【冠通研究】 沥青：高开下行 制作日期：2025年8月7日 【策略分析】 区间操作 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升4.3个百分点至33.1%，较去年同期高了6.7个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，8月份国内沥青预计排产241.3万吨， 环比减少12.9万吨，减幅为5.1%，同比增加35.3万吨，增幅为17.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率 涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于27.0%，处于近年同期偏低水平，受到资金和南方降雨高温 制约。上周，华东地区供应恢复，船发为主，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加1.26%至27.24 万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比继续回落，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。 美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将导致中国购买沥青原料的贴水幅度缩小。近期原油 价格偏弱震荡，沥青成本支撑走弱。工信部提到新一轮十大重点行业（包括石化、建材等）稳增长 工作方案近期将陆续发布，摸底石化、化工老装置清单，淘汰20年落后装置等政策更加利于远月预 期，对于近月实际影响有限。本周山东、华东个别炼厂将转产或者间歇停产，但部分地区降雨仍将 影响沥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The scale of foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management companies has seen a counter-cyclical growth since the second quarter, with notable increases in assets under management for firms like BNP Paribas and BlackRock [1][3]. Group 1: Growth of Foreign Wealth Management Firms - BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture wealth management companies have recently surpassed 600 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in scale, respectively, marking significant growth in 2023 [1][3]. - The rapid growth of these foreign firms is attributed to support from local bank channels and a focus on diversified investment strategies, including fixed income and multi-asset products [1][3][4]. Group 2: Performance of Domestic Wealth Management Firms - In contrast, many domestic wealth management companies experienced fluctuations in scale, with some reporting declines in June 2023, primarily due to stock market recovery and low bond market yields [1][7]. - As of June 2025, the total scale of domestic wealth management products reached 30.97 trillion yuan, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous years [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The current low interest rate environment has made fixed income assets a key tool for expanding scale, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from approximately 3% at the beginning of 2023 to around 1.6% [3][9]. - Many wealth management firms are focusing on fixed income products, with equity asset allocations remaining low due to market volatility, despite the strong performance of equity markets [3][4][9]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The bond market's low yields pose challenges for the expansion of wealth management scales, with expectations for supportive policies potentially emerging in late September or later [9][10]. - Institutions are adopting a range-bound trading strategy, anticipating limited adjustments in the bond market due to weak financing demand and a gradual recovery in inflation data [10].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and demand, with a notable increase in export volumes of electric vehicles from China, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [1] Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 63,860 CNY/ton and closed at 65,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.0% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - Trading volume reached 377,525 lots, while open interest decreased by 17,270 lots to 276,956 lots [1] - Total open interest across all contracts was 465,422 lots, down by 3,011 lots from the previous day [1] - The total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day, with a speculative ratio of 1.02 [1] Pricing Information - Current spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate range from 63,600 to 65,800 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 62,550 and 63,550 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 100 CNY/ton increase [1] - The futures market shows a premium of 500 CNY/ton for electric lithium carbonate [1] Demand and Supply Insights - Downstream enterprises exhibit low purchasing willingness, primarily relying on customer supply and long-term contracts to meet demand [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain prices, with transactions occurring mainly between traders and downstream companies [1] Export Trends - In April, China's automobile export volume reached 424,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - New energy vehicle exports totaled 186,000 units, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 32.6% and a year-on-year increase of 64.5% [1] - Pure electric vehicle exports reached 120,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [1] - Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports amounted to 62,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 19.9% and a year-on-year increase of 153.9% [1] Strategic Outlook - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to drive a rebound in the market, suggesting a range trading strategy with a recommendation for upstream entities to sell high for hedging [1]