齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 范佳 全省法院还做优做细司法便民举措，严格落实立案登记制，强化"两状"示范文本推广应用。深入推进繁 简分流，规范小额诉讼程序、简易程序适用。深入推进"有信必复"，回复群众来信2.9万件。审结国家 赔偿案件380件，决定赔偿1527.8万元，办理司法救助案件1779件，发放司法救助金5370.1万元。 在兑现当事人胜诉权益方面，去年全省法院深化综合治理执行难工作格局，执结案件75.1万件，执行到 位金额1508.9亿元。部署"护航民生2025"集中执行，为劳动者讨回工资15.6亿元。加大拖欠企业账款案 件专项执行力度，执行到位金额42.9亿元。开展"执行工作规范提升三年行动"，对6757家企业采取"活 封活扣"，办理"带封过户"房产256套。加大执行攻坚力度，发布失信名单11万人（次），限制高消费 61.3万人（次）。健全交叉执行机制，由异地法院执行1.6万件，执行到位金额41.9亿元。 在弘扬社会主义核心价值观方面，全省法院审结虚假诉讼犯罪案件54件、涉缅北跨境电诈等案件1470 件，坚决惩治网络暴力、"网络水军"造谣引流等违法犯罪。审结婚约财产纠纷3825件，持续推动整治高 额彩礼。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment declined last week, ferroalloys showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fluctuating downward. The industrial side's hedging at high prices suppressed the price increase. Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side and may show a bottom - oscillating trend after the short - term correction [2]. - The production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and the production reduction trend has gradually flattened and turned upward, with production starting to gradually recover. However, the demand improvement is limited, and high inventory further suppresses demand. De - stocking may still need to be achieved through production cuts [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment decline last week led to a fall - back in ferroalloys. Industrial hedging at high prices restricted price increases. Silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week, but its warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96%. Silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.48% week - on - week [2]. - On the supply side, the decline in hot - metal production last week reduced the demand for ferroalloys. Although the profit of ferroalloys has recovered recently, the downstream demand is weak, and the driving force for production reduction is not strong, with production expected to fluctuate slightly around the current level. Silicon - iron production decreased by 0.40% and silicon - manganese production decreased by 0.23% week - on - week [2]. - On the demand side, the decline in hot - metal production reduced the demand for ferroalloys. The downstream five major steel products may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation state, also reducing the demand for ferroalloys [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. - Price range: The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton. - Basis strategy: Wait - and - see. - Calendar - spread strategy: Wait - and - see. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait - and - see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Ferroalloy price range forecast: The price range of silicon - iron in the next month is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.8%. The price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.18% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.5% [7]. - Ferroalloy hedging: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Anti - involution expectations; accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects effectively from next year; the 15th Five - Year Plan; magnesium ingot production increased by 7.7% month - on - month in November; downstream steel profits gradually improved; silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week; silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [9][10]. - **Negative information**: Not clearly listed in a summarized form, but factors such as the decline in hot - metal production and high inventory of silicon - manganese are negative factors [2]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the US will announce the weekly initial jobless claims [17]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar - spread Structure - Silicon - manganese warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96% week - on - week. The silicon - manganese inventory base is at a five - year high, with great de - stocking pressure. The improvement in ferroalloy profits may lead to a continued increase in production, putting pressure on supply [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The marginal improvement of ferroalloy profits led to a weakening of the motivation for production cuts, and production began to increase slightly month - on - month [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [62]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - On the supply side, the production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and production has started to gradually recover. On the demand side, although hot - metal production may stop falling and steel production has increased month - on - month, the downstream consumption demand is difficult to rise sustainably in the off - season, and the improvement in ferroalloy demand is limited. High inventory further suppresses demand, and de - stocking may require production cuts [63]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly production of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, as well as the relationship between production profit and production, and the relationship between hot - metal production and ferroalloy production, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [66][67][68]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly demand for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in the five major steel products, as well as the relationship between hot - metal production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and ferroalloy demand, and the relationship between ferroalloy export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [70][71][74]. 3.5.4 Inventory - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, including enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt inventory, and total inventory, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [85][90][92].

