新型电力系统 ：变革已至，系统平价带来能源需求为王的 时代 20250924 摘要 中国未来十年长期增长依赖新能源，预计到 2030 年新增用电量达 3 万 亿度。光伏虽不再是主要动力，但锂电池、电动车和 AI 算力将持续拉动 用电增长，AI 算力预计贡献 0.5%至 1%的增长。 评估新能源系统面临挑战，传统 LCOE 方法不适用，因新能源利用小时 数低且需高稳定性，导致初始投资巨大。高利率和经济环境加剧企业投 资压力，新能源的随机性、间歇性和季节性波动也增加了储能配置的复 杂性和成本。 中国需并行发展传统能源和新能源，构建双轨制能源系统。传统能源作 为备用，新能源为主力。政策支持和创新商业模式对吸引企业参与至关 重要，同时需加强技术研发，提高储能效率，应对新能源的波动性挑战。 储能配置对光伏平台效益至关重要，最佳配置比例需综合考虑新能源渗 透率和度电成本。数据显示，新能源成本随渗透率增加呈非线性增长， 因此储能配置应根据实际需求进行优化。 Q&A 中国电力系统的现状和未来发展趋势如何？ 中国的电气化率已经达到 27.4%，高于许多欧美发达国家。中国能源需求的强 逻辑背景是进口能源是否需要被替代，这导致了电 ...

日前，中广核"天山绿洲行"采访调研走进洛浦光伏治沙示范项目、河崖村乡村振兴现场、若羌100万千 瓦风电场，沿着"由沙入绿、由点及面"的路径，看现场、看数据、看变化，感受中广核能源与生态融合 发展的成果。 同时，中广核携手中国国新集团，共同成立中广核新疆新能源投资有限公司，注册资本金150亿元，作 为在疆产业投资平台，推进强链、补链、延链。 良好的业绩离不开科技创新支撑。以玛依塔斯风电场"风之翼"创新工作室为例，团队自研滑环检测设 备，可14回路直阻同步测量、精度达到0.01毫欧；协同除冰装置把年均停机从180小时压到30小时，按 66台机组测算年增发约1700万千瓦时。 向北跨越千里，塔城玛依塔斯把"易怒的风"变成稳定的电。一期项目2011年实现"当年核准、当年开 工、当年投产"，至今平稳运行14年，年均发电小时数超3500小时，累计发电量超90亿千瓦时。 在萨吾尔山脚下，吉木乃源网荷储一体化电场集"发—储—送—用"于一身，2024年供电量8.67亿千瓦 时，风电利用小时数为2284小时，光伏利用小时数为1670小时，储能灵活调用456.24万千瓦时，本地消 纳率超95%，运营业绩位居当地前茅。 数据显示，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The green electricity direct connection project in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, represents a significant advancement in China's green development, showcasing a scalable model for direct green electricity supply that has been operational for over 10 months [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Breakthrough - The release of a joint notice by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration in 2024 provides clear regulations for point-to-point green electricity supply, marking a pivotal shift in the renewable energy sector [3]. - This policy breaks the traditional constraints of complex electricity grid hierarchies, laying a solid foundation for direct green electricity trading and signaling a new phase of institutionalization in green electricity development [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The Ulanqab project utilizes an advanced "integrated wind-solar-storage" system with a total installed capacity of 80 MW, ensuring 100% stable green electricity supply to enterprises in the park [4]. - The project innovatively establishes a "green electricity dedicated line," enabling direct connections between power generation and consumption, which reduces losses and enhances economic efficiency [4]. - An Energy Management System (EMS) is introduced to manage the integration of dispersed green power resources, creating a stable and controllable "virtual power plant" [4]. Group 3: Mechanism Breakthrough - The project is the first in the country to sign long-term green power purchase agreements (PPAs) between generation and consumption sides, completing the entire process of electricity trading registration [5]. - This registration mechanism acts as a "double insurance" for compliant trading and identity certification of green electricity, significantly enhancing the credibility and market acceptance of the direct connection model [5]. - Real-time data collection and transmission ensure that every green electricity transaction is verifiable and trustworthy, improving market transparency and credibility [5]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The Ulanqab green electricity direct connection revolution offers a practical solution to China's renewable energy consumption challenges under national policy guidance, technological innovation, and mechanism breakthroughs [6]. - As the "dual carbon" strategy and electricity market reforms advance, the green electricity direct connection model is expected to play a crucial role in building a new type of power system [6]. - This model signifies a transition from initial "policy-driven" development to mature "model innovation," paving the way for cheaper, more transparent, and reliable green electricity applications [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese energy storage market**, which is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy initiatives and innovative business models across various provinces, such as Inner Mongolia and Gansu [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **2025-2027 New Energy Storage Development Plan** aims for a total installed capacity of **180GW** by 2027, requiring approximately **100GW** of new installations over the next three years. As of the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity is **73.8GW**, indicating a significant growth opportunity [2][3]. - The **price of energy storage cells** is influenced by rising raw material costs, particularly lithium carbonate, and an unexpected surge in domestic demand, leading to a new upward cycle in supply and demand dynamics [1][4]. - The **global power system development trends** favor the long-term sustainability of the energy storage industry, with increasing renewable energy ratios and nonlinear electricity demand driving the need for flexible resources. Electrochemical storage is highlighted as a key solution due to its flexible deployment and controllable costs [5]. Additional Important Insights - The **role of energy storage in renewable energy** is critical, with current strong ratios around **11%** expected to rise to **17%** or even **40%** in the future, enhancing the utilization of renewable energy [6]. - Factors contributing to the continued demand for **independent energy storage** in China include the need for flexible supply to ensure grid safety, supportive local capacity pricing policies, and a shift in investment strategies among state-owned enterprises [7]. - Leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as **Sungrow Power Supply**, **CATL**, and others, are positioned to benefit from both domestic market transformations and global expansion opportunities [5]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential elements discussed in the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and strategic importance of the energy storage sector in China.

