1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The glass industry is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with the daily melting of float glass dropping to a certain low level, and there are expectations for both cold repairs and ignitions in the future. The demand is weak in both reality and expectation, making it difficult to have a trend - based movement. The policy may also affect the supply, so changes in supply expectations should be monitored. The price rhythm is hard to grasp [1]. - The soda ash industry is mainly cost - priced. Although the supply side occasionally reduces production, new production capacities are gradually ramping up, and the daily output is at an absolute high. Without supply disruptions, the expectation of oversupply remains consistent, and the valuation has limited upward flexibility. As the cold repair expectations of float glass and photovoltaic glass resurface, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - In reality, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, resulting in a short - lived positive feedback between futures and spot. For soda ash, the production still has room to increase, and the capacity expansion cycle is not over, so the expectation of oversupply persists [1]. - The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The daily melting of float glass has declined, with both cold repair and ignition expectations. The demand is weak, and the policy may affect supply. The high middle - stream inventory needs to be digested [1]. - Soda ash: Cost - based pricing, new capacities are increasing, daily output is high, and there is an expectation of oversupply. The cold repair of glass will reduce rigid demand [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Glass: The overall demand is weak, with both cold repair and ignition expectations, and the middle - stream maintains high inventory. The 05 contract is more about expectations, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers. - Strategy: The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: - Spot prices: There was no change in the prices of various glass products on January 18, 2026, compared with the previous day [8]. - Futures prices: The glass 05 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1103 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 09 contract increased by 13 yuan to 1209 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The 01 contract decreased by 941 yuan to 0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100% [8]. - Production and sales: On January 16, 2026, the production - sales ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 135, 90, 91, and 105 respectively [9]. - **Soda ash**: - Spot prices: There was little change in the market prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions on January 16, 2026, compared with the previous day [10]. - Futures prices: The soda ash 05 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1192 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. The 09 contract increased by 3 yuan to 1259 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1115 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: There are still some glass production lines with cold repair expectations to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the supply is still shrinking [11]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively manage high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, and the market may have new expectations for supply - side policies. - There is still room for positive feedback between futures and spot for both glass and soda ash when the futures prices rise. - Shahe glass has ignition expectations, the high middle - stream inventory persists, and the far - month demand lacks upward flexibility, with differences in the degree of demand decline. - The second - phase first and second lines of Alxa's 100 - million - ton new production capacities are gradually ramping up, maintaining long - term supply pressure. The cold repair expectation of glass will affect the rigid demand for soda ash [14]. - Monitor the production - sales situation, spot prices of glass, and the spot trading situation of soda ash [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - Glass: The expectation of the main 05 contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is high, and the middle - stream has high inventory. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, but the demand is unclear [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structures - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, without a clear direction, as the supply - demand expectations are uncertain, and funds are on the sidelines [20]. - Soda ash: It maintains a C - shaped structure. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term situation may deteriorate again [21]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in losses, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are on the verge of break - even [37]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1210 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1080 - 1090 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [43]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 19 million tons, maintaining high export expectations [43]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 150,000 tons. There are still some cold - repaired production lines to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting is expected to decline further [49]. - **Soda ash**: The current daily output of soda ash has increased to over 110,000 tons. The first and second lines of the second - phase project in Alxa (with a total of 2.8 million tons) have been ignited and are gradually producing products [54]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Projections - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory remains high, and the spot pressure persists. As of the end of December, the deep - processing orders for glass were 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 8.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 7.5%. The terminal demand remains weak, and the middle - stream replenishes inventory at low prices [56]. - **Soda ash**: The total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 238,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 47,600 tons. With the cold repair expectation of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass remains high, with an inventory period of about 39 days, and the industry chain is in a state of oversupply. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. The rigid demand for soda ash declines slightly month - on - month, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [67]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass factories is 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory period is 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The upstream inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream [75]. - **Soda ash**: The inventory of soda ash is 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0023 million tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 0.837 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0005 million tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 0.738 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0018 million tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 0.3877 million tons (an increase of 0.00104 million tons). The total inventory of soda ash factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00127 million tons. The upstream inventory fluctuates at a high level [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market showed a bottom - up rebound last week, mainly due to the impact of the news about accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, as well as the continuous production cut under profit losses and cost support. The fundamentals of ferroalloy are characterized by weak supply and demand. The future production of ferroalloy is likely to decrease further, and the demand will decline as the molten iron production continues to decrease. The inventory of ferroalloy is at a high level. The upward space of ferroalloy prices is limited, but the downward space is also restricted by cost support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Positive factors**: The news of controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, continuous production cut under profit losses, cost support with some regions raising electricity prices, and the start of destocking of ferrosilicon enterprise inventory (with a week - on - week decrease of 16.28%) [2]. - **Negative factors**: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The profitability of steel enterprises has fallen below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises continued to increase (with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%), although the inventory accumulation speed slowed down significantly [2][5]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the main contract 2603 of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 5800, and that of the main contract 2603 of silicomanganese is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - **Base - spread, month - spread and hedging arbitrage strategy suggestions**: All strategies suggest waiting and seeing [5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range forecast of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.49% and a historical percentile of 17.5% (3 - year). The monthly price range forecast of silicomanganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.99% and a historical percentile of 3.3% (3 - year) [5]. - **Hedging suggestions**: For inventory management, if the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 15% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5800 - 6000 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 6000 - 6200 to prevent inventory depreciation losses. