朱光耀解释道，从增长动力看，资本、劳动力等要素投入预计可支撑经济增长3%以上，全要素生 产率的贡献率预计在2%左右，两者相结合，完全有能力实现5%以上的增长潜力。 要实现这一潜力，关键在于有效应对实际增长与名义增长之间的转化挑战。朱光耀强调，实际增长 率须加上通胀率才构成名义增长率，后者直接决定经济总规模的扩张速度。因此，他建议实施更加积极 有为的宏观政策，并将物价涨幅稳定在2%左右。 中国经济网北京12月19日讯（记者 朱晓航）中国经济网近日在《深谈》节目中专访财政部原副部 长朱光耀。朱光耀在访谈中表示，根据要素投入和全要素生产率分析，预计我国在"十五五"规划期间经 济增长的潜力在4.5%到5%之间，甚至更高。 但朱光耀同时强调，我们对此指标并不过度看重。他认为，中国作为全球最大的发展中国家这一身 份没有改变。即便未来进入高收入国家行列，也必须继续奋力前行，持续推动高质量发展，以确保如期 实现2035年远景目标。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅 ...

Group 1 - The medium to long-term outlook indicates that China's economy has significant growth potential, with macroeconomic stability expected by 2025, but structural differentiation will be evident, necessitating policy interventions to address weak domestic demand by 2026 [1] - Asset restructuring is crucial, with inflation expectations playing a vital role in wealth management for residents [2] - Global economic and monetary system restructuring is leading to changes in the pricing framework for assets such as gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal for economic and social development, aiming to enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [1][2][4]. Economic Growth and Domestic Demand - China has a vast domestic market with substantial growth potential, and domestic demand is crucial for economic development. The retail sales of consumer goods have grown at an average annual rate of 5.5% over the past four years, with service consumption accounting for 46.1% of total consumption [1][2]. - The low resident consumption rate indicates that the advantages of China's large market have not been fully realized, highlighting the need to stimulate domestic demand amid external uncertainties [2][4]. Strategies to Enhance Resident Consumption - To improve the resident consumption rate, it is essential to enhance consumer capacity, innovate consumption scenarios, and optimize the consumption ecosystem. Key measures include stabilizing employment and increasing income, improving income distribution, and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [4][5]. - Strengthening social security and public services can reduce precautionary savings, thereby encouraging consumption [4][5]. Systematic Policy Framework - A systematic policy framework is proposed to enhance the resident consumption rate, which includes optimizing government expenditure structure and reinforcing institutional guarantees to activate the domestic market [7][8]. - The construction of a unified national market is essential, requiring the elimination of local protectionism and market segmentation, while enhancing investment in human capital and public services [7][8]. Long-term Mechanisms and Innovation - Establishing long-term mechanisms to expand consumption is vital, with a focus on technological innovation to drive new productive forces and build a modern industrial system [8]. - Continuous reforms and opening up are necessary to activate endogenous growth dynamics and ensure sustainable economic growth [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a long-term economic policy focused on increasing residents' income rather than relying on infrastructure investment [4][9][10] - A mechanism should be established to ensure that when companies' profits grow, employee wages are also increased, based on consensus among all parties involved [4][21][25] - The current economic policy has been criticized for being overly reliant on investment, which has led to a long-term decline in the proportion of consumption in GDP [5][19][20] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of addressing unemployment data, particularly in rural areas, as many migrant workers face job losses and return to their hometowns [11][12] - It highlights the need for a structural adjustment in income distribution and social security to alleviate the burden on residents, especially in education costs [23][24] - The author argues that the current economic growth model has led to a significant decrease in residents' income, which in turn affects consumption rates [20][34] Group 3 - The article critiques the "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy, suggesting that competition should not be discouraged as it is essential for economic vitality [31] - It points out that the focus on investment has historically overshadowed the importance of income distribution, which is now gaining more attention among economists [32][35] - The author believes that without addressing income distribution issues, sustainable economic growth will be challenging to achieve [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth process is closely linked to the balance between total supply and total demand, and deviations from a reasonable growth rate can lead to macroeconomic imbalances, such as inflation or recession [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Imbalance - Economic growth that deviates from a reasonable range can result in macroeconomic imbalances, with excessive growth leading to supply shortages and inflation, while insufficient growth results in oversupply and deflation [2][3]. - Market mechanisms can exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, necessitating government intervention through scientific macroeconomic regulation to address these issues [3]. Group 2: Reasonable Economic Growth Range - The reasonable economic growth range is determined by the stage of economic development and the potential for supply growth, influenced by