文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting both the revenue generated from tariffs and the potential negative effects on consumers and businesses [2][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The Trump administration imposed severe tariffs, including a 145% tariff on many Chinese products and 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, generating over $700 billion in revenue since January 1 [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that tariff revenue will reach $872 billion over the next decade, accounting for about 1% of federal revenue during that period [3]. - Tariff revenue has significantly increased during Trump's first term, with an average annual collection of $79 billion since 2018, compared to $37 billion annually from 2013 to 2017 [3]. Group 2: Economic Confidence and Market Reactions - Recent positive indicators, such as rising stock prices and favorable employment reports, have boosted confidence in the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a nine-day consecutive rise, the longest since 2004 [4][5]. - Despite acknowledging the possibility of an economic downturn, Trump remains optimistic about his policies leading to historical prosperity [5]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized the long-term growth potential of the U.S. economy, advocating for investment in the U.S. and defending the administration's economic agenda [5]. Group 3: Consumer Impact and Income Disparities - A report indicates that the impact of tariffs disproportionately affects low-income households, with those earning $28,600 or less facing an additional cost equivalent to 6.2% of their income, compared to 1.7% for households earning over $914,900 [6]. - Trump claims that tariffs will help reduce income taxes for Americans earning less than $200,000, suggesting that many could see significant tax reductions [6]. Group 4: GDP Performance and Future Projections - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, indicating the uncertainty caused by tariff policies and raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown [7]. - Mnuchin projected that the administration's policies could drive GDP growth close to 3% by the same time next year [7][9]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Debt Reduction - Mnuchin stated that a smart deficit reduction plan could decrease the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $300 billion annually, which could help stabilize GDP growth [9]. - He also mentioned that reducing the deficit could eliminate credit risks associated with U.S. debt, potentially lowering interest rates and reinforcing the U.S. as a preferred destination for international capital [9].