格隆汇10月4日｜金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示，黄金市场的这波上涨，直接原因在于全球黄 金市场投资专业人士预计，10月份美联储进一步降息的概率超过90%。美联储的降息决策，无疑是推动 金价上涨的关键"催化剂"。市场普遍预期本年度美联储仍会降息1—2次，这一预期极大地推动了黄金价 格的持续上涨。这些因素对黄金价格上涨的作用，还在持续释放，这也是市场普遍看多金价的原因之 一。除了美联储降息预期，地缘政治冲突的持续升级也为黄金价格上涨添了把火。美国政府停摆致使信 用受损，加剧了市场的避险情绪。同时，美国政府宣布允许向乌克兰出口射程超过1000公里的远程导 弹，使得地缘军事冲突进一步加剧。以色列在海上堵截对加沙的救援国际援助组织，也直接促使了黄金 价格的大幅上涨。此外，欧洲突然宣布对进口钢铁加征50%的关税，表明欧洲正式开启了地缘政治军事 博弈，导致黄金避险情绪在短期内迅速升温。 ...

黄金这波牛市走完了吗？这是早期香港第一金市场部负责人陈生一直关注的话题，在早期文章也提到对黄金保持上涨的立场。就在刚刚，北京时间9月17日 凌晨国际现货黄金再次迎来历史性一刻《黄金暴涨》，再次刷新了最新高位，距离3700美元/盎司仅差一步之遥，现报3685美元/盎司！黄金期货市场，差价 合约市场均是黄金买单，整个黄金多头趋势就像一头蛮牛，按都按不住！本轮黄金的上涨，主要还是维持了前面几个核心问题，全球经济，贸易，地缘局 势，货币政策等等，包括市场高度"认为"的高亢美联储降息潮！第一金PPLI平台市场部负责人陈生分几个核心重点分析黄金暴涨的利多因素。 香港第一金黄金暴涨3700 美元/盎司 今年黄金的价值已飙升39%，其年度价格涨幅有望超过新冠疫情或2007-09年衰退深渊时期的水平。自1979年以来，这种贵金属的期货价格从未在一年内如 此飙升，今晚黄金的上涨导火线，主要是特朗普不应再强制企业发布季度报告，美联储主席鲍威尔释放消息，降息幅度必须比他想得更大，印度与美国确定 了将在新德里举行贸易关税谈判，还有一个核心消息，中美就TikTok等双方关注的经贸问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的沟通，中国商务部国际贸易谈判 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a pullback, moving away from a two-week high, primarily due to a rebound in the US dollar [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish comments have strengthened market expectations for a potential rate cut in September, providing support for gold prices and limiting downside potential [1][2] - The current spot gold price is down 0.28%, trading at $3362.51 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index rebounded by 0.22% from a four-week low, reducing gold's appeal to non-dollar investors [2] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, estimated at 87%, with an overall expectation of a 48 basis point cut for the year [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US PCE price index report, expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, which could further influence Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The gold market remains in a bullish trend, with key support at 3355; if this level holds, there is potential for further upside [3][4] - The analysis suggests that gold could target higher levels at 3390 and 3410, provided it does not break below 3355 [3][4] - The market is currently focused on the implications of the anticipated rate cut, with expectations that a larger cut could lead to increased safe-haven demand for gold [3]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that President Trump stated "gold will not be subject to tariffs," leading to a decline in precious metal prices [2] - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are at $3403.9 per ounce, with a 0.00% change, while international spot gold is up 0.37% at $3354.26 per ounce [2][3] - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with a shift in sentiment following the release of non-farm payroll data [4] Group 2 - Upcoming discussions between President Trump and President Putin regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have eased geopolitical tensions, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July CPI data, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Analysts predict that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates, potentially suppressing gold prices [4] Group 3 - The China-U.S. trade talks resulted in a joint statement indicating a temporary suspension of additional tariffs on each other's goods starting August 12, 2025 [4] - The People's Bank of China reported gold purchases for nine consecutive months, with July purchases totaling 1.86 tons, suggesting potential upward movement in precious metal prices [5] - Analysts from 瑞达期货 suggest that long-term trends indicate a strong performance for precious metals, with a focus on whether gold can maintain above $3500 per ounce [5] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, with features such as T+0 trading [5] - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and its stability in relation to credit money supply is emphasized [5]

Group 1 - Gold exhibited a strong performance with a rebound after a dip, aligning with market expectations, influenced by Trump's comments and mixed U.S. data [1] - Trump's remarks about the Federal Reserve's leadership and potential rate cuts have heightened expectations for earlier rate reductions, providing support for gold [1] - Technical resistance levels for gold are noted at 3400/3403, with a trading strategy suggested to short initially and then consider long positions upon stabilization [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ announced a significant production increase in September, raising concerns about oversupply in the oil market [3] - Weak fuel demand data from the U.S. has compounded worries about supply exceeding demand, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [3] - A trading strategy for oil suggests maintaining a short position on rebounds, with recent price movements confirming this approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment for gold as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, leading to a potential test of the support level at 3212 for short positions, raising questions about the sustainability of the current bull market [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates a decline in the demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [1] - Short sellers are probing the support level at 3212, which could signal a critical point for market direction [1] - The ongoing discussion among analysts suggests that the bull market for gold may still be in play, despite the recent fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price has surged significantly, reaching $3,397 per ounce with a 2% increase on April 21, indicating a potential rise to $3,400 or even $3,500 [1] - The current upward trend in gold prices is attributed to historical levels of market sentiment driven by global tariff impacts, suggesting that the ongoing tariff conflict is a critical factor influencing gold price movements [1] - The domestic gold futures market, particularly the Shanghai gold, has also seen a notable increase, surpassing 800 yuan per gram, with a nearly 15% rise over 11 trading days, indicating a strong correlation with international gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The rapid acceleration in gold prices, both internationally and domestically, suggests a potential end to the upward trend, as steep price increases often indicate a nearing peak [4] - Investment strategies currently lean towards a cautious approach, with a recommendation to observe market movements rather than engage in new positions during this accelerated price rise [4]