Core Viewpoint - Huawei's automotive business derives its core competitiveness from its values centered on customer focus, dedication to employees, and value-driven principles. Unlike other automakers, Huawei leverages its ICT technology foundation and possesses three systematic capabilities: IPD (R&D), ISC (supply chain), and IPMS (marketing and sales) [2][7]. Group 1: Review of Huawei's Automotive Business (2020-2025) - The development of the Smart Selection model has outperformed the HI model, attributed to the past five years where the automotive sector has been influenced by smartphone methodologies, leading to high efficiency in partnerships, particularly with Seres, and capturing opportunities in the high-end market [3][7]. - The internal differences within the Smart Selection model arise from the increasing innovation requirements in the high-end market, making it more challenging to disrupt foreign brands, which may require more time for establishment [3][7]. Group 2: Outlook for Huawei's Automotive Business (2025-2030) - The next five years will focus on creating a commercial closed loop around computing power, algorithms, and data, as the automotive industry transitions into an era of intelligence. Smart cars will not merely replicate smartphones but will become crucial terminals in the AI era. Huawei's ability to maintain technological leadership and achieve a commercial closed loop will be key [4][7]. - Future successful smart cars must excel in three dimensions: aesthetic design, advanced technology (intelligent driving experience), and cost-effectiveness [4][7]. Group 3: Key Highlights for Huawei's Automotive Business in the Second Half of 2025 - Key highlights include the launch of the first new car under the "Shangjie" brand (in collaboration with SAIC) priced below 200,000 yuan, the updated M7 model under the "Wenjie" brand (in collaboration with Seres), the S9 shooting brake version under the "Xiangjie" brand (in collaboration with BAIC), and the first MPV model under the "Zunjie" brand (in collaboration with Jianghuai) [5][7]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a significant product year for Huawei's automotive business, with multiple new models across various brands [5][7].

Core Insights - The core competitive advantage of Li Auto lies in Li Xiang's extreme product manager mindset and rapid learning and correction ability [2][8] - The mission of Li Auto is to "create a mobile home, create a happy home," with its vision, values, and behavioral standards gradually adjusting to external environmental changes [3][21] - Li Auto is compared to "Apple and Nintendo" in terms of its unique creativity and ultimate user experience [3][14] Market Potential - Li Auto plans to focus on the SUV/MPV segment until revenue reaches 300 billion RMB, after which it will expand into the sedan category [4][8] - The market size for 200,000+ RMB SUV/MPV is expected to stabilize at 4.7 million units over the next 3-5 years, with hybrid and pure electric penetration rates projected to reach 30% and 35%, respectively [4][29] - Li Auto currently holds the top market share in the 200,000+ RMB SUV segment, with potential long-term market shares of 17%, 20%, and 25% under different scenarios, translating to SUV sales of 680,000 to 1 million units [4][57] Technology Capabilities - Li Auto has a strategic approach to core technology layout, focusing on collaboration with partners [5][8] - In electric technology, Li Auto leads the market with its range-extended electric vehicles and is advancing to the next generation of range extension technology, with REV3.0 featuring a battery capable of over 500 km pure electric range and a range extender efficiency exceeding 43% [5][8] - The company is also embracing an 800V architecture for pure electric vehicles and has established automated factories for self-developed packaging technology [5][8] Product Matrix - Li Auto's product lineup includes various models, with the L series and Mega being key offerings in the SUV and MPV categories [10][60] - The company aims to enhance its product matrix to cater to the growing demand in the 200,000+ RMB market, which is expected to see significant growth driven by new energy vehicles [29][57] Future Outlook - The 200,000+ market is projected to grow rapidly, with the contribution from new energy vehicle brands significantly increasing [29][49] - Li Auto's market share in the 200,000+ SUV segment is expected to reach 25% in the long term, with a total domestic sales ceiling estimated at 750,000 to 1.07 million units before entering the sedan market [4][57]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that China's consumption rate is only 37.2%, significantly lower than the average of 53.8% across 38 countries, indicating a need to improve the income of the middle and low-income groups to boost consumption [1][16][17] - It is noted that the low consumption rate is primarily due to a low consumption propensity, with China's consumption propensity at 62% compared to the average of 92.3% for the 38 countries [1][16] - The report suggests that increasing the tax burden on high-income earners and redistributing the revenue to lower-income groups could potentially increase total consumption by 1.6 trillion yuan, raising the consumption rate by 1.3 percentage points [1][17] Macro Commentary - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at the May FOMC meeting, expressing concerns about economic uncertainty and stagflation risks, which complicates the decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [2][18] - The commentary indicates that the market's expectation of three interest rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [2][18] Industry Insights - The report on the AI and automotive industry emphasizes the growing opportunities for leading third-party autonomous driving suppliers, driven by the demand for equal access to intelligent driving technology and performance validation [6] - It is projected that leading autonomous driving suppliers could capture about 50% of the market share in new car sales, particularly benefiting second and third-tier automakers [6] - The report also discusses the competitive landscape for domestic chip manufacturers, noting that they have made significant progress in performance and production validation, positioning themselves to compete with established players like NVIDIA [6] Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize gradually due to the introduction of incremental policies and a reduction in housing loan interest rates, with a focus on quality developers in core cities [9] - Recommendations include developers like China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, as well as property management companies such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [9] Construction Materials Industry - The report indicates that public fund holdings in the residential industry chain remain low, with a slight increase in construction and building materials allocations [8] - The concentration of holdings in the construction materials sector has increased, with 27% of stocks in this sector held by public funds [8]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 看好Robotaxi商业化落地拐点已至：政策破局×技术突破×成本拐点： 市场潜力： 2030年Robotaxi市场规模规模剑指2000亿，Robotaxi占B端共享出行比例有望提升至 36%左右。 政策加速： 一线城市先行示范北京/深圳/武汉已开放无人收费运营，政策端Robotaxi支持政策 陆续出台，2025年北京条例落地加速3000平方公里示范区建设，头部企业牌照获取进度领先 （小马/文远/萝卜覆盖超一线城市）。 技术成熟： L4能力比肩人类司机；头部企业测试平均车速达38km/h（接近出租车水平）；头 部Robotaxi企业新一代前装车型即将量产，硬件成本从上百万元下探至数十万元级别，单车盈 利模型有望跑通。 需求刚性： 劳动力缺口倒逼商业化进程；网约车司机新生代断层（21-30岁占比<20%）。 小马智行： 全球Robotaxi第一股，聚焦北上广深超一线城市快速落地，新一代低成本车型即将 落地。 文远知行： L4多场景开拓者，Robotaxi+Robobus+Robovan全矩阵布局，国内&海外双线推进。 萝卜快跑： 百度Apollo技术赋能，依托高精地图+大模 ...