 million in projects [5] Group 3 - Nickel was the best-performing LME base metal on September 23, rising by 0.93% or $141.00 to $15,345 per ton, following Indonesia's suspension of 190 coal and mineral mining licenses [5]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, potentially marking the longest streak in over a year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased supply concerns [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Aluminum prices increased by 0.6% to $2,705 per ton during the Asian trading session, reaching the highest level since March [1]. - The rise in aluminum prices is attributed to heightened expectations of monetary easing, which has put pressure on the US dollar and boosted industrial metal prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a surge in aluminum inventory withdrawal requests, raising concerns about supply, which continues to support aluminum prices [1].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $3500, reaching a historical high due to increased expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89% according to CME FedWatch [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook have intensified safe-haven buying, alongside uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, although short-term consolidation may occur, with key data releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls to influence future price direction [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - After breaking the historical high, gold may face a correction, but the overall trend remains bullish, with potential targets of $3550 to $3580 if it surpasses the $3510 resistance level [2] - Key support is identified at $3465; as long as this level holds, the bullish trend is intact, but a drop below this could signal a short-term adjustment [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend, and the RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a possible short-term pullback [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have rebounded, with Brent crude reaching $68.35 and WTI at $64.82, influenced by supply concerns due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, which has reportedly halted approximately 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity [5] - The market is currently balancing between supply concerns and trade friction pressures, with the direction of prices heavily reliant on signals from OPEC+ meetings [5] - The overall trend for oil appears to be downward in the medium term, despite short-term upward movements, as indicated by the MACD and price action [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices are showing signs of upward movement after a period of consolidation, with short-term resistance at $67.0 to $68.0 and support at $64.0 to $63.0 [6] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is gaining strength, indicating a higher probability of continued upward movement in the short term [6]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.48% to $9,685 per ton due to supply concerns following an accident at Codelco's mine in Chile, despite rising copper inventories limiting price gains [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September copper contract fell by 0.25% to 78,280 yuan per ton, with Codelco required to submit four reports regarding the El Teniente mine collapse before resuming underground operations [2] - El Teniente mine produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, and traders are now re-exporting a portion of record shipments to the U.S. to capitalize on higher prices, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile [3] Group 2 - LME registered copper inventories increased by 2,275 tons (1.48%) to 156,125 tons, rising over 70% since the end of June [3] - Weak U.S. employment data has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a weaker dollar, making dollar-denominated metals like copper cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Other LME metals also saw price increases, with aluminum up 0.6% to $2,578 per ton, nickel up 0.64% to $15,120 per ton, lead up 1.27% to $1,998.5 per ton, tin up 0.69% to $33,485 per ton, and zinc up 0.62% to $2,775 per ton [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose by $56.5, or 0.59%, closing at $9,687.0 per ton on August 4, supported by supply concerns but limited by global economic worries [1][2] - LME copper has rebounded by 20% since hitting a 16-month low in April, but has retreated from over $10,000 in early July [3] - A mining accident in Chile's El Teniente mine, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, has halted operations, raising supply concerns [3] Group 2 - Mitsubishi Materials is considering reducing copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelting and refining plant, indicating potential supply issues in Japan [3] - Recent U.S. employment data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, raising concerns about economic growth [3] - The U.S. unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, with significant downward revisions to previous months' job growth figures [3]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and supply concerns, alongside increasing demand from China [1] Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift in supply and demand, with the possibility of China emerging as a new demand driver for copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot platinum prices have surged to their highest level since 2014, reaching a peak of $1,383 per ounce due to increasing concerns over supply [1] Group 1 - Spot platinum has risen significantly, reflecting heightened supply concerns in the market [1]