行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for copper is optimistic, but supply concerns have arisen due to a series of mining accidents, pushing copper prices towards a new testing point of $11,000 per ton, nearing last year's historical high [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Three-month copper futures in London have increased by over 1%, approaching $10,970 per ton [1] - Year-to-date, copper prices have risen approximately 25%, recovering from significant sell-offs triggered by trade tensions in April [1] - Supply issues have become a central concern for investors, particularly due to the suspension of operations at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia caused by a landslide [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - Aluminum prices have reached their highest level in over three years, currently at $2,883.50 per ton, and are on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains [1] - Zinc and tin prices have also seen increases during the trading session on Friday [1] Group 3: Company Updates - Freeport-McMoRan has indicated that the Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, remains in a state of suspension, with an update on the mine's outlook expected next month [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices experienced a decline after reaching a 16-month high, primarily due to profit-taking triggered by a stronger US dollar, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile and Indonesia [1][4]. Price Movements - LME three-month copper fell by $61, or 0.57%, closing at $10,654.50 per ton after hitting a peak of $10,800, marking a nearly 25% increase since early April [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed results: - Three-month aluminum rose by $15.50, or 0.57%, to $2,725.00 [2][6]. - Three-month zinc decreased by $27.50, or 0.91%, to $3,007.00 [2][7]. - Three-month lead dropped by $15.50, or 0.77%, to $2,004.50 [2][8]. - Three-month nickel increased by $49, or 0.32%, to $15,482.00 [2][9]. - Three-month tin fell by $657, or 1.75%, to $36,798.00 [2][10]. Market Influences - The recent rise in copper prices was partly attributed to the absence of the Chinese market during the Golden Week holiday, leading to increased selling by Chinese investors [4]. - A stronger US dollar, which rose by 0.4% to 98.11, made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, prompting traders to close long positions [4]. - The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September employment report, which may impact market sentiment [5]. Supply Concerns - Supply disruptions are expected to persist due to operational halts at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a landslide, along with other interruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose on September 23 due to supply disruptions and interest rate cuts, offsetting concerns over high inventories and a sluggish global economy [1][4] - The three-month copper futures closed at $9,974.50 per ton, up $12.00 or 0.02% [2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13%, although it has retreated from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 reached last week [5] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine, one of the world's largest copper mines, remains offline following an accident in early September [4] - U.S. copper inventories surged by 241% this year, reaching 318,285 short tons, primarily due to anticipated tariffs [4] - Southern Copper Corporation expects stable copper production in Peru, having invested $800 million in projects [5] Group 3 - Nickel was the best-performing LME base metal on September 23, rising by 0.93% or $141.00 to $15,345 per ton, following Indonesia's suspension of 190 coal and mineral mining licenses [5]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, potentially marking the longest streak in over a year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased supply concerns [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Aluminum prices increased by 0.6% to $2,705 per ton during the Asian trading session, reaching the highest level since March [1]. - The rise in aluminum prices is attributed to heightened expectations of monetary easing, which has put pressure on the US dollar and boosted industrial metal prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a surge in aluminum inventory withdrawal requests, raising concerns about supply, which continues to support aluminum prices [1].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $3500, reaching a historical high due to increased expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89% according to CME FedWatch [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook have intensified safe-haven buying, alongside uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, although short-term consolidation may occur, with key data releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls to influence future price direction [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - After breaking the historical high, gold may face a correction, but the overall trend remains bullish, with potential targets of $3550 to $3580 if it surpasses the $3510 resistance level [2] - Key support is identified at $3465; as long as this level holds, the bullish trend is intact, but a drop below this could signal a short-term adjustment [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend, and the RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a possible short-term pullback [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have rebounded, with Brent crude reaching $68.35 and WTI at $64.82, influenced by supply concerns due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, which has reportedly halted approximately 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity [5] - The market is currently balancing between supply concerns and trade friction pressures, with the direction of prices heavily reliant on signals from OPEC+ meetings [5] - The overall trend for oil appears to be downward in the medium term, despite short-term upward movements, as indicated by the MACD and price action [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices are showing signs of upward movement after a period of consolidation, with short-term resistance at $67.0 to $68.0 and support at $64.0 to $63.0 [6] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is gaining strength, indicating a higher probability of continued upward movement in the short term [6]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.48% to $9,685 per ton due to supply concerns following an accident at Codelco's mine in Chile, despite rising copper inventories limiting price gains [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September copper contract fell by 0.25% to 78,280 yuan per ton, with Codelco required to submit four reports regarding the El Teniente mine collapse before resuming underground operations [2] - El Teniente mine produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, and traders are now re-exporting a portion of record shipments to the U.S. to capitalize on higher prices, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile [3] Group 2 - LME registered copper inventories increased by 2,275 tons (1.48%) to 156,125 tons, rising over 70% since the end of June [3] - Weak U.S. employment data has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a weaker dollar, making dollar-denominated metals like copper cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Other LME metals also saw price increases, with aluminum up 0.6% to $2,578 per ton, nickel up 0.64% to $15,120 per ton, lead up 1.27% to $1,998.5 per ton, tin up 0.69% to $33,485 per ton, and zinc up 0.62% to $2,775 per ton [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose by $56.5, or 0.59%, closing at $9,687.0 per ton on August 4, supported by supply concerns but limited by global economic worries [1][2] - LME copper has rebounded by 20% since hitting a 16-month low in April, but has retreated from over $10,000 in early July [3] - A mining accident in Chile's El Teniente mine, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, has halted operations, raising supply concerns [3] Group 2 - Mitsubishi Materials is considering reducing copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelting and refining plant, indicating potential supply issues in Japan [3] - Recent U.S. employment data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, raising concerns about economic growth [3] - The U.S. unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, with significant downward revisions to previous months' job growth figures [3]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and supply concerns, alongside increasing demand from China [1] Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift in supply and demand, with the possibility of China emerging as a new demand driver for copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot platinum prices have surged to their highest level since 2014, reaching a peak of $1,383 per ounce due to increasing concerns over supply [1] Group 1 - Spot platinum has risen significantly, reflecting heightened supply concerns in the market [1]