Core Insights - A fire incident occurred at Chengxing Co., Ltd. on October 20, 2025, but no casualties were reported [1][2] - The fire was caused by a small amount of yellow phosphorus leaking from a tank truck, which self-ignited [2] - The incident has raised concerns about the yellow phosphorus industry, which is already facing production restrictions due to environmental regulations and supply-side reforms [2] Company Overview - Chengxing Co., Ltd. has a yellow phosphorus production capacity of 160,000 tons per year, ranking among the top in the country [2] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.776 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.85% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.56 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 211.08%, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [3] Industry Context - The total production of yellow phosphorus in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 413,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.52% [2] - The average market price for yellow phosphorus was 23,300 yuan per ton, up 1.83% year-on-year [2] - The industry is undergoing significant changes due to environmental inspections and supply-side reforms, which are expected to eliminate smaller producers and enhance the competitive edge of larger companies like Chengxing [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, the supply and demand of steel were both strong, and the inventory continued to decline. However, the price was dragged down by the coking coal cost and continued to fall. Currently, the price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The demand has weakened slightly on a month - on - month basis, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports [1][3]. - In June, the supply and demand of steel were close to balance, and the inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, the demand is expected to decline. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. With the resumption of production in coking coal production areas affecting the price to weaken again, it is recommended to try shorting at the current position or sell out - of - the - money call options [1][3]. Coke Industry - As of the previous trading day's close, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot market was stable. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and the market expectation has started to improve. The supply has tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand has rigid support but the iron - water production is on a downward trend. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous trading day's close, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot market was slightly stronger. The domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal mines having better sales. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection and accidents. The demand has some resilience, and the restocking demand shows signs of recovery. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3130 yuan/ton, 3160 yuan/ton, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +50 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous values. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3020 yuan/ton, 2997 yuan/ton, and 3015 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 11 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3200 yuan/ton, 3110 yuan/ton, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous values. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3129 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 3128 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 3 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton [1][3]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The billet price was 2900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar in Jiangsu was 2954 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 87 yuan/ton, 167 yuan/ton, and 157 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +18 yuan/ton, - 2 yuan/ton, and +8 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 197 yuan/ton, 117 yuan/ton, and 197 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 8 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 18 yuan/ton [1][3]. Production - The daily average iron - water output was 242.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons. The output of the five major steel products was 881.0 tons, an increase of 12.5 tons or 1.4%. The rebar output was 217.8 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons or 2.7%, including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1.6 tons or 6.8% and an increase in converter output of 4.1 tons or 2.2%. The hot - rolled coil output was 327.2 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons or 0.6% [1][3]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1340.0 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 0.1%. The rebar inventory was 549.0 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or 0.4%. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 341.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 0.3% [1][3]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.5 tons, unchanged from the previous value. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 879.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons or 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 0.3%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.3 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 1.3% [1][3]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1094 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.9%. The prices of the 09 and 01 contracts were 1404 yuan/ton and 1443 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The weekly output of coke from all - sample coking plants was 64.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.3%. The weekly output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.4 tons, unchanged [5]. Demand - The iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 242.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 940.9 tons, a decrease of 12.0 tons or 1.3%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 113.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or 2.2%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 627.8 tons, a decrease of 6.5 tons or 1.04%. The port inventory was 200.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0 tons or 1.5% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated supply - demand gap for coke was - 5.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 3.84% [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton or 1.1%, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) was 843 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The prices of the 09 and 01 contracts were 825 yuan/ton and 861 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 23 yuan/ton and 29 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The weekly output of raw coal from Fenwei sample coal mines was 852.9 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons or 0.4%. The weekly output of clean coal was 434.9 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons or 0.5% [5]. Demand - The daily average output of coke from all - sample coking plants was 64.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.3%. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.4 tons, unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 223.3 tons, a decrease of 35.6 tons or 13.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 809.0 tons, an increase of 13.2 tons or 1.74%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 781.2 tons, an increase of 6.6 tons or 0.8%. The port inventory was 285.6 tons, a decrease of 17.7 tons or 5.8% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Steel - The steel market follows the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Rebound short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price due to the expected decline in hot - metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. For the 2509 contract, short - selling at high levels around 1380 - 1430 is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Coking Coal - Spot fundamentals have improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels around 800 - 850 for the 2509 contract is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction is rising. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the change in coal prices [7]. Silicomanganese - Supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the change in coke prices [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. The basis of steel showed a weak trend [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs changed, and the profits of some regions increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot - metal output remained unchanged, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. Steel inventories decreased slightly [1]. Viewpoint - The steel market is affected by the raw material market and seasonal factors. Production is expected to remain high, and exports rebounded from a low level [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract declined significantly [4]. Supply and Demand - Global shipments decreased slightly, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and demand is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. Inventory - Port inventories increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventories also rose [4]. Viewpoint - There are risks of weakening demand in the off - season, and supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to decline [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, while spot prices were weakly stable. There are still expectations of price cuts in the future [6]. Supply and Demand - Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Inventories at coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Viewpoint - There are expectations of further price cuts. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were weakly stable. The basis was repaired [6]. Supply and Demand - Domestic production decreased slightly, and imported coal prices continued to decline. Demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories and port inventories increased, and downstream inventories were at a medium level [6]. Viewpoint - Spot fundamentals improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and some spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs decreased slightly, and losses decreased [7]. Supply and Demand - Production and demand both decreased [7]. Inventory - Inventories increased slightly [7]. Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction is rising, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs changed slightly, and profits improved [7]. Supply and Demand - Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [7]. Inventory - Manganese ore inventories increased, and silicomanganese inventories increased [7]. Viewpoint - Supply pressure still exists, and the price is expected to decline [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].