大众品成长优先，白酒预期先行 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 2025-11-24 行 业 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 成长优先，并重视低估值及长期成长确定性较强的传统消费龙头价值修复。伊利股 份发布股东回报规划，传递稳健信号。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资建议：近期 CPI 数据催化板块预期回暖，成长为主线、重视供 需出清下的拐点机会。1）白酒关注成长及先出清标的：山西汾酒、 古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、今世缘、珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、金徽酒以及 稳健标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖；2）饮料结构性高增，重 点关注东鹏饮料、农夫山泉（港股），重视低估值高股息，重点关注 中国食品（港股）、康师傅控股（港股）、统一企业中国（港股）、中 国旺旺（港股）；3）零食及食品原料成长标的：重点关注百龙创园、 盐津铺子、卫龙美味（港股）、三只松鼠、西麦食品；4）啤酒重点 关注燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、珠江啤酒、百润股份，华润啤 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market may enter a phase of wide fluctuations, with major indices showing mixed performance in September. The current market still holds certain value based on equity risk premium, supported by a continuous "profit-making effect" that attracts short-term capital inflows. Individual investors are still in the process of entering the market, and there may be an increase in participation through funds and wealth management products in the future, although the inflow rate of medium to long-term capital may slow down, it remains a stabilizer for the market [4][5]. - Corporate earnings are still stabilizing, with the economic recovery in the third quarter progressing relatively slowly. However, some sectors have shown improvement, such as the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits from January to August rebounding and a narrowing decline in the year-on-year PPI in August. Domestic exports are expected to remain resilient, and the sustainability of domestic demand improvement may exceed expectations. Overall, with policy support, A-share earnings are expected to see slight recovery in the fourth quarter, adding new momentum to the market [5][6]. - In a liquidity-driven market, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) is likely to become a main line, with many catalysts present in this sector. If the market shifts to a fundamental-driven phase, advanced manufacturing should be a key focus. Additionally, if market fluctuations occur, attention should be paid to sectors that are lagging behind, such as high-dividend and consumer sectors [6][7]. Market Style and Industry Recommendations - The market is expected to rotate between "weak reality, strong sentiment" and "strong reality, strong sentiment," corresponding to the rotation of growth and balanced styles. In October, industry allocation should focus on electronics, power equipment, communications, media, and machinery equipment [7]. - Although the Hong Kong stock market has performed well this year, it still holds certain value. In addition to the inflow of southbound funds, a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may further enhance the external liquidity environment, leading to good performance of the index. Focus should be on Hong Kong stocks in the internet, automotive, and service consumption sectors [8].