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wind power sector is expected to rise by 18.3% in 2024, slightly lower than the power equipment sector but outperforming photovoltaics [1] - Domestic wind power bidding reached 164 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 90%, with a strong demand outlook for 2025 [1][4] - The average bidding price for wind turbines with towers was 2010 RMB/kW in August 2025, a slight decrease from the previous month but a 27% increase from the lowest point last year [1][5] - The average price for land-based turbines without towers was 1525 RMB/kW, up 19% from last year's low [1][5] - The overall industry price is expected to increase by at least 3% to 5%, indicating a clear upward trend [1][5] Market Dynamics - The competition among leading wind turbine manufacturers is intensifying, with the gap between top companies narrowing [1][6] - The top five companies had a bidding volume exceeding 27 GW each last year, indicating a concentration of competition among leading firms [1][6] - The expected new installations for 2025 are projected to reach 107 GW, with approximately 12 GW from offshore installations [1][7] Investment Insights - Public fund holdings in the wind power sector accounted for 0.95% of total market value in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][8] - The sector is recommended for investment, particularly in leading companies such as Yunda, Goldwind Technology, Sany Heavy Industry, and Mingyang Smart Energy [1][7][21] Performance Metrics - The wind power sector has shown a significant performance increase, with a total rise of 18.3% since last year, outperforming the photovoltaic sector [3][8] - In the first half of 2025, new installations reached 51.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 98.9% [3][9] - The cost structure of wind turbines shows that the tower accounts for 29% and blades for 22% of total costs, with upstream material cost optimization aiding profitability [3][17] Competitive Landscape - The leading companies in the Chinese wind power market include Goldwind Technology, Envision Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, Yunda, and Sany Heavy Industry, collectively holding about 75% market share [11] - Goldwind Technology leads with a market share of 21.5% [11] - The focus of competition is shifting towards technological upgrades and differentiated strategies, particularly in offshore wind power [12] Global Expansion - Goldwind Technology has established a presence in 15 countries, with an export capacity of 2.5 GW, while other companies like Yunda and Sany Heavy Industry are also expanding internationally [13] Financial Performance - The business model of wind power companies includes turbine manufacturing and wind farm operations, with the latter becoming the primary profit source due to increased competition in manufacturing [14][15] - Major companies have seen a recovery in gross margins, with Goldwind achieving a gross margin of 15.3% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from optimized business structures and cost management [20] Future Outlook - The wind power industry is expected to gradually separate from the photovoltaic market, with a clear trend of recovery in profitability [2] - The demand for wind power is anticipated to remain strong, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Gansu Energy indicates a significant investment in renewable energy projects, reflecting a broader trend among listed companies to enhance their renewable energy capacity in response to national policies and market demands [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Gansu Energy plans to invest in a 1 million kW integrated wind and solar project in Minqin, with a total investment of 4.089 billion yuan [1][2]. - The project will consist of 500,000 kW from wind power and 500,000 kW from solar power, with expected annual electricity generation of 1.099 billion kWh from wind and 1.015 billion kWh from solar [2]. - The investment recovery period for the project is estimated at 14.91 years, with a financial internal rate of return of 6.76% [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The surge in renewable energy project announcements is driven by four main factors: supportive national policies under the "dual carbon" goals, increasing market demand for clean energy, technological advancements reducing costs, and strategic needs for energy security [3]. - As of the first half of the year, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.65 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with solar power capacity growing by 54.2% and wind power capacity by 22.7% [3]. - The industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality first," facing challenges such as insufficient grid capacity and increased competition among projects [4][6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice promoting market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, which will require project holders to enhance their market transaction capabilities [5][6]. - This policy change aims to create a true market price for electricity, facilitating efficient resource allocation and guiding the healthy development of the renewable energy sector [5].