structural changes in the economy [5]. - China's modernization path differs significantly from Western models, requiring a unique assessment of its economic development stage [5]. Group 3: Historical Context of Modernization - China's modernization began with a low starting point in terms of per capita GDP, significantly lower than that of Western countries during their modernization phases [6]. - The initial phase of modernization in China was characterized by a lack of capital, necessitating a focus on agriculture and light industry rather than rapid industrialization [8][9]. Group 4: Role of Government and Planning - The Chinese Communist Party's leadership and the socialist system were crucial in overcoming initial capital shortages and income distribution issues, enabling rapid industrialization [10]. - The planned allocation of resources allowed for the concentration of efforts on heavy industry, facilitating the establishment of a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system [10]. Group 5: Economic Structure and Growth Potential - By 1978, the industrial value added to GDP had significantly increased, but structural imbalances persisted, particularly between heavy and light industries and between industrialization and urbanization [11]. - Addressing these structural contradictions is essential for continued modernization and economic growth, with significant potential for improvement in living standards and urbanization [12]. Group 6: Current Economic Challenges - Current economic challenges include income distribution disparities, with a Gini coefficient of 0.465 in 2023, indicating significant inequality [13]. - Despite reaching a per capita GDP of $13,000 in 2024, a substantial portion of the population still earns below the poverty line, highlighting the need for sustained economic growth to achieve common prosperity [13]. Group 7: Structural Change Potential - The potential for structural changes in income distribution, urban-rural dynamics, and regional economic disparities remains significant, necessitating a tailored approach to economic policy that considers China's unique modernization path [14]. - The analysis emphasizes that China's economic growth trajectory cannot be directly compared to Western models, as its development context and characteristics differ fundamentally [14]. Group 8: Supply Growth Potential - Assessing the current stage of China's economic development requires an analysis of supply growth potential, which is influenced by existing industrial systems and resource conditions [15]. - China possesses a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system, with production capabilities across a wide range of industries, positioning it as a global leader in industrial output [15].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting both the revenue generated from tariffs and the potential negative effects on consumers and businesses [2][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The Trump administration imposed severe tariffs, including a 145% tariff on many Chinese products and 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, generating over $700 billion in revenue since January 1 [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that tariff revenue will reach $872 billion over the next decade, accounting for about 1% of federal revenue during that period [3]. - Tariff revenue has significantly increased during Trump's first term, with an average annual collection of $79 billion since 2018, compared to $37 billion annually from 2013 to 2017 [3]. Group 2: Economic Confidence and Market Reactions - Recent positive indicators, such as rising stock prices and favorable employment reports, have boosted confidence in the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a nine-day consecutive rise, the longest since 2004 [4][5]. - Despite acknowledging the possibility of an economic downturn, Trump remains optimistic about his policies leading to historical prosperity [5]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized the long-term growth potential of the U.S. economy, advocating for investment in the U.S. and defending the administration's economic agenda [5]. Group 3: Consumer Impact and Income Disparities - A report indicates that the impact of tariffs disproportionately affects low-income households, with those earning $28,600 or less facing an additional cost equivalent to 6.2% of their income, compared to 1.7% for households earning over $914,900 [6]. - Trump claims that tariffs will help reduce income taxes for Americans earning less than $200,000, suggesting that many could see significant tax reductions [6]. Group 4: GDP Performance and Future Projections - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, indicating the uncertainty caused by tariff policies and raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown [7]. - Mnuchin projected that the administration's policies could drive GDP growth close to 3% by the same time next year [7][9]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Debt Reduction - Mnuchin stated that a smart deficit reduction plan could decrease the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $300 billion annually, which could help stabilize GDP growth [9]. - He also mentioned that reducing the deficit could eliminate credit risks associated with U.S. debt, potentially lowering interest rates and reinforcing the U.S. as a preferred destination for international capital [9].