工业富联（601138）2025 年半年报预告点评 强推（维持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 AI 服务器&光模块业务高增，25Q2 业绩超 预期 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 609,135 | 767,554 | 949,776 | 1,196,683 | | 同比增速(%) | 27.9% | 26.0% | 23.7% | 26.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 23,216 | 30,035 | 36,082 | 42,961 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.3% | 29.4% | 20.1% | 19.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.17 | 1.51 | 1.82 | 2.16 | | 市盈率(倍) | 21 | 16 | 13 | 11 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 79.02 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%, but a decline in net profit by 25.23% to 1.572 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 22.25% year-on-year to 20.79 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 15.75% to 349 million yuan [4][6] - The company is experiencing increased financial expenses due to the acquisition of a 30% minority stake in Xinhua San, which has led to a rise in the debt ratio to 82.8% [5][6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its capital structure through a dual listing in Hong Kong, which is expected to alleviate debt burdens [5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.39%, influenced by the rising share of AI server revenue and changes in revenue structure [5] - The company’s revenue from Xinhua San reached 55.074 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.04%, with international business revenue growing by 32.44% [6][7] - The company’s inventory value reached 43.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.82%, indicating strong growth momentum in server revenue [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company is expected to benefit from domestic computing power investments, with projected net profits of 1.812 billion yuan, 2.450 billion yuan, and 3.164 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.3%, 35.2%, and 29.2% [8][10] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 89.081 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [10] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 38.0 in 2025 to 21.8 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation outlook [12]

事项： ❖ 2025 年 4 月 29 日公司发布 2025 年一季报：25Q1 实现营收 1604.15 亿元（YOY +35.16%），归母净利润 52.31 亿元（YOY +24.99%），扣非归母净利润 49.03 亿 元（YOY +14.76%），营收利润符合业绩预告指引。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：服务器新品渗透不及预期，下游需求不及预期，市场竞争加剧 证 券 研 究 报 告 工业富联（601138）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 25Q1 业绩符合预期，全球各地构建完善产能 布局应对市场变化 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 609,135 | 767,554 | 949,776 | 1,196,683 | | 同比增速(%) | 27.9% | 26.0% | 23.7% | 26.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 23,216 | 28,234 | 35,157 | 43,354 | | 同比增速( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company has turned a profit, with its intelligent computing machine achieving commercial success [1]. - The cybersecurity demand has weakened, leading to revenue pressure, but cost control measures have helped the company return to profitability [4]. - The company is actively enhancing its AI product layout and has made significant progress in commercializing its intelligent computing machine [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.73%, and a net profit of 0.83 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 3.71 billion yuan in the previous year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenue between 320 million to 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.43% to 24.17%, with a projected net loss of 0.75 billion to 0.65 billion yuan, but showing growth compared to the previous year's loss [3]. - The company's gross margin reached 61.04% in 2024, an increase of 0.85 percentage points from the previous year, with expectations for further improvement in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The cybersecurity business generated 2.55 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, down 11.49% year-on-year, while the cloud computing business saw a revenue increase of 10.09% to 256 million yuan [4]. - The intelligent computing machine has generated over 2 million yuan in sales in the first quarter of 2025, with signed and upcoming orders exceeding 20 million yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and industry policy implementation, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.14, 0.24, and 0.28 respectively [6][7]. - The company is focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement strategies while actively exploring new business directions in cloud security and computing [6].