晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 价格高位震荡 建议区间操作 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比持续回升，其中澳洲、巴西均回升显著，但到港量环比大 幅回落。从季节性规律以及今年主流矿山发运目标来看，外矿供给高峰期或已过，后期供给 压力或环比回落。 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存保持偏低水平，钢厂后期补库仍是支撑价格的核心因素之一； 港口库存结束连续 7 周的累积趋势，主要原因到港量环比回落且压港量有所增加，而疏港量 保持持续回升趋势。 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日铁矿石维持高位窄幅震荡，成材数据超预期以及房地产"补息"对盘面形成 短暂刺激，宏观方面仍偏弱，终端需求进入淡季，国内铁矿石需求季节性下滑，基差近期大 幅收缩，铁矿石并不存在独 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In September 2025, the direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the current volatility has risen [2]. - The short - term trend of various futures products varies. For example, gold is expected to rise above $3600 but shows an overbought phenomenon, while some products like steel are in a weak decline [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are - 0.67%, - 0.41%, - 1.16%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the next direction [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.8%. Use range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is expected to rise above $3600, but be cautious about chasing long positions. Silver long positions can be held or use unilateral call options to go long [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: The EC main contract rebounds and fluctuates. Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [2]. Black Futures - **Steel Futures**: The apparent demand for rebar declines, and the steel price maintains a weak downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the ratio of steel to ore [2]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The shipment rises to a high level, and the price fluctuates with steel. The range is 750 - 810. Go long on iron ore and short on coke [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The spot price fluctuates weakly. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal for arbitrage [2]. - **Coke Futures**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants is implemented, and the eighth round is blocked. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coke for arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Futures - **Copper Futures**: The center of the copper price rises. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price shows different trends. Pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the pressure level of 21000 [2]. - **Zinc Futures**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory accumulates. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Nickel Futures**: The dollar strengthens, and the nickel price fluctuates and falls. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The price weakens slightly, with a game between cost support and weak demand. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: The expected marginal supply increase pressures the oil price. Adopt a unilateral short - bias approach [2]. - **Urea Futures**: High supply pressure and lower Indian bids make the short - term market likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PX Futures**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September, with limited short - term drivers. Wait and see and pay attention to the support at 6600 and the oil price [2]. - **PTA Futures**: There is little supply - demand contradiction in September, with limited drivers. Wait and see, pay attention to the support at 4600 and the oil price, and mainly do a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [2]. - **Other Chemical Futures**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading strategies, such as short - term shock, range - bound operations, etc. [2] Agricultural Futures - **Livestock Futures**: The supply - demand contradiction of live pigs is limited. Pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm. The 11 - contract pays attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Grain Futures**: Corn spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates and adjusts. Short on rallies [2]. - **Oil Futures**: Palm oil maintains a strong shock consolidation and may冲击 $9500 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Futures**: Each agricultural product has different supply - demand and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions such as short - position closing, waiting and seeing, etc. [2] Special Commodity Futures - **Glass Futures**: The futures and spot inventories are at a high level, and the industry has a negative feedback. Hold short positions [2]. - **Rubber Futures**: The fundamentals are strong, and the rubber price fluctuates at a high level. Short on rallies if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The spot price rises slightly, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price range is 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: The spot price rises, and the polysilicon price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The situation has not improved, and the price is weak. Wait and see [2]. Tin Futures - The supply remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply and demand sides have various influencing factors, and policies are more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Sections Strategy Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1%, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 241.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9 million tons (5.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 35.3 million tons (17.1%) [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to capital and southern rainfall and high - temperature constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week and is at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have shown weak fluctuations, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of ten key industries' (including petrochemical and building materials) stable - growth work plans will be released soon. Policies such as phasing out 20 - year - old backward petrochemical and chemical plants are more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 0.31% to 3,528 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,511 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,556 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest by 712 to 211,556 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract dropped to 222 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Xinjiang Meihuite and some Shandong refineries resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1%, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year but still at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared to January - May 2025 but remained negative. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, getting out of the consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending August 1, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to capital and southern rainfall and high - temperature constraints [4]. - Policy and finance: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 90.08 billion yuan year - on - year [4]. - Inventory: As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared to the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The scale of foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management companies has seen a counter-cyclical growth since the second quarter, with notable increases in assets under management for firms like BNP Paribas and BlackRock [1][3]. Group 1: Growth of Foreign Wealth Management Firms - BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture wealth management companies have recently surpassed 600 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in scale, respectively, marking significant growth in 2023 [1][3]. - The rapid growth of these foreign firms is attributed to support from local bank channels and a focus on diversified investment strategies, including fixed income and multi-asset products [1][3][4]. Group 2: Performance of Domestic Wealth Management Firms - In contrast, many domestic wealth management companies experienced fluctuations in scale, with some reporting declines in June 2023, primarily due to stock market recovery and low bond market yields [1][7]. - As of June 2025, the total scale of domestic wealth management products reached 30.97 trillion yuan, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous years [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The current low interest rate environment has made fixed income assets a key tool for expanding scale, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from approximately 3% at the beginning of 2023 to around 1.6% [3][9]. - Many wealth management firms are focusing on fixed income products, with equity asset allocations remaining low due to market volatility, despite the strong performance of equity markets [3][4][9]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The bond market's low yields pose challenges for the expansion of wealth management scales, with expectations for supportive policies potentially emerging in late September or later [9][10]. - Institutions are adopting a range-bound trading strategy, anticipating limited adjustments in the bond market due to weak financing demand and a gradual recovery in inflation data [10].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and demand, with a notable increase in export volumes of electric vehicles from China, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [1] Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 63,860 CNY/ton and closed at 65,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.0% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - Trading volume reached 377,525 lots, while open interest decreased by 17,270 lots to 276,956 lots [1] - Total open interest across all contracts was 465,422 lots, down by 3,011 lots from the previous day [1] - The total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day, with a speculative ratio of 1.02 [1] Pricing Information - Current spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate range from 63,600 to 65,800 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 62,550 and 63,550 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 100 CNY/ton increase [1] - The futures market shows a premium of 500 CNY/ton for electric lithium carbonate [1] Demand and Supply Insights - Downstream enterprises exhibit low purchasing willingness, primarily relying on customer supply and long-term contracts to meet demand [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain prices, with transactions occurring mainly between traders and downstream companies [1] Export Trends - In April, China's automobile export volume reached 424,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - New energy vehicle exports totaled 186,000 units, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 32.6% and a year-on-year increase of 64.5% [1] - Pure electric vehicle exports reached 120,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [1] - Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports amounted to 62,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 19.9% and a year-on-year increase of 153.9% [1] Strategic Outlook - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to drive a rebound in the market, suggesting a range trading strategy with a recommendation for upstream entities to sell high for hedging [1]