Core Points - The Shanghai Municipal Committee's 12th Plenary Session emphasized the implementation of the 20th National Congress and the importance of Xi Jinping's speeches during his inspections of Shanghai, focusing on the development goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming economic and social development tasks for the next year [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The session highlighted that the 14th Five-Year period has been extraordinary, with significant achievements in building a modern socialist international metropolis with global influence [3][4] - By 2035, Shanghai aims to be a world-class modern socialist international metropolis, with the 15th Five-Year period being crucial for comprehensive development and transformation [4][6] - The main goals for the 15th Five-Year period include achieving high-quality development, enhancing urban core functions, and improving social civilization levels [6][8] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The session outlined the need to accelerate the construction of the "Five Centers" (economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation) to enhance urban competitiveness [7][8] - It emphasized the importance of high-level reform and opening up, fostering a new open economic system, and aligning with international trade rules [8][12] - The session called for optimizing urban development space and promoting coordinated regional development, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta [8][12] Group 3: Social and Cultural Development - The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing cultural soft power and promoting socialist core values to build a socialist international cultural metropolis [9] - It highlighted the need to improve people's livelihoods, focusing on employment, social security, and public services to meet the growing demands for a better life [9][12] - The session also called for a green and low-carbon transformation, emphasizing ecological improvement and sustainable development [9][12] Group 4: Governance and Leadership - The session underscored the necessity of strengthening the Party's leadership and ensuring effective governance to achieve the goals set for the 15th Five-Year Plan [10][11] - It emphasized the importance of risk management and maintaining social order while enhancing urban governance capabilities [10][13] - The meeting concluded with a call for collective efforts to ensure a strong start for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on economic recovery and development [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market showed a bottom - up rebound last week, mainly due to the impact of the news about accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, as well as the continuous production cut under profit losses and cost support. The fundamentals of ferroalloy are characterized by weak supply and demand. The future production of ferroalloy is likely to decrease further, and the demand will decline as the molten iron production continues to decrease. The inventory of ferroalloy is at a high level. The upward space of ferroalloy prices is limited, but the downward space is also restricted by cost support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Positive factors**: The news of controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, continuous production cut under profit losses, cost support with some regions raising electricity prices, and the start of destocking of ferrosilicon enterprise inventory (with a week - on - week decrease of 16.28%) [2]. - **Negative factors**: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The profitability of steel enterprises has fallen below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises continued to increase (with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%), although the inventory accumulation speed slowed down significantly [2][5]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the main contract 2603 of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 5800, and that of the main contract 2603 of silicomanganese is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - **Base - spread, month - spread and hedging arbitrage strategy suggestions**: All strategies suggest waiting and seeing [5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range forecast of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.49% and a historical percentile of 17.5% (3 - year). The monthly price range forecast of silicomanganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.99% and a historical percentile of 3.3% (3 - year) [5]. - **Hedging suggestions**: For inventory management, if the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 15% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5800 - 6000 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 6000 - 6200 to prevent inventory depreciation losses. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5200 - 5300 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [5]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Ferroalloy has maintained a production - cut trend recently, and the magnesium ingot output in November increased by 7.7% month - on - month, continuing the production - increase trend [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's one - year loan prime rate and November social electricity consumption. Next Wednesday: The number of initial jobless claims in the US. Next Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - volume and capital interpretation**: Analyzed the unilateral trends and capital movements of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as well as their price - volume relationships and historical data [11]. - **Base - spread and month - spread structure**: Considered factors such as the improvement of downstream steel profits, the control of high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects, the production cut of ferrosilicon inventory, the slowdown of silicomanganese inventory accumulation, the decline of steel mill profitability, and the decrease of molten iron production and its impact on ferroalloy demand [12]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The downstream demand is gradually weakening. Steel mills purchase on demand, and the profit of ferroalloy production enterprises is gradually in the red. Due to the decline of ferroalloy production profit and seasonal laws, the market has little expectation for the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and it is expected to maintain the production - cut trend [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between ferrosilicon export profit and export volume, and other related factors [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Supply side**: The downstream demand has entered the off - season. The previous continuous decline of ferroalloy production profit does not support the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and the possibility of production - cut drive by manufacturers is increasing. It is expected that the ferroalloy production will decline [63]. - **Demand side**: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The high inventory of ferroalloy itself also further suppresses the demand [63]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past five years, with great inventory pressure. Inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cut [63]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese weekly production, and the relationship between production profit and production [66][67]. 3.5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese demand from five major steel products, and the relationship between demand and factors such as molten iron production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and steel product production profit [70][71]. 