Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's global commodity research team maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, despite recent price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent correction in gold prices is viewed as healthy and necessary after a significant increase of over 30% since mid-August [3]. - In the eight weeks leading up to October, global gold ETFs added 268 tons, with a nominal inflow of $33 billion, indicating strong demand from Western investors [3][5]. - The price of gold has retreated to a key support level between $3,944 and $4,000, with expectations of renewed buying interest from central banks and consumers as the market stabilizes [3][5]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The model predicts that by 2026, total investor demand, including ETFs, futures, and central bank purchases, will average 566 tons per quarter [5]. - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 760 tons of gold annually over the next two years, remaining significantly above pre-2022 levels [6]. - Gold ETFs are projected to attract approximately 360 tons of inflows by the end of 2026, driven by concerns over inflation and U.S. debt sustainability [6]. Group 3: Silver Market Outlook - The report also expresses optimism for silver, forecasting a price of $56 per ounce by the end of 2026, as the gold-silver ratio is expected to return to the range of 85-90 [7]. Group 4: Short-term Risks - The quantitative and derivatives strategy team at Morgan Stanley warns of short-term risks, citing a record imbalance in gold ETF options and drawing parallels to the market conditions before a significant correction in 2006 [2][8]. - The current market sentiment is described as overheated, with momentum indicators and implied volatility at extreme levels [9]. Group 5: Potential Risks to Outlook - The primary risk to the bullish outlook is a sharp slowdown in central bank purchases, which have been crucial for supporting gold prices [13]. - Jewelry demand has been negatively impacted by rising gold prices, with a 14% decline in weight terms despite a 21% increase in value terms in Q2 [14]. - High gold prices may lead to increased recycling of old jewelry, potentially reducing net jewelry demand significantly [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing short-term weak adjustments following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with profit-taking and bearish sentiment dominating the market [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On September 18, gold opened at $3659.80 per ounce, reached a high of $3672.90, and then dropped to a low of $3627.82, closing at $3644.22, marking a daily decline of $15.58 or 0.43% [1][3]. - The volatility for the day was $45.08, indicating significant price fluctuations [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Fed's interest rate cut led to profit-taking, and Powell's comments on monetary policy were less dovish than market expectations, reducing bullish momentum [3][5]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw a significant drop, the largest in nearly four years, which negatively impacted gold prices [3]. Short-term Outlook - Gold is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially testing support levels around $3600 or $3540 due to reduced bullish momentum and the strengthening U.S. dollar [3][5]. - The market is currently operating below the 5-10 day short-term moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment [3][9]. Long-term Perspective - Despite short-term adjustments, the structural bull market for gold remains intact, supported by the Fed's projected rate cuts and ongoing economic concerns [5][7]. - Historical trends suggest that during rate-cutting cycles, gold prices typically maintain an upward trajectory, with potential to reach above $4000 in the future [5]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have repeatedly tested the mid-line support since last year, indicating a potential for upward movement despite current bearish pressures [7]. - The daily chart indicates a strengthening bearish sentiment, with a focus on resistance levels around $3645 or $3660 and support levels at $3620 or $3600 [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the implementation of tariff policies in April 2025, gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility, driven by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a pressured US dollar, cautious Federal Reserve policy expectations, and heightened global risk aversion [1] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with tariffs and geopolitical instability acting as key factors [1] - The recent downturn in US equities has led to a strong asset allocation demand for gold from European and American funds, making gold a significant beneficiary of the current US stock market decline [1] Group 2 - The narrative of a collapse in dollar credit is emerging, with structural dollar depreciation benefiting gold as a primary asset, alongside central bank gold purchases reflecting this trend [2] - The pricing framework for TIPS has become ineffective, as market risk aversion has begun to dominate gold pricing, influenced by changes in the dollar credit system and central bank purchasing behavior [5] - Central banks view gold as an alternative to the dollar, with geopolitical factors driving its pricing, and concerns over weak US stocks and the dollar contributing to the recent increase in global ETF gold holdings [6] Group 3 - The pricing logic of gold is likely changing, with gold no longer being merely an appendage to the dollar system but gradually becoming a rival to it [8] - The true signal for asset price revaluation is found in gold prices rather than in the RMB to USD exchange rate or interest rate paths, indicating that RMB gold prices are becoming the true monetary anchor for China [8] - Current RMB gold prices are more aligned with a "Shanghai-led" pricing model rather than the previous "USD gold price and exchange rate" triangular conversion [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in ETF trading volumes on the Singapore Exchange, particularly in gold ETFs, driven by central bank purchases and inflation concerns [1][2] - In Q1 of this year, the average daily trading volume of ETFs on the Singapore Exchange increased by 37% year-on-year, with gold ETFs experiencing a remarkable 66% growth [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF has seen net inflows for ten consecutive months, with its unit price reaching a historical high and a year-to-date return of 16% [1] Group 2 - The mutual fund scheme between China and Singapore has expanded, with the total asset management scale of the nine ETFs exceeding 700 million Singapore dollars as of the end of March [2] - Stock ETFs have shown a clear divergence, with Singapore, Japan, and Vietnam leading in performance, achieving average returns of 6.2%, 5.7%, and 4.5% respectively in Q1 [2] - The decline in U.S., Indian, and Indonesian ETFs is attributed to high interest rates affecting valuations, commodity price fluctuations, and currency depreciation, with average returns of -4.0%, -4.2%, and -12.6% respectively [2]

由于关税引发的衰退和滞胀风险，摩根大通认为，黄金的结构性牛市将继续增强。 摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer团队在22日的研报中预测， 黄金价格将于2025年第四季度达到均价3675美元/盎司，并在2026年第二季度突破4000美元/盎司关 口。 | Figure 1: JPM gold & silver price forecasts | | --- | | | | 4Q2024A | A WE SCHERESS: WARRENDER BREIN SECTION SECTION SEE WINNER 2024A | 1Q2025A | 202025 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | 2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 | 3Q2026 | 4Q2026 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | New | 2,664 | 2,389 | 2,872 | 3.400 | 3,515 | 3 675 | 3,365 | 3,840 ...