Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed trend, with some sectors experiencing growth while others face declines, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in various industries. Group 1: Economic Activity - The transportation department reported a 9.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow on April 4, compared to a 6% increase during the Spring Festival [2] - Cement shipment rates have risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 42.7% as of March 28, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The land premium rate in 100 cities increased to 23.12% for the week ending March 30, compared to 14.55% in March and 10.42% in February [2] Group 2: Declining Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index fell below 4% for the first time since the Spring Festival, registering at 3.84% as of March 30, down 1.34% from March 23 [3][7] - Container throughput at monitored ports decreased by 0.7% week-on-week as of March 30, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.9%, lower than the 10.3% increase in January-February [3][23] - Major commodities saw significant price drops due to tariff impacts, with COMEX gold down 1.8%, LME copper down 9.5%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil down over 10% [3][29] Group 3: Debt Issuance and Interest Rates - As of April 4, 23 provinces disclosed plans for local bond issuance, with new special bond issuance plans totaling 263.5 billion out of 856.4 billion [4][33] - Interest rates have declined due to tariff impacts, with DR001 at 1.6273%, DR007 at 1.6981%, and R007 at 1.7428%, all showing significant decreases from March 28 [4][35] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.4829%, 1.5616%, and 1.7180%, respectively, with declines noted since March 28 [4][35] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - During the Qingming Festival, cross-regional travel increased by 9.7%, with rail, water, civil aviation, and road transport all showing growth [12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell to a 3% year-on-year increase as of March 31, down from 8% previously [13] - Real estate sales remain weak, with a 29.8% year-on-year decline in residential sales in 67 cities during the first three days of April [13] Group 5: Production and Trade - The cement shipment rate has improved, while the asphalt production rate has shown a downward trend, indicating mixed signals in the construction sector [17] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 7.2% as of April 4, reflecting challenges in the shipping industry [22] - Domestic container shipping rates have increased, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 2.8% [23]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 （一）景气向上 1 ）外需：海外主要经济体制造业 PMI 均值回到荣枯线上。 2 月，美国、欧元区、日本、印度、英国均值 50.0% ，高于 1 月 49.6% ，连续第二个月回升。 2 ）土地：周度溢价率回升。 1 月 27 日 -2 月 23 日四周，百城土地溢价率平均为 9.02% ，其中近一周增 至 18.39% 。 1 月全月为 9.52% ，去年 12 月为 3.59% 。 （二）景气向下 3 ）出行链偏弱。 2 月全月， 27 城地铁日均客运较去年农历同期 +2.7% ，较公历 +18% 。航班， 2 月全 月日均 1.378 万架次，较去年 -0.9% 。 4 ）节后工地复工：仍不及去年同期。 据百年建筑调研，截至 2 月 27 日（农历正月三十），全国 13532 个工地开复工率为 64.6% ，劳务上工率 61.7% ，农历同比分别减少 12.64 个点、 12.03 个点。 债券发行情况： 1~2 月已发行新增专项债 6036 亿（去年同期 ...