3.5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt quantity, and total inventory, and their seasonal characteristics [85][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference last week, the overall tone was moderate, with no mention of real - estate support policies. The pricing focus of the steel market has returned to fundamentals, and the previous macro - premium has been reversed. [1] - The supply of molten iron is decreasing due to seasonal patterns and steel enterprise profitability. However, recent raw material price concessions have improved blast furnace and electric furnace profits, potentially slowing down the steel production cut. [1] - Seasonal weakness in demand is the core issue for steel prices. Real - estate steel demand is shrinking, and cold weather restricts construction. New steel export regulations may reduce exports next year, weakening the support for steel prices. [1] - The overall inventory of the five major steel products is decreasing. Rebar inventory reduction is relatively healthy, but hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is slower than expected. [1] - The main contradiction currently lies in the furnace materials. Iron ore port inventory is increasing, and its valuation is high, but there is support from winter stockpiling. Coking coal supply is relatively abundant, and its price is weak, but it rebounded at night due to anti - involution news. [1] - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3000 - 3400. [1] Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level support has faded, and the steel market is back to fundamentals. [1] - Supply: Molten iron production is decreasing, but profit improvement may slow the production cut. [1] - Demand: Seasonal weakness, real - estate demand decline, and potential export reduction. [1] - Inventory: Rebar inventory reduction is better than hot - rolled coil. [1] - Furnace materials: Iron ore has high inventory and valuation, with winter - stockpiling support; coking coal supply is abundant. [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The rebar range may be 2900 - 3300, and the hot - rolled coil range may be 3000 - 3400. [5][6] - **Hedging Strategies**: Positive spreads for finished products have a high profit - loss ratio; shrink the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference. [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: Rebar 01 contract may range from 2900 - 3300 with a volatility of 12.83% (24.5% percentile); hot - rolled coil 01 contract may range from 3100 - 3500 with a volatility of 10.54% (7.49% percentile). [7] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options. [7] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - **Negative Information**: The basis is gradually weakening. [11] 2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size. [14] - Next Tuesday: US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Basis**: No significant changes in the term structure of rebar, still in a deep Contango structure; the far - month of hot - rolled coil shows a Contango structure. [23] - **Hot - Rolled Coil to Rebar Price Difference**: Spot and futures price differences may continue to shrink. [20] - **Term Structure**: Rebar's term structure is stable, and hot - rolled coil's far - month shows Contango. [23] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: There are different seasonal patterns for rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads. [27][28][29] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Steel mill profitability has dropped below 40%, but blast furnace and electric furnace profits are improving, reducing the motivation for production cuts of the five major steel products. [30] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - There are various indicators for tracking hot - rolled coil export profits, such as seasonal patterns and relationships with export volumes and orders. [49] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Steel production (rebar and hot - rolled coil) has decreased, and inventory has also decreased slightly. Molten iron production and scrap consumption have decreased. [70] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Production is affected by profitability, furnace maintenance, and raw material consumption. Different steel products have different production trends. [76][77][80] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - There are various consumption forecasts for different steel products, and inventory levels also vary among different steel products. [90][93][103]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Ferroalloys are currently in a bottom - oscillating trend, with support from the cost side and suppression from high inventory and weakening downstream demand [2]. - The supply of ferroalloys is likely to continue to decrease due to seasonal patterns and declining profits, while the demand is expected to decline as hot metal production decreases [2]. - The high inventory of ferroalloys further restricts demand, and destocking may require production cuts [2]. - Despite the weak fundamentals, news about anti - involution competition and green - low - carbon transformation may cause a short - term rebound in ferroalloy prices, but price increases may stimulate hedging and suppress prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply**: Ferroalloy production generally shows a decreasing trend. Last week, silicon - manganese production increased slightly by 0.68% week - on - week, while silicon - iron production decreased by 2.30% week - on - week. Future production is likely to decrease further due to corporate losses [2]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to fall, and high inventory also inhibits demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese enterprise inventories are at the highest levels in the past five years. Last week, silicon - manganese enterprise inventory increased by 1.73% and silicon - iron enterprise inventory increased by 7.16% week - on - week [2]. - **Trading Logic**: Near - term trading is based on cost support and weakening demand; long - term trading is influenced by anti - involution expectations and green - low - carbon transformation policies [4][5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategies**: All strategies (basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage) recommend waiting and seeing [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon - iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.32% and a historical percentile of 32.5% in three years. The monthly price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 12.21% and a historical percentile of 14.5% in three years [5]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, sell 15% of ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) when the price of silicon - iron is 5800 - 6000 and silicon - manganese is 6000 - 6200. For procurement management, buy 25% of ferroalloy futures when the price of silicon - iron is 5200 - 5300 and silicon - manganese is 5300 - 5400 [5]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Ferroalloys are in a production - cut trend; magnesium ingot production in October increased by 21.96% month - on - month; downstream steel profits are gradually improving; anti - involution competition news and green - low - carbon transformation policies [6][7]. - **Negative Information**: Steel mill profit margins fell below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing; hot metal production is decreasing, reducing ferroalloy demand; ferroalloy enterprise inventories are increasing [7]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and November year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size. - Next Tuesday: The US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements**: Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, with the silicon - iron contract in a backwardation structure at certain stages. The basis has narrow fluctuations, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread may weaken further [10][11]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Downstream demand is weakening, and ferroalloy production enterprises are gradually incurring losses. The market expects ferroalloy production to continue to decrease [27]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume [57]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Supply: Ferroalloy production is expected to decline due to weakening downstream demand and falling production profits. - Demand: The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease as hot metal production declines. - Inventory: High inventory levels require production cuts for destocking [58]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Ferroalloy production is affected by production profits and seasonal patterns, and is expected to maintain a decreasing trend [62]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The demand for ferroalloys is related to hot metal production, steel enterprise profitability, and the production of downstream products such as magnesium ingots and steel products [66][68]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Projections - The inventory of ferroalloys is at a high level, and the inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese is expected to change according to production and demand [82][89].