证 券 研 究 报 告 启明星辰（002439）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 营收短期承压，推进"AI+" 事项： 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告：2025 年上半年，实现营业收入 11.33 亿元， 同比下滑 28.03%；归母净利润亏损 0.93 亿元，去年同期亏损 1.82 亿元；归 母扣非净利润亏损 1.64 亿元，去年同期亏损 1.00 亿元。 评论： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；政策推动不及预期；产品应用不及预期。 | 目标价：21.38 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：17.48 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 证券分析师：胡昕安 邮箱：huxinan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080009 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,315 | 3,237 | 3,6 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 浪潮信息（000977）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 业绩高增龙头稳固，"AI+"引领新机遇 目标价：76.69 元 事项： ❖ 8 月 26 日，公司披露 2025 年半年报。2025H1，公司实现营业收入 801.92 亿 元，同比增长 90.05%；利润总额达到 8.45 亿元，同比增长 42.19%；归母净利 润 7.99 亿元，同比增长 34.87%；扣非净利润 6.72 亿元，同比增长 61.10%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 114,767 | 155,629 | 189,133 | 227,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 74.2% | 35.6% | 21.5% | 20.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,292 | 2,258 | 3,336 | 4,389 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.5% | -1.5% | 47.7% | 31.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities that are immune to "involution," highlighting three high-barrier sectors: monopolistic industries like public utilities and rare earths, industries with exclusive products and global competitiveness in hard technology, and sectors where AI accelerates the replacement of repetitive tasks [1][2][3]. Group 1: High-Barrier Industries - Monopolistic barrier assets, such as public utilities (electricity, water) and strategic rare resources (like rare earths), effectively avoid intense market competition and provide stable cash flow and pricing power, making them excellent defensive investments [2][11]. - Global competitive assets are characterized by technological innovation and product exclusivity, allowing companies to successfully expand into overseas markets and create unique advantages, primarily found in high-end manufacturing and hard technology sectors [2][11]. - AI-driven efficiency revolution assets are transforming traditional industries by replacing repetitive labor, significantly enhancing productivity and accelerating the "involution" process in certain sectors [3][19]. Group 2: Market Phases of "Involution" - The "involution" market is currently transitioning from the first phase (involution 1.0) to the second phase (involution 2.0), where the focus shifts from broad industry recovery to individual stock selection based on self-discipline and competitive differentiation [4][6]. - The first phase is characterized by supply-side contraction leading to a supply-demand gap, benefiting upstream resource sectors like steel and coal [4][6]. - The second phase sees a focus on high-quality companies that can achieve market share and profitability recovery through strict production discipline, while smaller firms must innovate and create unique competitive advantages [4][6]. Group 3: Long-Term Investment Strategy - The long-term strategy emphasizes investing in industries with natural high barriers to entry, which can provide stable and higher returns compared to short-term "involution" opportunities [11][13]. - Historical data indicates that monopolistic industries, such as public utilities and strategic rare resources, have shown resilience and sustained performance compared to emerging industries that have faced downturns [11][13]. - The report suggests prioritizing sectors with high entry barriers, such as public utilities and strategic resources, which offer stable cash flows and are less affected by economic cycles [11][13].

Core Insights - The current "anti-involution" market trend represents a phase of reversal from difficulties, characterized by a clear four-stage evolution, alternating between systematic market opportunities (β) and individual stock excess returns (α) [3][5] - Investors are encouraged to focus on high-barrier assets that are naturally immune to "involution," identifying three core long-term investment themes: monopolistic barrier assets, globally competitive assets, and AI-enabled efficiency revolution assets [3][4][19] Group 1: Four Stages of "Anti-Involution" Market - The first stage (Anti-Involution 1.0) is driven by supply-side contraction expectations, benefiting upstream resource sectors like steel and coal, leading to a typical β opportunity [5][6] - The second stage (Anti-Involution 2.0) sees a shift in focus from industry-wide gains to individual stock differentiation, where leading firms gain market share through strict production discipline, creating α opportunities [6][7] - The third stage (Anti-Involution 3.0) involves a fundamental improvement in supply-demand relationships, leading to a recovery in overall corporate profits and product prices, marking a new round of market upturn [7][8] - The fourth stage (Anti-Involution 4.0) features the emergence of new core assets in a stabilized competitive landscape, driven by technological innovations and global expansion [8][9] Group 2: Current Market Positioning - The market is transitioning from Anti-Involution 1.0 to 2.0, necessitating a dual focus on both β opportunities in specific sectors and the identification of high-quality stocks with strong α characteristics [8][13] - The current "anti-involution" differs fundamentally from the 2015 policy-driven "three reductions" approach, relying more on market-driven self-discipline rather than administrative mandates [8][13] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in industries with natural high barriers to entry, such as public utilities and strategic rare resources, which provide stable cash flows and are less affected by economic cycles [19][27] - The three core elements supporting high-barrier industries include licensing barriers, resource barriers, and network effect barriers, which create exclusive pricing power and stable cash flows [27][28] - Companies that successfully "go global" and break overseas monopolies are identified as key players in the "anti-involution" narrative, particularly in high-tech sectors [29][30] Group 4: AI Empowerment - The rise of AI technology is seen as a transformative force accelerating the "anti-involution" process by enhancing productivity and driving market clearing [33][35] - Industries that can effectively leverage AI to reduce costs and reshape competitive dynamics are positioned to thrive in the evolving market landscape [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue has experienced rapid growth driven by AI servers and high-speed switches, with a 35.58% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in contract liabilities, which supports future growth certainty, with contract liabilities reaching 2.008 billion yuan, up 474.32% from the end of last year [5]. - The demand for AI servers continues to be strong, contributing to the company's robust performance in the cloud computing sector [6][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 360.76 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.113 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 35.58% and 38.61%, respectively [4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 6.60%, a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.56, 2.01, and 2.61 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25.47, 19.78, and 15.19 [8][10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leading ODM manufacturer for AI servers, benefiting from the increasing demand in the AI infrastructure market [7][8]. - The company has expanded its market share among major clients, with server revenue growth exceeding 50% in the cloud computing business and over 150% for cloud service providers [6][8]. - The company’s inventory has increased to 1229.49 billion yuan, up 44.20% from the end of last year, indicating proactive stock management