朱光耀解释道，从增长动力看，资本、劳动力等要素投入预计可支撑经济增长3%以上，全要素生 产率的贡献率预计在2%左右，两者相结合，完全有能力实现5%以上的增长潜力。 要实现这一潜力，关键在于有效应对实际增长与名义增长之间的转化挑战。朱光耀强调，实际增长 率须加上通胀率才构成名义增长率，后者直接决定经济总规模的扩张速度。因此，他建议实施更加积极 有为的宏观政策，并将物价涨幅稳定在2%左右。 中国经济网北京12月19日讯（记者 朱晓航）中国经济网近日在《深谈》节目中专访财政部原副部 长朱光耀。朱光耀在访谈中表示，根据要素投入和全要素生产率分析，预计我国在"十五五"规划期间经 济增长的潜力在4.5%到5%之间，甚至更高。 但朱光耀同时强调，我们对此指标并不过度看重。他认为，中国作为全球最大的发展中国家这一身 份没有改变。即便未来进入高收入国家行列，也必须继续奋力前行，持续推动高质量发展，以确保如期 实现2035年远景目标。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅 ...

Group 1: Economic Transition - The "14th Five-Year Plan" achieved a compound annual growth rate of 5.4%, easing the pressure for growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[1] - The transition from "quantity increase" to "quality change" is crucial for the "15th Five-Year Plan" as it aims to reach the goal of becoming a "moderately developed country" by 2035[1] - The future growth model will shift from a single GDP-driven approach to a three-pronged approach of "real GDP + inflation + exchange rate"[1] Group 2: New Quality Productivity - Cultivating new quality productivity will be the central goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on upgrading traditional industries and developing emerging sectors[2] - The strategy includes a gradient structure of "traditional upgrades, emerging growth, and future cultivation," emphasizing the importance of new service industries[2] - The service sector is seen as a key area for the implementation of new quality productivity, with a shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people" expected[2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - There are signs of structural and local imbalances in supply and demand, necessitating "anti-involution" policies to address these issues[3] - Short-term interventions may include production limits in key industries, while long-term solutions require systemic reforms to reshape local government incentives[3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" provides a critical opportunity for reform to address these imbalances[3] Group 4: Factor Market Reform - Market-oriented reforms aim to establish an "effective market" to enhance resource allocation efficiency, which is fundamental for cultivating new quality productivity and addressing "anti-involution" issues[4] - Current challenges include a "dual-track" system in factor markets, which hinders pricing and circulation[4] - The urbanization of agricultural migrant workers is expected to be a foundational logic for the next growth phase, with approximately 250 million people still needing urban household registration[4]