Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been experiencing high volatility since June, with a recent decline of nearly 3%, but the underlying logic for a long-term bullish trend remains intact due to expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by global central banks and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3] Market Analysis - As of June 26, the London gold price fluctuated around $3,333 per ounce, showing a recovery trend despite geopolitical tensions, indicating that the market is reassessing gold's value as a non-credit asset [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices during the Iran conflict was influenced by rising oil prices, which diluted gold's safe-haven status [2] - The global political and economic restructuring is increasing uncertainty, making gold an important hedging tool, especially when geopolitical indices are high [2][3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with the World Gold Council reporting that over 1,000 tons of gold have been accumulated annually in the past three years, significantly higher than the previous decade's average of 400-500 tons [4][5] - The European Central Bank noted that gold has surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset globally, accounting for 21% of total reserves [4] Investment Trends - There is a growing interest in gold investment products, particularly gold ETFs, with total assets reaching 101.9 billion yuan, a 43% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Despite some outflows in May, the demand for gold ETFs remains strong, with a notable increase in holdings and inflows compared to historical levels [6] - Investors are shifting their preferences towards stable value assets, such as high-dividend ETFs and gold, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising geopolitical risks [9] Price Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to rise further due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, with projections indicating that gold could reach new highs by 2025-2026 [3][5] - The current price range for gold is experiencing resistance around $3,400 to $3,500 per ounce, and further upward movement may require additional economic deterioration or geopolitical developments [7][8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on June 26, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.61%, the National Enterprises Index down by 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 0.26%, ending a four-day rising streak [1][2]. Sector Performance - Brokerage stocks, which had previously led the market, performed poorly, with notable declines including Guotai Junan down nearly 6% and other major firms like CICC and CITIC Securities also experiencing losses [2][5]. - Automotive stocks fell, with Geely Automobile dropping nearly 5%, and other companies like BYD, Xpeng, and NIO also seeing declines [6][7]. - Coal stocks decreased, with China Shenhua down over 4%, alongside other coal companies [8]. - Military stocks saw significant gains, with China Shipbuilding Defense rising over 6%, driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming military events [9]. - Gold stocks strengthened, with Shandong Gold and Lingbao Gold both increasing by over 6%, reflecting a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset [10]. - Tourism stocks surged, particularly Hong Kong Travel, which rose nearly 86%, supported by increased visitor numbers [11][12]. Individual Stock Highlights - Kuaishou saw a rise of over 3%, while major tech stocks like Xiaomi, Baidu, JD.com, and Tencent experienced slight increases, whereas Alibaba and Meituan faced declines [3][4]. - The stock of Rongchang Biotechnology fell sharply, dropping over 11% after reaching a new high, attributed to a licensing deal with VorBio [13][15]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that H-shares and A-shares brokerage stocks had seen average increases of 12.6% and 6.3% respectively over the past five days, indicating a potential growth opportunity in the financial sector [5]. - Ping An Securities highlighted the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks, suggesting continued focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [17].

Group 1 - Buffett's assertion that "the value of the dollar is being eroded by fiscal waste" highlights a critical concern regarding the U.S. economic governance system, indicating a potential crisis in trust among capital giants [1] - The U.S. national debt is increasing at an alarming rate, with an addition of $1 trillion every 100 days, leading to a projected fiscal deficit of 8.3% of GDP in 2024, significantly exceeding international warning levels [1] - Berkshire Hathaway has sold stocks for ten consecutive quarters, cashing out $134 billion in 2024, resulting in a cash reserve of $347 billion, surpassing Vietnam's annual GDP [1] Group 2 - Musk's comments reflect the challenges faced by industries, particularly highlighting the impact of tariffs and domestic manufacturing requirements on Tesla's production costs, which have surged by 19% due to the Trump administration's policies [1] - The Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act has imposed stringent requirements on domestic manufacturing, causing Tesla to lose $7,500 in tax credits due to insufficient battery localization [1] - SpaceX's military contracts are affected by the "America First" policy, which mandates a significant increase in domestic production, leading to a $3.2 billion cost overrun in the Starship development [1] Group 3 - The trend of wealthy individuals withdrawing from U.S. debt markets indicates systemic changes, with Buffett criticizing the monetization of debt through quantitative easing, which has inflated the debt-to-GDP ratio from 79% in 2019 to 126% [3] - Saudi Arabia's sovereign fund has reduced its U.S. debt holdings for 27 consecutive months, while Japan has decreased its share of U.S. debt from 23% to 14% [3] - Political paralysis is evident as partisan conflicts hinder debt ceiling agreements and regulatory approvals, pushing the U.S. towards a state of "capital without policy" [3]

Group 1: US-China Tariff Negotiations - The US and China are currently in a stalemate regarding tariff negotiations, with no significant progress reported [1] - US President Trump claims negotiations are ongoing, while China officially denies any discussions on tariffs [1] - The US is attempting to sway hesitant countries by suggesting that even the strongest parties are yielding in negotiations [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - A recent report indicates that gold prices have been driven up by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a weakening dollar, and heightened global risk aversion since April [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with geopolitical instability and tariffs expected to sustain prices [4] - The report suggests that the recent downturn in US equities has led to increased asset allocation towards gold, making it a significant beneficiary of the current market conditions [4] - The analysis indicates a potential short-term price correction for gold due to overbought conditions, with a possible price range of $3000 to $2700 serving as important support [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The upcoming week may see reduced volatility due to non-farm payroll data and the Labor Day holiday, but the downward adjustment trend from 3500 has not concluded [7] - The market is expected to continue its downward trajectory, with targets set at 3230 and 3165, which are key Fibonacci retracement levels [7] - Short-term support for gold is identified at 765 to 752, with resistance at 790 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the implementation of tariff policies in April 2025, gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility, driven by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a pressured US dollar, cautious Federal Reserve policy expectations, and heightened global risk aversion [1] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with tariffs and geopolitical instability acting as key factors [1] - The recent downturn in US equities has led to a strong asset allocation demand for gold from European and American funds, making gold a significant beneficiary of the current US stock market decline [1] Group 2 - The narrative of a collapse in dollar credit is emerging, with structural dollar depreciation benefiting gold as a primary asset, alongside central bank gold purchases reflecting this trend [2] - The pricing framework for TIPS has become ineffective, as market risk aversion has begun to dominate gold pricing, influenced by changes in the dollar credit system and central bank purchasing behavior [5] - Central banks view gold as an alternative to the dollar, with geopolitical factors driving its pricing, and concerns over weak US stocks and the dollar contributing to the recent increase in global ETF gold holdings [6] Group 3 - The pricing logic of gold is likely changing, with gold no longer being merely an appendage to the dollar system but gradually becoming a rival to it [8] - The true signal for asset price revaluation is found in gold prices rather than in the RMB to USD exchange rate or interest rate paths, indicating that RMB gold prices are becoming the true monetary anchor for China [8] - Current RMB gold prices are more aligned with a "Shanghai-led" pricing model rather than the previous "USD gold price and exchange rate" triangular conversion [8]