in anticipation of future orders [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q2 2025 reached historical highs, driven by significant growth in AI server and switch businesses, with a revenue increase of 35.92% year-on-year [7]. - The cloud computing segment saw over 50% growth compared to the same period last year, with AI server revenue increasing by more than 60% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position and deepening customer relationships, particularly with major clients like Microsoft and AWS, which enhances its competitive edge in the AI server market [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 609,135 million - 2025E: 767,554 million - 2026E: 949,776 million - 2027E: 1,196,683 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 27.9% for 2024, 26.0% for 2025, 23.7% for 2026, and 26.0% for 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow significantly, with projections of: - 2024A: 23,216 million - 2025E: 33,929 million - 2026E: 45,125 million - 2027E: 56,692 million - The net profit growth rates are projected at 10.3% for 2024, 46.1% for 2025, 33.0% for 2026, and 25.6% for 2027 [2][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading global server manufacturer, benefiting from the growing demand for AI servers, with the global market expected to reach $158.7 billion in 2025 [7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities in the AI server sector, which are crucial for maintaining its market leadership [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in its AI server and optical module businesses, with Q2 2025 performance exceeding expectations. The forecasted net profit for H1 2025 is between 11.96 billion to 12.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12% [1][6]. - The AI server segment is driving substantial revenue growth, with a projected increase of over 60% year-on-year. The overall cloud computing business is expected to grow by more than 50% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients such as Microsoft, AWS, and NVIDIA, enhancing its competitive position in the AI server market [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 609.14 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,196.68 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 23.22 billion yuan in 2024 to 42.96 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 19% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.17 yuan in 2024 to 2.16 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [2]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the global server manufacturing sector, benefiting from the rising demand for AI infrastructure. The global AI server market is projected to grow from 125.1 billion USD in 2024 to 158.7 billion USD in 2025 [6]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings and optimizing its production capabilities, which is expected to further solidify its market share in the AI server segment [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 79.02 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%, but a decline in net profit by 25.23% to 1.572 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 22.25% year-on-year to 20.79 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 15.75% to 349 million yuan [4][6] - The company is experiencing increased financial expenses due to the acquisition of a 30% minority stake in Xinhua San, which has led to a rise in the debt ratio to 82.8% [5][6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its capital structure through a dual listing in Hong Kong, which is expected to alleviate debt burdens [5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.39%, influenced by the rising share of AI server revenue and changes in revenue structure [5] - The company’s revenue from Xinhua San reached 55.074 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.04%, with international business revenue growing by 32.44% [6][7] - The company’s inventory value reached 43.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.82%, indicating strong growth momentum in server revenue [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company is expected to benefit from domestic computing power investments, with projected net profits of 1.812 billion yuan, 2.450 billion yuan, and 3.164 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.3%, 35.2%, and 29.2% [8][10] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 89.081 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [10] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 38.0 in 2025 to 21.8 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation outlook [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 160.415 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 35.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.231 billion yuan, up 24.99% year-over-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1]. - The AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with global market size expected to reach 158.7 billion USD in 2025, benefiting the company as a leading server manufacturer [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive global production capacity, allowing for flexible adjustments to meet market demands and tariff policy changes [5]. Financial Performance - For 2025E, total revenue is projected at 767.554 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 26.0% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 28.234 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 21.6% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.42 yuan for 2025E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the server manufacturing sector, with strong partnerships with major clients like Microsoft, AWS, and NVIDIA, enhancing its competitive edge [5]. - The focus on AI and digital economy trends is driving the company's strategic investments in automation and high-precision manufacturing in various locations across China [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's new product launches, particularly in the AI server segment, to capitalize on the growing demand for high-performance computing [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company has turned a profit, with its intelligent computing machine achieving commercial success [1]. - The cybersecurity demand has weakened, leading to revenue pressure, but cost control measures have helped the company return to profitability [4]. - The company is actively enhancing its AI product layout and has made significant progress in commercializing its intelligent computing machine [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.73%, and a net profit of 0.83 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 3.71 billion yuan in the previous year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenue between 320 million to 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.43% to 24.17%, with a projected net loss of 0.75 billion to 0.65 billion yuan, but showing growth compared to the previous year's loss [3]. - The company's gross margin reached 61.04% in 2024, an increase of 0.85 percentage points from the previous year, with expectations for further improvement in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The cybersecurity business generated 2.55 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, down 11.49% year-on-year, while the cloud computing business saw a revenue increase of 10.09% to 256 million yuan [4]. - The intelligent computing machine has generated over 2 million yuan in sales in the first quarter of 2025, with signed and upcoming orders exceeding 20 million yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and industry policy implementation, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.14, 0.24, and 0.28 respectively [6][7]. - The company is focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement strategies while actively exploring new business directions in cloud security and computing [6].