宁证期货投资咨询中心 投资咨询业务资格： Z0012851 F3008987 2026 宏观年度报告 Buge 经济复苏缓慢，美国中期选举年 摘 要： 2025 特朗普的第二任期内，再次发动针对全球的关税大战，并以中美元首釜 山会晤告一段落。上半年全球经济复苏较为强劲，下半年关税效应凸显，经济有 所承压，整体来看 2025 年全球经济依然具有较大韧性，展望 2026 年，全球经济 或依然处于缓慢复苏的阶段，压力与挑战并存，但是主要经济体的发展阶段和央 行策略或有所分化。 证监许可【2011】1775 号 2025 年，美国经历了历史上最长政府停摆，很多经济数据无法及时追踪，从 目前来看，虽然美国通胀有持续走高的压力，就业数据也有所恶化，但整体来看 美国经济依然具有较大韧性，展望 2026 年，在中期选举及美联储高层更换的背 景下，降息周期持续，财政刺激不会缺席，美国经济依然不悲观。欧盟 2025 年 经济复苏整体不及预期，俄乌冲突没有根本性解决，拖累了欧盟的复苏动力和进 程，2026 年如果俄乌冲突彻底画上句号，那么全球经济增长动能或有所增加，欧 元区处于一个经济缓慢复苏，货币政策较为稳定的局面。日本由于通胀 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's strong opposition to the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, which imposes restrictions on investments in high-risk technologies related to China and aims to reduce military procurement from Chinese entities [1][3][5] - The act specifically targets rare earth minerals, requiring the U.S. military to cease using Chinese resources, and includes provisions for Taiwan, such as a five-year strategy for multilateral defense in the Taiwan Strait and a budget of up to $1 billion for Taiwan's security needs [3][5] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the act, stating it interferes with China's internal affairs and infringes on its sovereignty and development interests [5][7] Group 2 - China urges the U.S. to view its development and bilateral relations objectively, emphasizing the need to respect agreements made during the recent summit between the two nations and to avoid implementing negative clauses related to China in the act [7][9] - The article notes that President Trump signed the act quietly, indicating it may be a response from the Republican establishment against his administration, which includes provisions that contradict Trump's policies [9][11] - The voting results in Congress show significant bipartisan support for the act, with the Senate voting 77-20 and the House voting 312-112, indicating that even if Trump were to refuse to sign, Congress could still enforce it [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs on Canadian fertilizers and Indian rice to support domestic industries, raising concerns about potential global food price increases and the impact on American farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Targets and Rationale - The proposed tariffs target Canadian fertilizers and Indian rice, which are critical imports for the U.S. agricultural sector. Canada is the world's largest producer of potash, holding 45% of global reserves, while India is the leading rice exporter, accounting for 40% of global exports [3]. - The U.S. agricultural sector has faced challenges, with farm bankruptcies reaching 259 from April 2024 to March 2025, nearly doubling from the previous year, and farmers experiencing losses of $100-200 per acre [3]. Group 2: Economic and Political Considerations - The tariffs reflect a dual strategy of economic protectionism and geopolitical maneuvering. The U.S. aims to reduce its trade deficit with India, which reached $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4% increase from 2023, while also pressuring India regarding its imports of Russian oil [5]. - The tariffs may also serve as a response to previous trade disputes with Canada, particularly regarding automotive tariffs [5]. Group 3: Potential Impact on Farmers and Global Markets - There is skepticism about whether American farmers will benefit from the tariffs, as previous tariff policies have hindered U.S. agricultural exports, particularly to major buyers like China. Increased fertilizer costs could further burden farmers [6]. - The tariffs could have widespread repercussions. For Canada, the fertilizer industry supports 76,000 jobs and contributes 2% to total exports. A loss of the U.S. market could lead to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [8]. - For India, reduced rice exports could disrupt global supply chains, forcing India to seek new markets in Europe and Africa, potentially reshaping the global rice supply-demand landscape [8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Risks - Historical precedents suggest that U.S. tariff policies can have detrimental effects, as seen with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to a significant decline in global trade and increased unemployment [11]. - The current tariff strategy may repeat past mistakes, risking U.S. agricultural exports and stifling innovation in domestic industries due to prolonged protectionism [11].

除了华盛顿州，俄勒冈州和加利福尼亚州也在加大与中国的合作。俄勒冈州的参议长瓦格纳在10月率团 访问中国，行程安排得非常密集，走访了广东、北京、四川等10个城市。在与中国高层会谈时，他直接 表示，美中地方合作非常重要。俄勒冈州议会甚至早在9月就通过了一项决议，要求进一步深化与中国 的经贸合作，避免联邦政府的不确定性影响本州的经济利益。俄勒冈州2024年对中国的出口额近80亿美 元，其中蓝莓、车厘子等农产品在中国市场的热销，使得该州的经济与中国的合作变得更加紧密。 加利福尼亚州在对华关系方面的独立性也很强。2024年，加州州长纽森曾因联邦政府的关税政策与特朗 普政府对立，直接将其告上法庭，要求为加州争取更多自主权。纽森公开表示，加州与华盛顿特区的理 念完全不同。加州在与中国的合作方面一直积极推进，2024年对中国的出口高达310亿美元，这不仅促 进了当地经济发展，也吸引了大量投资。加州与中国的合作领域不仅限于贸易，还包括气候变化、绿色 科技、新能源等领域。 美国各州绕过联邦政府直接与中国开展交流的现象，正在成为越来越多人的关注焦点。过去，人们常常 关注美国总统和国会的动态，但如今，地方政府也渐渐成为影响中美关系的 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold is currently experiencing a downward trend, with signs of deterioration in its price pattern due to potential concessions from the U.S. on tariff issues, which may reduce safe-haven demand [1] - Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary indicate optimism regarding U.S.-China negotiations, suggesting that the imposition of new tariffs may be reconsidered, which could further impact gold prices negatively [1] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are facing resistance around $4095, with a likelihood of further declines in the short term [1] Group 2: Oil Market - India's cessation of Russian oil purchases may lead to increased buying from other oil-producing countries, providing weak support for oil prices [2] - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has stopped purchasing approximately 629,590 barrels of Russian oil daily, indicating a shift in sourcing for crude oil imports [2] - The halt in Russian oil purchases could disrupt the supply chain for Europe, which may need to seek alternative energy imports [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The focus of global financial markets is on the Federal Reserve and other central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December due to recent inflation data [3] - The latest CPI data shows U.S. core inflation at 3%, with a slowdown in growth, creating conditions favorable for a rate cut [3] - The dollar index is showing weak upward momentum, with significant resistance from long-term moving averages [3] Group 4: Market Events and Data - California Governor Newsom has officially acknowledged his presidential campaign intentions [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed that the U.S. is no longer considering imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, indicating a significant development in trade relations [5] - Scope Ratings has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating to AA- [5]

Core Viewpoint - Raghuram Rajan emphasizes that the inflation effects from tariffs have not fully manifested, and it is premature to assert that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates significantly in the near future [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The actual tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from approximately 3% to around 18%, and if two-thirds of these tariffs are passed on, inflation could rise by about one percentage point [3]. - There are indications that tariffs are being passed on, leading to rising commodity prices, but full pass-through will take time [3]. Group 2: Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. inflation rate has stabilized around 3% for the past two quarters, but there are concerns that policies from the Trump administration may significantly reduce immigration, potentially lowering demand and aiding in inflation reduction [3]. - Rajan argues that while reduced immigration may decrease supply, it also lowers demand, leading to a net effect that requires further observation before concluding that inflation is trending towards the 2% target [3]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Growth - There are worries regarding labor market data, with net job growth slowing, but it remains unclear if this will exert downward pressure on wage levels due to a shrinking labor supply [3]. - The Federal Reserve's actions to slow down interest rate cuts depend largely on economic performance, and despite trade uncertainties potentially suppressing investment, consumer resilience has exceeded expectations, particularly in AI investments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the current U.S. administration, under Trump, is characterized by a confrontational and exclusive approach towards other countries, prioritizing a sense of superiority and victory over rational and equitable negotiations [1] Group 1: U.S. Foreign Policy - The U.S. is depicted as willing to implement drastic measures against China's economy if it serves American interests without significant repercussions [1] - The approach taken by the U.S. is described as one of disdain and a desire to eliminate competition rather than engage in mutual benefit [1] - The article highlights that rational outcomes from negotiations with the U.S. are unlikely due to its current mindset focused on vanity and domination [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - The U.S. is increasingly reliant on aggressive negotiation tactics, as evidenced by the tariff disputes that arose in April [1] - The fear of reciprocal tariffs is not a primary concern for the U.S.; rather, the concern lies in the lack of engagement from other countries [1]

Core Points - The fourth round of US-China trade negotiations is set to take place in Madrid, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent under significant domestic pressure while China maintains a calm stance [1][3][5] - The negotiations are framed as a high-stakes game, with both sides employing strategic moves akin to a chess match, reflecting the ongoing tension in the trade relationship [3][5][9] - The choice of Madrid as the negotiation venue is seen as a strategic move by both parties, with the US aiming to signal unity with European allies and China seeking to showcase its cooperation with EU countries [8][11] Summary by Sections Negotiation Context - The US has been increasing tariffs, with a rapid escalation from 10% to 20% within a few months, while China has responded with measured countermeasures [5][9] - The US faces internal economic pressures, including rising consumer prices and complaints from retailers, which complicate its negotiation strategy [3][9][13] China's Position - China emphasizes dialogue and cooperation, asserting that it will not compromise on core interests, and has shown resilience in its economic performance [11][19] - The Chinese strategy includes strengthening economic ties with other countries, making it difficult for the US to isolate China [11][19] Media and Public Perception - The media narrative varies significantly between the US and China, with US outlets focusing on pressure and challenges, while Chinese media project stability and confidence [15][19] - The negotiations are characterized by a dramatic atmosphere, with global markets closely watching for potential outcomes and implications [20] Potential Outcomes - The negotiations are seen as a critical juncture, with the possibility of reaching a temporary agreement on tariffs that could ease market tensions, or a breakdown that could lead to further escalation [19][20] - The humorous commentary surrounding the potential impact on Spanish wine exports highlights the broader economic implications of the trade talks [8][19]

Group 1 - The "US-India tariff war" has escalated dramatically, with the US increasing tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50%, causing significant disruption in the Indian economy [1] - Indian exporters are facing immediate challenges, with prices skyrocketing and orders vanishing, particularly affecting the textile and seafood industries [1] - The sudden tariff increase could potentially lead to job losses for millions of workers in India, raising concerns among the Indian Exporters Association [1] Group 2 - India's Foreign Minister expressed strong discontent towards the US, highlighting the absurdity of the situation, especially given India's purchase of Russian oil to help stabilize global oil prices [2] - The tariff war is expected to have a comprehensive impact on India, with stock markets already declining and exports predicted to drop to $49.6 billion [2] - The Indian government is committed to helping businesses explore new markets in Latin America and the Middle East to mitigate the effects of the tariff increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of former President Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, suggesting that his attempts to undermine its independence could threaten the stability of the U.S. dollar and the broader financial system [1][5][10]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy and reduce debt costs ahead of the midterm elections [1][4][10]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to rising inflation and unemployment in the U.S., as well as the significant national debt of $36 trillion, which incurs over $1 trillion in interest annually [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to prevent financial crises, designed to be an independent entity that balances power between the government and private banks [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar and preventing inflation, as historical instances of political interference have led to severe economic consequences [9][11]. Group 3: Potential Consequences - Trump's actions could lead to a loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve, prompting global investors to sell off U.S. dollars and bonds, which could destabilize the financial system [10][12]. - The article warns that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence for personal political gain could have dire repercussions, as seen in past instances where political pressure led to rampant inflation [11][12].