Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Coosea Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, focusing on the smartphone sector, with a projected revenue exceeding 2.7 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4] - Coosea Intelligent was founded in 2006 and has developed over 526 smartphone and PCB component models, with a global sales network covering more than 73 countries [4][11] - The company has shifted its IPO strategy from A-share to Hong Kong after terminating its relationship with Minsheng Securities in January 2025 [1][4] Group 2 - The average selling price of consumer smartphones has decreased from 572 yuan in 2022 to 500 yuan in 2024, while the average price of rugged smartphones has dropped from 1,246 yuan to 1,054 yuan during the same period [11][12] - Coosea Intelligent's revenue from overseas markets accounted for over 60% of total revenue in the reporting period, with sales in the U.S. representing 18.2%, 20.9%, and 24.9% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [13] - The company faces challenges in the competitive smartphone market, with net profit growth slowing down significantly despite revenue growth, indicating a need for strategic adjustments to maintain market share [15][20]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$58.78, reflecting a potential upside of 61.3% from the current price of HK$36.65 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10-15% YoY in 2025, driven by multiple growth drivers across various segments including optics, precision mechanics, electromagnetic drive, and automotive acoustics [1][9]. - Key growth drivers for 2025 include upgrades in optics specifications, increased adoption of VC in high-end models, expansion in automotive acoustics, and advancements in MEMS microphones for AI smartphones [9]. - The company has a solid product roadmap and is expanding into strategic markets such as robotics and AI glasses, with plans to acquire a stake in a Chinese automotive microphone module company to enhance its offerings [9]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 32,566 million in FY25, representing a YoY growth of 19.2% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 2,488.6 million in FY25, with a YoY growth of 38.5% [2][11]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.63 in FY23 to RMB 2.12 in FY25, indicating a growth of 38.5% [2][11]. Segment Performance - The revenue breakdown indicates that acoustics will contribute RMB 9,466 million in FY25, while optics is expected to generate RMB 5,672 million [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 16.9% in FY23 to 23.1% in FY25, reflecting operational efficiency and product mix enhancement [11][18]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15.8x for FY25, which is attractive compared to the expected EPS growth of 39% [12][18]. - The target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, assigning different P/E multiples to various business segments [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to alleviate pressure on the supply chain, particularly for Apple-related products, enhancing growth potential in the second quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the tariff from 125% to 34%, with 24% of the tariff suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff on non-US origin products [2][3]. - The joint statement from the trade talks indicates that the short-term impact of the tariffs on the supply chain is largely mitigated, allowing for a more favorable environment for growth [3]. Group 2: Impact on Apple Products - Apple has announced significant price reductions for the iPhone 16 series, with the iPhone 16 Pro Max dropping by $160 and the iPhone 16 Pro by $176, aimed at boosting sales in the second quarter [2][4]. - The price cuts are expected to enhance shipment volumes, with a reported 6% year-on-year increase in iPhone shipments during Q2, driven by promotional activities on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com [4]. Group 3: Future Growth and Innovations - The upcoming launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is anticipated to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [4][5]. - The market sentiment around emerging technologies such as humanoid robots and AI glasses is expected to positively influence the valuation of core suppliers in the Apple supply chain [5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks in the Apple supply chain include Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ), and Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminal technologies, such as humanoid robots and AI glasses, has led to an increase in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of core suppliers, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4] - Recommended core supply chain stocks include Lens Technology, Linyang Technology, Xinwanda, and Pengding Holdings [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Changes - The US has announced a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, with only 10% remaining, effectively neutralizing the short-term impact of the tariff war on the supply chain [2] Section 2: iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are aimed at increasing sales volume and supporting supply chain growth [1][3] Section 3: Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to a rise in ASP for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Section 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the positive developments, the market has not fully recovered to pre-tariff levels, but the recent price cuts and tariff negotiations suggest a potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminals like humanoid robots and AI glasses has led to a recovery in the valuation of core suppliers in the supply chain, with expectations for further valuation recovery due to the recent tariff negotiations [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US has suspended 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, with only 10% remaining, indicating that the negative impact of the tariff war on the supply chain is largely mitigated [2] iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are intended to stimulate sales and support supply chain growth [1][3] Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable iPhones is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to an increase in both volume and price for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Valuation Recovery - Despite the initial negative impact of tariff policies, the market is gradually desensitizing to these changes, and core suppliers are expected to experience a clear valuation recovery due to Apple's unexpected global price cuts [4]

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics launched the ultra-thin Galaxy S25 Edge AI smartphone, priced at $1,099, with a thickness of only 5.8mm and a weight of 163g, making it approximately 30% thinner and 25% lighter than the S25 Ultra model [1][2] - The S25 Edge features a 6.7-inch HD screen, up to 12GB of RAM, and storage options of 256GB and 512GB, with a price that is $100 more than the S25 Plus and $200 less than the S25 Ultra [2][3] - The smartphone's battery capacity is approximately 3,900mAh, which is less than the S25's 4,000mAh and the S25 Ultra's 5,000mAh, raising concerns about battery life despite claims of all-day battery support [3] Group 2 - The introduction of ultra-thin smartphones marks a shift in strategy for major manufacturers like Samsung and Apple, moving away from a focus on battery life and camera improvements to emphasize sleek designs [4][5] - The global market for AI smartphones is expected to grow significantly, with an estimated 16% of smartphone shipments being AI-enabled by 2024, projected to rise to 54% by 2028, driven by consumer demand for enhanced AI features [6] - A recent survey indicated that U.S. consumers are willing to pay an average of $9.11 per month for unlimited access to Apple Intelligence, reflecting a growing interest in AI capabilities in smartphones [7]