Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant drop after reaching new highs, with spot gold prices falling sharply, indicating a volatile market influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors [2][3][5]. Price Movement - On October 21, spot gold prices dropped by 6.3% to approximately $4080 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013. The closing price was down 5.31%, the largest drop in nearly 12 years [2]. - On October 22, spot gold further declined, hitting a low of $4002 per ounce before recovering to around $4139 per ounce [2]. - COMEX gold futures also fell by 5.07% to $4138.5 per ounce on October 21 [2]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices since early 2025 saw prices rise from about $2650 per ounce to a peak of $4381 per ounce on October 20, 2025 [2]. - The decline in gold prices has negatively impacted gold-related stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold opening down over 7% on October 22 [2]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - The extreme market conditions were attributed to high levels of long positions in gold, leading to profit-taking by investors after a sustained price increase since September [3]. - Short-term risk factors have eased, including positive signals in U.S.-China trade relations and a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The rapid increase in gold prices had pushed the market into an overbought state, necessitating a technical correction [6]. - The current trading structure is considered fragile, as the recent price surge was primarily driven by investors and speculators rather than central bank interventions [6]. Future Outlook - The recent price correction is viewed as a normal occurrence and is not expected to alter the long-term upward trend of gold prices, despite ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [7]. - Historical trends suggest that after a prolonged increase in gold prices, adjustments of 20% to 40% may occur within the following year [8]. - The World Gold Council indicates that gold is likely to remain resilient, especially during stock market corrections, as long as there are no significant liquidity crises [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a strong oscillation, with short - term price decline due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment, but long - term strategic allocation is recommended as there are many uncertainties [1]. - Silver is in a range - bound oscillation, affected by the gold price, and attention should be paid to the support at 8700 [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. In the long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend as global copper mines are in short supply [1]. - Zinc is in a rebound. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and in the long - term, take short - selling opportunities on rallies [1]. - Lead is in a short - term rebound due to enterprise maintenance and cost support [1]. - Tin is in a short - term rebound as mine production resumption is slow and consumption is in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure as imports are high and the terminal is entering the off - season [1]. - Nickel is slightly stable at a low level, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rallies as the fundamental surplus remains [1]. - Lithium carbonate's rebound is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply is in surplus [1]. Summary According to Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Condition**: Gold prices plummeted and then stopped falling due to short - term reversals in geopolitical situations and approaching tariff deadlines. Silver lacks new driving forces [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: There are only two weeks left until Trump's tariff deadline. The US has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, and many other countries have not achieved substantial progress in trade negotiations with the US. Trump criticized the Fed chairman, and the Middle East situation is under control. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged as the world reduces its reliance on the US dollar and fiscal and monetary policies are both loose [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold is in an adjustment phase. Pay attention to the support around 760 and consider long - term investment. Silver is in a range - bound oscillation, and pay attention to the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - **Market Condition**: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and its center of gravity moved up. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures and spot all increased slightly, with an increase in trading volume and changes in inventory [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing TC has dropped. The domestic electrolytic copper production has increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and the LME spot premium has decreased. The terminal green copper demand is strong, offsetting the weakness in traditional demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold the previous long positions of copper. In the long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend of copper. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 79500] and London copper [9650, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: Zinc held above the integer - level mark, and the prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot all increased slightly. Trading volume decreased, and inventory decreased [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee has been raised. The domestic refined zinc production decreased in May and is expected to increase in June. Overseas and domestic zinc inventories are de - stocking against the season, and the downstream galvanizing enterprise's operating rate is affected by weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now due to positive macro and sector sentiment and inventory de - stocking. In the long - term, short on rallies as supply increases and demand is weak. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22500] and London zinc [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Condition**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices rebounded slightly [10]. - **Underlying Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has recovered, but the terminal is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports remain high, the domestic operating capacity has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has slightly increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range is [20000 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: Nickel prices were slightly stable, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: The overseas macro - environment has improved. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. The domestic refined nickel production has slightly decreased, but the inventory is sufficient, and the supply pressure is significant. The stainless steel terminal is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, with an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [117000 - 121000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Condition**: The main contract LC2509 slightly increased its positions and was strong throughout the day [14]. - **Underlying Logic**: Market rumors led to short - covering. Fundamentally, the supply is in surplus, and the supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Production has increased, and the terminal is in the off - season, with expected inventory accumulation. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [60500 - 61600] [15].

中辉有色观点 【基本逻辑】：①鲍威尔重申不急于降息。美联储主席鲍威尔向国会提交半年度货 币政策报告证词。鲍威尔表示，政策调整对经济的影响仍存在不确定性，但目前处于有 利位置，可以等待再考虑利率调整。他指出，最终的关税水平将决定其影响，关税可能 推高物价并对经济产生压力，对通胀的影响可能是短暂的，也可能会持续更长时间。② 关税谈判不顺利。面对 7 月 9 日美国对欧盟出口商品征收 50%关税的威胁，美国要求欧 盟做出被视为"不平衡、单方面"的让步，欧盟正考虑是否启动反制措施。③市场预期 中东局势可控。特朗普致电以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，要求其完全避免对伊朗采取任何攻 击行动。内塔尼亚胡告诉特朗普，他无法取消这次袭击，最终，（以色列）决定大幅缩 减攻击规模并取消对大量目标的攻击。伊朗总统表示，如果以色列不违反停火协议，伊 朗就不会违反。伊方已准备在谈判桌上进行对话。④逻辑主线。关税地缘变数较大，长 期全球降低美元依赖及财政货币双宽松趋势不变，黄金长牛逻辑不变。 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 【行情回顾】：鲍威尔拒绝降息、特朗普熄火中东，黄金有下挫。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | ...