| 网材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月1日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3130 | 3080 | 50 | 115 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | 0 | 145 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3020 | 3000 | 11 | 110 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2997 | 2995 | 2 | 133 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3015 | 3005 | 10 | 115 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | 72 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | 0 | -18 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Steel - The steel market follows the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Rebound short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price due to the expected decline in hot - metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. For the 2509 contract, short - selling at high levels around 1380 - 1430 is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Coking Coal - Spot fundamentals have improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels around 800 - 850 for the 2509 contract is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction is rising. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the change in coal prices [7]. Silicomanganese - Supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the change in coke prices [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. The basis of steel showed a weak trend [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs changed, and the profits of some regions increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot - metal output remained unchanged, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. Steel inventories decreased slightly [1]. Viewpoint - The steel market is affected by the raw material market and seasonal factors. Production is expected to remain high, and exports rebounded from a low level [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract declined significantly [4]. Supply and Demand - Global shipments decreased slightly, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and demand is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. Inventory - Port inventories increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventories also rose [4]. Viewpoint - There are risks of weakening demand in the off - season, and supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to decline [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, while spot prices were weakly stable. There are still expectations of price cuts in the future [6]. Supply and Demand - Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Inventories at coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Viewpoint - There are expectations of further price cuts. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were weakly stable. The basis was repaired [6]. Supply and Demand - Domestic production decreased slightly, and imported coal prices continued to decline. Demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories and port inventories increased, and downstream inventories were at a medium level [6]. Viewpoint - Spot fundamentals improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and some spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs decreased slightly, and losses decreased [7]. Supply and Demand - Production and demand both decreased [7]. Inventory - Inventories increased slightly [7]. Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction is rising, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs changed slightly, and profits improved [7]. Supply and Demand - Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [7]. Inventory - Manganese ore inventories increased, and silicomanganese inventories increased [7]. Viewpoint - Supply pressure still exists, and the price is expected to decline [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].