Group 1 - The seminar titled "Value Reconstruction, Co-creating the Future" focused on high-quality development in the capital market, gathering over 200 representatives from various sectors to explore innovative paths for capital market services to the real economy and promoting high-quality economic development in Guangzhou [1] - The event responded to the "New National Nine Articles" issued by the State Council, which outlines a clear development blueprint for China's capital market, leading to the introduction of nearly 50 supporting rules by the CSRC covering various aspects such as issuance, trading mechanisms, mergers and acquisitions, delisting supervision, and investor protection [1] - Liu Jipeng, a professor from China University of Political Science and Law, emphasized the key role of state-owned capital in revitalizing the stock market and its importance for stabilizing local finances through operational and transfer income [1] Group 2 - Liu Wenliang, a fund manager from GF Asset Management, analyzed how to identify high-quality companies with sustainable competitiveness and value creation potential under the requirements for high-quality development [2] - Yang Zhengwang, a senior index researcher from E Fund, reviewed the development of China's ETF market, highlighting its potential as an efficient investment tool in the context of asset allocation transformation and capital market reforms [2] - The roundtable discussion featured insights from various industry experts, including strategies for leveraging low-altitude economy opportunities, AI integration in core business, and investment focus on sectors like technology, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [2][3] Group 3 - The seminar served as a high-level platform for intellectual exchange and practical communication within Guangzhou's capital market, with the Guangzhou Fund Industry Association committing to facilitate efficient connections between policies, capital, and industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity, particularly wind and solar, is driving the need for energy storage solutions to address system stability and balance challenges in the power grid [1][3]. Company Summary - Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd. plans to invest in a 200 MW solar project in Weifang, Shandong, with a 62 MW/124 MWh energy storage system, with a dynamic investment of 1.093 billion yuan [2]. - The project is expected to have an average annual utilization of 1,491 hours, with 90% of the electricity sold at a benchmark price of 0.3949 yuan per kWh, and a post-tax investment return rate of 5.32% [2]. - The project marks the company's first multi-energy complementary integrated base outside Jilin Province, aligning with its renewable energy development strategy [2]. Industry Summary - The demand for energy storage is increasing as the installed capacity of renewable energy sources like wind and solar expands rapidly [3]. - Several companies, including Guangdong Water and Electricity and Trina Solar, are also investing in solar projects with integrated energy storage systems, indicating a broader industry trend [3][4]. - The storage industry is expected to experience explosive growth, with projections of new energy storage capacity reaching approximately 80 GW annually over the next three years, potentially reaching a cumulative scale of 230 GW by 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the Guosheng (Tieling) Future Energy Industrial Park project marks a significant investment in the renewable energy sector, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan aimed at establishing a comprehensive industrial chain for high-performance solid-state battery materials and advanced renewable energy technologies [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The Guosheng (Tieling) Future Energy Industrial Park project has a total investment of 3 billion yuan and covers an area of 230 acres, located at the former Jibao Automobile Factory in the Tieling Economic and Technological Development Zone [1] - The project will be developed in two phases, focusing on the production and recycling of high-performance solid-state battery anode and cathode materials, cell manufacturing, and Pack line operations [1] - The project aims to explore integrated applications of "wind-solar-storage" technologies and establish itself as a benchmark for the Northeast renewable energy industry [1] Group 2: Company Background - Guosheng Energy Co., Ltd. was established in 2022, with its main business activities including solar thermal power generation products, solar thermal power generation equipment, generator sets, photovoltaic equipment, and battery manufacturing [1] - Guosheng Technology (603778) has accumulated photovoltaic module orders totaling 2.685 billion yuan and has established five production bases in Jiangsu Xuzhou, Anhui Huaibei, Huainan, Suzhou, and Hebei Zhangjiakou, with additional bases under construction in Shandong Laizhou, Xinjiang Ruoqiang, Hebei Tangshan, and Inner Mongolia Ulat Front Banner [1]

Group 1 - Shandong Iron Investment Group has established Shandong Iron Investment Energy Group in Jinan, marking a significant step in accelerating the development of the new energy industry [1] - The new energy sector is a key component of the "353" industrial development strategy, focusing on an integrated model of "wind, solar, nuclear, and storage" [1] - The group aims to achieve a target of "100 billion assets, 10 billion revenue, leading in the province, and nationally competitive," while enhancing operational capabilities and accelerating power trading [1] Group 2 - Shandong Iron Investment Energy Group has a registered capital of 10 billion yuan and oversees several subsidiaries, including Shantou Green Energy Technology (Shanghai) and Shantou Energy Management [2] - The group currently has a total installed capacity of 1.8 GW and a connected capacity of 1.7 GW, with 41 renewable energy stations across 10 provinces [2] - The focus is on becoming a leading green energy investment and operation company, contributing to the national and provincial energy strategies [2]