Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]