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5200 - 5300 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [5]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Ferroalloy has maintained a production - cut trend recently, and the magnesium ingot output in November increased by 7.7% month - on - month, continuing the production - increase trend [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's one - year loan prime rate and November social electricity consumption. Next Wednesday: The number of initial jobless claims in the US. Next Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - volume and capital interpretation**: Analyzed the unilateral trends and capital movements of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as well as their price - volume relationships and historical data [11]. - **Base - spread and month - spread structure**: Considered factors such as the improvement of downstream steel profits, the control of high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects, the production cut of ferrosilicon inventory, the slowdown of silicomanganese inventory accumulation, the decline of steel mill profitability, and the decrease of molten iron production and its impact on ferroalloy demand [12]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The downstream demand is gradually weakening. Steel mills purchase on demand, and the profit of ferroalloy production enterprises is gradually in the red. Due to the decline of ferroalloy production profit and seasonal laws, the market has little expectation for the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and it is expected to maintain the production - cut trend [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between ferrosilicon export profit and export volume, and other related factors [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Supply side**: The downstream demand has entered the off - season. The previous continuous decline of ferroalloy production profit does not support the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and the possibility of production - cut drive by manufacturers is increasing. It is expected that the ferroalloy production will decline [63]. - **Demand side**: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The high inventory of ferroalloy itself also further suppresses the demand [63]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past five years, with great inventory pressure. Inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cut [63]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese weekly production, and the relationship between production profit and production [66][67]. 3.5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese demand from five major steel products, and the relationship between demand and factors such as molten iron production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and steel product production profit [70][71]. 3.5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt quantity, and total inventory, and their seasonal characteristics [85][86].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Treat the single - side at low - level oscillation; conduct rolling operations on the hot - roll futures - spot positive spread or assist the spot with option strategies [3] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [3] 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is not overly optimistic due to limited information on incremental stimulus policies. The new steel export license system will help the long - term high - quality development of the steel industry, but the steel export market needs time to re - balance. The current supply - demand structure is weak, and the price of furnace materials is under pressure. The futures price valuation is relatively low, and short - chasing is not recommended. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may be boosted in the short - term, but the fundamentals are weak, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulating. - The coking coal and coke markets had a sharp decline and then showed signs of stabilization. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is expected next week. The market sentiment is weak. - The iron ore price is under pressure due to the continuous decline of molten iron and rising port inventory. The price decline may slow down after the molten iron stabilizes, and short positions can be held and considered for stop - profit at the lower limit of the range. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - Macro: The US cut interest rates in December as expected, and domestic meetings were held. The information on incremental stimulus policies is limited, and market sentiment is not overly excited. - Industry news: The steel export license system is beneficial to the long - term development of the industry. The market has a neutral reaction to it, and the steel export market needs time to re - balance. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand structure is weak in the weekly perspective. The price of furnace materials is under pressure, and the de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. There may be some inventory replenishment in the industry later, and the molten iron output may decline further before winter - stock replenishment. - Valuation: The basis and molten iron margin are large, and industry profits are low, indicating a relatively low futures price valuation, so short - chasing is not recommended. [3] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Policy: The government will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, which may boost the short - term sentiment of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon prices. - Fundamentals: Steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, direct demand is weakening, and the negative feedback pressure is accumulating. Alloy factories have poor profits but high production, with supply exceeding demand and rapid inventory accumulation. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is expected next week. The market sentiment is weak, with most auctions failing. The coking coal price is also declining. - Futures: Affected by the off - season, domestic meetings, and export control, the black chain index declined, and coking coal and coke led the decline. On Friday night, they rebounded after pricing in the expectation of six rounds of price cuts, showing signs of stabilization. - Market sentiment: The weakening of steel supply - demand, the new steel export policy, and the less - than - expected tone of domestic meetings on finance and real estate have led to a pessimistic market sentiment. Attention is paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - stock replenishment next week. [3] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: The molten iron output has continuously declined to about 2.29 million tons without signs of stabilization. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price is under pressure. - Outlook: The molten iron is expected to stabilize at the end of the month, and steel mills will gradually resume production in January, with pre - production inventory replenishment. The decline of iron ore price may slow down, and short positions can be held and considered for stop - profit at the lower limit of the range. [3] Futures and Spot Market Data on December 12 - **Futures Market** - Far - month contract closing prices: RB2610 was 3093 yuan/ton (- 0.83%), HC2610 was 3239 yuan/ton (- 0.77%), etc. - Near - month contract closing prices: RB2605 was 3060 yuan/ton (- 0.87%), HC2605 was 3232 yuan/ton (- 0.83%), etc. - Inter - month spreads: RB2605 - 2610 was - 33 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton), etc. - Spreads/ratios/profits: The hot - roll to rebar spread was 172 yuan/ton (with a change of 3 yuan/ton), etc. [1] - **Spot Market** - Rebar prices: Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin was 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), etc. - Hot - roll prices: Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton), Hangzhou was 3270 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. - Other prices: Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Platts Index was 105.2 (with a change of 0.2), etc. - Basis: HC main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton change), RB main contract was 190 yuan/ton (with a change of 9 yuan/ton), etc. [1]